{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "AYA",
  "name": "Aya Gold & Silver Inc.",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AYA/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AYA.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a1",
    "n": 1
  },
  "current_thesis": "Record Q2 printed 2026-08-13 — revenue $97M (+151% YoY), $16.82/oz AgEq cash cost against $64.22/oz realized — but with spot silver at $64.96 on 2026-08-14 the realized-price tailwind has flattened, so H2 upside now depends on Zgounder throughput and the H2-2026 Boumadine PEA. The TSX line fell 3.98% the session after the print with RSI at 68.8.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $22 breaks the advance that produced the 34.8% three-month return; secondary, the updated Boumadine PEA slipping past 2026-12-31 without a new date, or Q3 processing coming in under the 3,889 tpd Q2 rate.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "critical-materials-rare-earths",
    "bitcoin-miners"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Dual-listed: TSX quotes in CAD, US line in USD since the 2026-05-04 Nasdaq listing — check which currency any cited level refers to.",
    "Canadian foreign private issuer: quarterly financials arrive via news release and 6-K, not a 10-Q, so filing cadence differs from US peers.",
    "One producing mine (Zgounder, Morocco); Boumadine is pre-construction with a feasibility study guided to H2-2027.",
    "The Boumadine pyrite reclaim is a finite contributor — management expects roughly 20 to 24 months of it (2026-08-13).",
    "Costs are incurred largely in Moroccan dirham against USD-denominated silver revenue."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nThe narrative on offer is a single-asset Moroccan silver producer converting a historic price environment into cash, with a second, larger asset behind it. The 2026-08-13 Q2 release put hard numbers on it: revenue $97M (+151% YoY), net income $35M ($0.24 basic EPS, $0.23 diluted), operating cash flow $48M (+522% YoY), $183M cash plus $16M restricted. What changed in the last month is the source of the growth. Q2's average net realized price was $64.22/oz AgEq; Forbes Advisor's silver page put spot at $64.96/oz on 2026-08-14. The realized-price step-up that drove the first half is no longer available for free — from here the incremental dollar has to come from tonnes through the Zgounder mill and from whatever the updated Boumadine PEA describes.\n\n## Bull Case\n- Q2-2026 (released 2026-08-13): revenue $97M, +151% YoY; net income $35M vs +305% YoY; operating cash flow $48M, +522% YoY. Cash $183M plus $16M restricted.\n- Unit economics: consolidated cash cost $16.82/oz AgEq, Zgounder silver-only cash cost $17.69/oz, against $64.22/oz AgEq net realized (+90% YoY) — 2026-08-13 release.\n- Volume is still climbing: consolidated 1.7 Moz AgEq in Q2, +61% YoY; Zgounder 1.49 Moz Ag, +43% YoY and +18% QoQ; processing averaged 3,889 tpd (+7% over Q1-2026) and mining 4,880 tpd — 2026-07-08 production release.\n- Boumadine is being funded out of cash flow, not promises: 102,111 m of a planned 360,000 m infill campaign completed year-to-date as of the 2026-07-15 update, with a 2026 target of 180,000 m across the Main, Tizi and Imariren trends. Updated PEA guided to H2-2026, feasibility to H2-2027.\n- Bridge production: the Boumadine pyrite reclaim contributed 0.2 Moz AgEq in Q2 and is expected to run approximately 20–24 months (2026-08-13). Phase 2 tailings facility completed early Q3-2026.\n- Ownership base widened twice this year: Nasdaq listing 2026-05-04, addition to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF 2026-06-16.\n- Land package extended 2026-08-06 — three mining licences and 18 exploration permits in Morocco for MAD 10 million.\n\n## Bear Case\n- The commodity leg has flattened. Q2's $64.22/oz AgEq realized price sits essentially on top of the $64.96/oz spot Forbes Advisor showed for 2026-08-14; the same source dates the 2026 silver peak at $121.58 on 2026-01-29. The equity is trading within reach of its own 52-week high while the metal is far from its.\n- Sell-side has caught up. Stockanalysis.com showed 10 analysts at a Buy consensus with an average target of CA$37.72 as of 2026-08-14, against a CA$35.95 TSX close the same day.\n- The record print did not buy an up day: the TSX line closed -3.98% on 2026-08-14, the session after Q2 results.\n- Concentration. One producing mine (Zgounder), one jurisdiction (Morocco), revenue in USD against a cost base in dirham. There is no second producing asset to absorb a mill or grade disappointment.\n- Boumadine capital is undefined until the PEA lands. Cash of $183M plus current operating cash flow is a real cushion, but a large capex number arriving alongside a share price near its high is the classic setup for an equity raise.\n- No AISC figure and no full-year 2026 production or cost guidance appeared in the Q2 material reviewed here, which limits how tightly H2 can be modelled.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- Reference close 2026-08-14: $25.92 in the adjusted daily series; RSI(14) 68.8; three-month return +34.8%.\n- The TSX line closed CA$35.95 on 2026-08-14 (-3.98% that session) against a 52-week range of CA$11.45–40.16; market capitalisation CA$5.39B on 144.04M shares outstanding.\n- Life-cycle label: **MATURING**. The dates carry it — the two structural re-rating events (Nasdaq listing 2026-05-04, GDX inclusion 2026-06-16) are behind the tape; the 2026-07-08 production record and the 2026-08-13 financial record both landed; the 2026-08-14 reaction was negative; and the consensus target sits only marginally above the TSX close. The story still works, but it is no longer new to the people who set the price.\n- Crowding observables, stated as observables: ten covering analysts clustered on Buy; a passive gold-miner ETF bid in place since 2026-06-14 window; RSI near 69 after a 34.8% three-month move; the largest scheduled information event of the quarter already discharged on 2026-08-13, leaving a thin calendar into September. No insider transaction record or equity issuance was reviewed for this note; an at-the-market programme or bought deal disclosed alongside the PEA would be the flow item that changes the supply picture.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **2026-08-15 to 2026-09-14:** no company-scheduled event confirmed. Q2-2026 results were released 2026-08-13; the next hard company date is the Q3 production statement.\n- **~2026-10-07 (est.):** Q3-2026 production release. The Q2 equivalent landed 2026-07-08; this is where the 3,889 tpd processing rate is either extended or not.\n- **~2026-11-12 (est.):** Q3-2026 financial results.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **H2-2026 (date unannounced):** updated Boumadine PEA — updated resource model, revised mine plan, revised metal prices and concentrate payable assumptions (confirmed on-track 2026-07-15). *(passed 31d ago)*\n- **H2-2027:** Boumadine feasibility study, per the 2026-07-15 update. *(passed 31d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\nThe structural break to watch is throughput, because the price contribution has already been collected. If the Q3 production release around early October shows Zgounder processing below the 3,889 tpd Q2 rate, or the Boumadine reclaim contribution falling short of the 0.2 Moz AgEq quarterly run-rate, the growth in revenue stops being volume-led and the multiple has nothing left to lean on with realized prices near spot. On price, a weekly close below $22 breaks the advance that produced the 34.8% three-month return and would mark the trend leg as over. Two further conditions would each do damage independently: an updated Boumadine PEA that slips past 2026-12-31 without a fresh date, and a PEA that arrives carrying capex large enough to require equity — the latter would be visible immediately as a bought-deal or ATM filing. On the other side, spot silver sustaining materially above the $64.22/oz AgEq Aya realized in Q2 would restore the price leg and reset this read.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- The name is a high-beta silver expression first and a company second: revenue is silver-dominant, and the 2026-06-16 addition to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF means it now also absorbs generalist gold-miner ETF flows rather than only silver-specific ones.\n- Spot silver at $64.96/oz on 2026-08-14 (Forbes Advisor) is the single most important exogenous input; the Q2 realized $64.22/oz AgEq is the reference point against which H2 revenue gets marked.\n- Dual listing means USD returns on the Nasdaq line carry USD/CAD alongside the equity move; the TSX quote and the US quote will diverge on FX alone.\n- Cost exposure is Moroccan dirham against USD revenue, so MAD strength compresses the $16.82/oz AgEq cash cost advantage without anything changing at the mine.\n- Read alongside the primary silver producers and SIL/GDX rather than against diversified base-metal names — jurisdiction (Morocco) is idiosyncratic and will not correlate with Mexican or Peruvian permitting news.",
  "first_seen": "2026-08-12",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-15T07:13:09+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-15",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}