{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "HAE",
  "name": "Haemonetics Corporation",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HAE/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HAE.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Plasma/IVIG re-rating has stalled just under YTD highs (~$76) as sell-side finishes flipping from cuts to raises — now the base case rather than an edge. Citi's July 8 \"downside 90-day catalyst watch\" (PT $79, Neutral) frames the Aug 6 Q1 FY2027 print as a beat that may already be priced. Binary is inside 30 days; Interventional Technologies still unproven.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $70 forfeits the reclaimed May–June breakout shelf and confirms the recovery leg has failed; secondarily, an Aug 6 Q1 FY2027 print showing Interventional erosion re-accelerating without a plasma or Hospital offset.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-08-06",
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "medtech-diagnostics"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Q4 FY2026 reported 2026-06-05: rev $346M (+5% reported, +9% organic ex-CSL), adj EPS $1.29, GAAP net loss $20.1M/-$0.44 (impairment qtr). FY2026 rev $1.3B, adj EPS $4.96.",
    "FY2027 guide: +4-7% reported rev, +3-6% organic, adj EPS ~in line with rev, ~80% FCF conversion, op margin +50-100bps. Next binary = Q1 FY2027 print ~early Aug 2026 (outside 30d).",
    "CSL Plasma declined to renew U.S. disposables supply pact; drag fully annualized in FY2026 — FY2027 is first clean-comp year.",
    "IVT is the swing factor: Q4 vascular closure -8%, MVP/MVP XL -6% EP. Watch for stabilization. Raymond James cut to Outperform-from-Strong-Buy; JPM to Neutral; Citi Neutral $70 (2026-05-28).",
    "Completed $300M buyback (~8.68% of shares). Analyst PT cluster $76-85 (Barrington $89, BTIG $85, Baird $81) vs ~$66-70 spot. 52wk range $47.39-$87.30.",
    "Wrong archetype for aggressive sizing — defensive med-tech turnaround, MATURING theme, no narrative velocity. Probe only until growth re-accel + IVT stabilization confirmed.",
    "FY2027 guide: +4-7% reported rev, +3-6% organic, adj EPS broadly in line with rev, ~80% FCF conversion, op margin +50-100bps. FY2027 = first clean-comp year (CSL Plasma drag fully annualized in FY2026).",
    "Narrative shift mid-June 2026: Mizuho raised PT $70→$85 (Outperform) on IVIG-driven plasma demand (2026-06-15); BTIG reiterated Buy $84 (2026-06-26). Average analyst PT ~$87.50, range $70-$108. Sell-side flipped from cutting (RayJay, JPM $62, Citi $70 on 2026-05-28) to raising.",
    "Stock +46% since mid-May to ~$77 (June 25 close $77.62, +6.5% on day) vs SPY +3.5%. 52wk range $47.32-$87.32 — now near upper third, ~$10 below the high.",
    "IVT is the swing factor: Q4 FY2026 vascular closure -8%, MVP/MVP XL -6% EP. Management claim '80% of decline lapped/non-material' is forward, not a result — needs Q1 FY2027 proof.",
    "Completed $300M buyback (~8.68% of shares) — EPS tailwind into clean-comp year. Hospital FY2026 rev $588M, +4% organic (TEG hemostasis leadership).",
    "Next binary = Q1 FY2027 print ~2026-08-11 (est.), outside 30d. No hard catalyst in next 30 days — momentum into a vacuum, mean-reversion risk toward $70 retest.",
    "Wrong archetype for aggressive sizing — defensive legacy pivot, low velocity, limited peer-cluster confirmation. Fresh chase at ~$77 near the high is ~1:1 R/R; cleaner re-entry is a $70 breakout-retest hold. Probe only.",
    "Q1 FY2027 print CONFIRMED 2026-08-06, 6:00am ET (call 8:00am ET) — StockTitan/BioSpace. Binary is inside 30d as of mid-July; earnings blackout begins ~Aug 1 (within 3 trading days). First clean-comp quarter + first hard IVT-stabilization read.",
    "Citi (Joanne Wuensch) 2026-07-08: PT $70→$79, maintains Neutral, INITIATED 90-day DOWNSIDE catalyst watch — shares at YTD highs, 'may beat-and-raise but may not be enough given the shift in expectations.' Tactical caution into the print.",
    "Price $76.19 (2026-07-10 close, +1.6% day), mkt cap ~$3.46B, P/E ~37x. 52wk $47.32–$87.32; ~13% below high. Flat vs $77.62 (June 25) — recovery leg stalled, not extending.",
    "IVT is the swing factor: Q4 FY2026 vascular closure -8%, MVP/MVP XL -6% EP. Mgmt '~80% of decline lapped/non-material' is forward, needs Aug 6 proof.",
    "Sell-side flipped from cuts to raises: Mizuho $70→$85 (6/15), BTIG $84 (6/26), Citi $79 (7/8). Consensus median ~$83–90, range $74–108, 0 Sells. Raises restore spring scars (JPM Neutral $62, RayJay cut from Strong Buy, 5/28) rather than open new upside.",
    "FY2027 guide (6/5): +4–7% reported rev, +3–6% organic, adj EPS ~in line with rev, ~80% FCF conversion, op margin +50–100bps. First clean-comp year (CSL Plasma drag annualized in FY2026).",
    "Completed $300M buyback (~8.68% of shares). Hospital FY2026 rev $588M, +4% organic (TEG leadership). Defensive legacy-pivot — low narrative velocity, re-rates on quarterly proof not weekly momentum. Stretched near highs into a binary print = chase into extension; stand aside for a $70-shelf pullback or a post-print base.",
    "REDACTION: dossier is published publicly — never echo internal decisions/holdings. Frame all levels as research conditions."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nThe plasma re-acceleration re-rating that carried HAE from the May washout at $47.32 into the high-$70s has stalled. At $76.19 (July 10 close), the stock is roughly flat over two weeks and holding just under its 52-week high of $87.32, no longer extending. The narrative is intact and now widely held: IVIG-driven plasma collection lapping the lost CSL Plasma disposables pact, with fiscal 2027 the first clean-comp year. That ubiquity is the risk. Sell-side has finished flipping from spring cuts to summer raises, and Citi's July 8 move — target lifted to $79 from $70, still Neutral, paired with a \"downside 90-day catalyst watch\" — argues a beat-and-raise at the August 6 Q1 FY2027 print \"may not be enough given the shift in expectations.\" The easy recovery off the low has been paid out; what remains is a binary earnings event into a stretched tape, with Interventional Technologies the unproven variable. This is a low-velocity defensive pivot re-rating on quarterly proof, and the next proof is a coin-flip four weeks out.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Plasma re-acceleration is now the base-case story (Q4 FY2026, 2026-06-05):** FY2026 Plasma was -2% reported but +20% organic ex-CSL ($524M revenue). FY2027 is the year reported growth reconnects to that underlying strength as the CSL drag fully annualizes.\n- **Sell-side finished flipping from cuts to raises:** Mizuho $70→$85 Outperform on IVIG-driven plasma demand (2026-06-15); BTIG Buy $84 (2026-06-26); even Neutral-rated Citi lifted its target $70→$79 (2026-07-08). Consensus median sits ~$83–90 (range $74–108) with zero Sell ratings.\n- **FY2027 guide points to inflection (2026-06-05):** +4–7% reported revenue, +3–6% organic, adjusted EPS broadly in line with revenue, ~80% FCF conversion, operating margin +50–100bps — a return to growth after two transition years.\n- **Float shrinking into the clean-comp year:** completed a $300M buyback retiring ~8.68% of shares, a mechanical EPS tailwind. Hospital remains the engine — FY2026 revenue $588M, +4% organic, with TEG hemostasis leadership (2026-06-05).\n- **Even the cautious desk concedes the operations (2026-07-08):** Citi's own note allows the company \"may beat-and-raise\" on August 6 — the trajectory is not in dispute, only whether it is priced.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Citi's July 8 \"downside 90-day catalyst watch\" names the core risk:** shares at YTD highs, and a likely beat-and-raise \"may not be enough given the shift in expectations.\" The story has become consensus, and consensus into a print is thin reward for binary risk (2026-07-08).\n- **Interventional Technologies remains unproven (2026-06-05):** Q4 FY2026 vascular closure -8%, MVP/MVP XL -6% in electrophysiology. Management's claim that ~80% of the decline is lapped or non-material is a forward assertion the August 6 print must validate.\n- **The move flattened rather than accelerated:** $76.19 (July 10) sits below $77.62 (June 25), ~13% under the $87.32 high, with momentum cooling into the catalyst. A defensive medtech name that stops making higher highs before an earnings binary skews toward mean reversion.\n- **The re-rating already happened:** +46% off the low with a ~37x P/E means most of the recovery multiple is in the price. There is little cushion if Q1 disappoints on IVT.\n- **The raises restore spring scars rather than open new ground:** JPMorgan sits at Neutral $62, and Raymond James cut from Strong Buy to Outperform and pulled HAE from its Current Favorites over IVT execution (2026-05-28). The bull targets largely recover lost ground.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- Trading $76.19 (July 10 close, +1.6% on the day), market cap ~$3.46B, P/E ~37x. 52-week range $47.32–$87.32 — upper third, ~13% below the high and ~61% above the low.\n- The reclaimed May–June breakout shelf near $70 is the structural line and the pivot Citi anchored its raised $79 target to; a failed print retests it.\n- Two-week action is a stall just under YTD highs: the +46% recovery leg has gone sideways rather than pushing toward the high. No pullback to moving-average support, and no fresh breakout above $80 either.\n- It re-rates on quarterly proof points, not weekly narrative velocity — a defensive legacy pivot, not a theme leader.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **2026-08-06 (confirmed):** Q1 FY2027 results, 6:00am ET, conference call 8:00am ET. The binary — first clean-comp quarter (CSL Plasma drag fully annualized) and the first hard read on whether Interventional Technologies has stabilized. This is the event Citi's downside watch targets. Earnings blackout begins ~Aug 1 (within 3 trading days).\n- No FDA/PDUFA or other dated binary in the window; single-stock earnings risk dominates.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **2026-07-08 → early August:** Citi's 90-day downside catalyst watch is live; expect further sell-side positioning notes into the print. *(passed 20d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n- A weekly close below $70 forfeits the reclaimed May–June breakout shelf and confirms the recovery leg has failed; a defended $70 keeps the base intact and the pivot thesis alive.\n- To the upside, a clean weekly close above $80 on volume would reopen the path to the $83–90 consensus cluster and the $87.32 high, turning a stalled recovery back into an accelerating one worth pressing.\n- Fundamentally, the August 6 print is the arbiter: IVT vascular-closure and EP declines lapping as guided, plus Plasma organic strength holding, validates the pivot; renewed IVT erosion without a plasma or Hospital offset breaks it regardless of the tape.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- Moves on its own fundamentals and the plasma end-market; low beta to the AI/semis complex, closer to a portfolio-ballast profile than a momentum vehicle.\n- Plasma collection tracks IVIG/immunoglobulin demand — read-through from CSL, Grifols and Takeda plasma commentary. CSL is both a demand signal and a lost-customer overhang via the non-renewed U.S. disposables pact.\n- The Hospital segment (TEG hemostasis, vascular closure, EP) tracks elective-procedure volumes and hospital capex cycles rather than macro-rate sensitivity.\n- Over the next month, idiosyncratic earnings risk into August 6 outweighs sector or index correlation.\n\n## Sources\n- Q1 FY2027 date: [BioSpace](https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/haemonetics-sets-date-for-publishing-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-results-august-6-2026), [StockTitan](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/HAE/haemonetics-sets-date-for-publishing-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-yrgjsj97ghh7.html)\n- Citi catalyst watch: [TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/citi-adds-downside-90-day-catalyst-watch-on-haemonetics-thefly-news), [GuruFocus](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8948974/haemonetics-hae-analyst-adjusts-price-target-despite-neutral-rating)\n- Price/quote: [StockAnalysis](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hae/)\n- Q4 FY2026 8-K: [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000313143/000031314326000057/hae-20260605.htm)",
  "first_seen": "2026-06-07",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-07-12T12:40:12+00:00",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}