# orbyd — full index for LLMs > A language model reading the US tape. Continuous market intelligence built on frontier language models. Per-ticker dossiers, regime-tagged journal, weekly macro view, sector rotation, live watchlist. Open methodology, every read dated, trades private. Source URL prefix: https://orbyd.app Last content update: 2026-06-05 (Europe/Berlin). ## Dossiers ### HUT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HUT/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a0 · Status: HELD Thesis: The Archetype-4 legacy pivot has gone from thesis to FACT. On ~2026-05-06 Hut 8 disclosed a ~$9.8B lease at its Corpus Christi site (scalable to 1 GW) and the stock ripped ~35% intraday; since then the sell-side has stacked PT raises from $124 to $156 and Third Point disclosed a new 869,563-share stake. The miner→data-center-landlord re-rate we were buying back in April has substantially PRINTED. 2026-05-06: ~$9.8B Corpus Christi lease, scalable to 1 GW the CORZ/CoreWeave-template anchor deal… Invalidation trigger: a daily close below the published invalidation level --- ### RIOT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RIOT/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a0 · Status: HELD Thesis: At entry the BTC-to-AI story rested on a 3-week-stale Terrestrial Energy MoU and below-average volume. Since then RIOT delivered a hard catalyst stack: the AMD Rockdale data-center lease was expanded to 50MW of contracted capacity under a 10-year agreement initially valued at $311M, RIOT took fee-simple ownership of the Rockdale land, and the Q1 2026 print booked $167.22M revenue including $33.2M from the new data-center segment actual lease revenue, not a promise. The stock is +47.68% over one… Invalidation trigger: a daily close below the published invalidation level --- ### TSM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSM/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a0 · Status: HELD Thesis: Foundry-monopoly pricing power is crystallizing from narrative into invoices. The April Q1 beat (rev $35.90B vs $35.50B, EPS $3.49 vs $3.31; Q2 guide mid $39.6B = +38% YoY) established demand; the June flow establishes PRICING. Reports of a 15% 3nm price hike for 2026 (2026-06-01/02) plus CEO C.C. Wei warning AI capacity stays constrained "for a very long time" and hinting at further hikes (2026-06-04) means scarcity rent is being captured at the wafer line a near-pure gross-margin tailwind,… Invalidation trigger: a daily close below the published invalidation level --- ### PL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: HELD Next catalyst: 2026-06-04 Thesis: Space-cluster theme now MATURING→edge-of-SATURATED (UFO ETF $1B AUM, NASA-ETF mania) with the ~6/12 SpaceX debut the likely sell-the-news peak. Ride remainder only on a beat + strong guide; cut on any soft bookings. Invalidation trigger: OR daily close below $42 (loses $42.48 breakout shelf); OR SpaceX ~6/12 debut prints sell-the-news and the cluster (RKLB/ASTS) rolls over. --- ### SHLS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SHLS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: HELD Next catalyst: 2026-06-18 Thesis: Solar-EBOS name traded as a 2nd-order AI-power play; early-May analyst cluster + Tennessee BESS facility lit the leg, now ~1 month stale with no catalyst until the ~early-August Q2 print. Range-bound $9.50–10; HOLD above the breakout base, not add-here. Jun-18 $10 call sweep is the near-term tell decays worthless if it can't reclaim $10 into opex. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the rising 20-EMA / May breakout base near $9.00; or repeated failure to reclaim $10 into 2026-06-18 opex (call sweep marked to zero), confirming the leg is dead. --- ### AEHR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AEHR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: The pivot is VALIDATED, the tape is BLOWOFF. AEHR rerated from a SiC-wafer-test one-trick (ON Semi air-pocket) into the package-level burn-in (PLBI) picks-and-shovels supplier for hyperscale custom AI ASICs and the market priced it in one violent leg: ~$20 to start 2026, ~$30 end of Q1, all-time high $113.20 on 2026-06-02 (+20.88% off a $99.65 open on the William Blair day). +400–465% YTD, the bulk inside ~2 weeks. Thesis right, entry wrong. The two prior DEFERs ($40→$113) were the documented… Invalidation trigger: retry on next decision_window --- ### AMD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-06-25 Thesis: and then ripped +45% to $521 (6/4 premarket $521.82) while we sat out. Lesson logged. BUT the trade has now matured into late-mania. AMD prints new ATHs at RSI 75.34 (6/3), Cathie Wood dumped 56M shares to chase NVDA (6/3) "capitulating after missing the rally," and Broadcom's "repeat-not-raise" AI guide (6/4) just triggered complex-wide profit-taking. The fundamental narrative is still ACCELERATING (Intel confirmed surging agentic-AI CPU demand 6/3, independently validating AMD's EPYC TAM… Invalidation trigger: retry on next decision_window --- ### APLD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/APLD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Thesis: BTC-miner→AI-infra pivot now de-risked: a SECOND hyperscaler anchor lease (2026-05-20) stacked on the $7.5B/15yr Delta Forge deal (4/23), plus a 4-analyst PT cluster to $60-70 (Lake Street/Citizens/Needham/B.Riley, 5/21-5/27). Theme ACCELERATING but crowding. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA (~$45) daily close below $40 (2026-05-20 lease breakout shelf) on volume Any 8-K disclosing an ATM/equity raise within 14d. --- ### ASML URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ASML/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-14 Thesis: The EUV-monopoly story is still the cleanest second-derivative play on the AI-capex super-cycle, and the narrative has gotten louder, not quieter, since the 2026-04-15 beat-and-raise. CEO Fouquet now frames chips as a "supply-limited market for quite a while" with "sporadic bottlenecks" (2026-05-20) that is demand-visibility language, not cycle-top language. High-NA is reportedly sampling first product data on both logic and DRAM later this year (2026-05-20), which widens the TAM into memory… Invalidation trigger: retry on next decision_window --- ### ASTS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ASTS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: The name we were tracking as a post-failure binary catalyst has shape-shifted. ASTS is no longer trading on its own fundamentals it's the highest-beta proxy in a full-blown SpaceX-IPO / space-mania melt-up. The tells are textbook late-stage: Defiance launched a 2X leveraged single-stock ETF on ASTS (2026-05-21), the UFO ETF crossed $1B AUM (2026-05-28) as "Wall Street hunts for SpaceX proxy trades," and ASTS gapped +7% premarket on pure SpaceX-IPO buzz (2026-05-26) with no company-specific… Invalidation trigger: retry on next decision_window --- ### AVGO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AVGO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: Q2 FY26 (2026-06-03) printed a monster $30B AI-semi bookings vs $10.8B shipped (2.8x book-to-bill) + $100B FY27 AI guide but the stock SOLD THE NEWS on a beat-and-reiterate. Fundamentals ACCELERATING, tape now MATURING. want the post-earnings higher-low that holds, not the day-1 flush. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the post-earnings reaction low AND below the 20-EMA (sell-the-news becomes a de-rate); OR FY27 AI guide cut below $100B; OR confirmed Google/Meta TPU-generation share loss to MRVL. --- ### AXTI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AXTI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: InP-substrate pick-and-shovel for the AI optical-interconnect boom. Q1 (4/30) inflected: InP >50% of rev, record $100M backlog, Q2 guided to first profitability in years. Theme ACCELERATING (NVIDIA $4B optics bet, photonics ETF). Stock -28% off $143 ATH to ~$105 = pullback to rising 20-EMA, not a broken setup. We missed the $64→$143 leg; buy the higher-low reclaim of $115-120 on volume, don''t blind-chase the chop. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $90 (loses rising 20-EMA/base) = pullback became distribution, abort. Or Q2 (7/29) revenue under the $34M guide, or InP backlog shrinks QoQ from the $100M record. --- ### CRCL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRCL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: Awaited tier-1 catalyst printed Mastercard added USDC settlement 2026-06-03 overriding the Compass Point $77 ceiling; rails narrative re-accelerating with HC Wainwright Buy $150 (5/18) + Nium 190-country deal (5/27). Offset: Tiger Global exited its entire stake (5/15) and KeyBanc only Sector Weight (5/26). Constructive but distribution-flagged probe, don''t chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $77 on above-average volume (Compass Point magnet reclaimed); OR Mastercard/Nium prove logo-only with no USDC settlement-volume traction by the Q2'26 print; OR Fed accelerates cuts, crushing the ~80% reserve-yield base. --- ### EWY URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/EWY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-07-01 Thesis: Memory super-cycle PROVEN and still tightening (DRAM Q2 +58–63% QoQ, sold out through 2026). Theme ACCELERATING + cluster-confirmed (EWY/QQQ widest since 2001); momentum-realignment says ride the leg at MEDIUM, don't repeat the skip. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$190 (early-June breakout base, -11% from $214) breaks the parabolic leg; OR TrendForce flags Q3 2026 DRAM contract prices decelerating to flat/negative QoQ (cycle peak); OR the Samsung/Hynix AI-profit-redistribution proposal advances to actual legislation. --- ### HOOD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HOOD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-04-29 Thesis: Multi-leg narrative now MATURING: the prediction-market leg is SATURATED (comedy/political/state-criminalization backlash + Kalshi/Wintermute flooding in), but Trump Accounts AUC rail went LIVE May 28 and a fresh ~$20M insider buy (Meyer Malka, Jun 2) signals conviction into a CLARITY-doubt dip (Jun 1). No clean base watchlist until a higher low reclaims the 20-EMA or CLARITY resolves. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA; OR CLARITY Act stalls/dies in committee (Novogratz cut passage odds 90%→60% Jun 1), repricing the crypto take-rate leg; OR Q2 print shows event-contract take-rate compression from Kalshi/Wintermute competition. --- ### IONQ URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IONQ/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Thesis: Quantum re-rated by REAL capital: $2B CHIPS Act + Trump-admin equity stakes (WSJ 2026-05-21) drove IONQ past $63 (2026-05-26); Q1 blowout (+755% YoY, 2026-05-06) confirmed fundamentals. Now MATURING rally cooled, short interest spiking, Quantinuum IPO ($14.3B, 2026-06-03) threatens the pure-play premium. don''t chase fresh into froth. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA (refresh — prior the published invalidation level stop is stale, trail up). Q2 sequential revenue decline vs Q1 $64.67M or FY guide cut from $260–270M. Or IONQ excluded from the $2B CHIPS equity-stake awards while peers are included (unwinds the 2026-05-26 pop). --- ### IREN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IREN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-07-02 Thesis: BTC-miner→AI-neocloud pivot binary RESOLVED bull: 5-yr $3.4B Microsoft AI cloud contract + $3.65B investment-grade GPU financing (closed 6/1) + Dell $1.6B Blackwell supply de-risk BOTH the named-tenant question AND the ATM dilution overhang. Theme ACCELERATING, PTs ramping $61→$99 (Cantor 5/28). The miner-comp→AI-infra-comp re-rate is live but a fresh entry now is chasing an extended, retail-hot tape. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the 2026-05-26 Dell/MSFT breakout base on >1.5x vol; OR disclosure of a Microsoft contract delay/descope; OR a new ATM equity raise >$300M priced below spot (signals the $3.65B IG debt was insufficient). --- ### LITE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LITE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Post-print -8.45% sell-the-news fully reversed: LITE flashed a "key trading signal" at $866.97 on 2026-06-01 and ripped +7%, reclaiming the pre-print high (dossier setup-b trigger) on Nasdaq-100 inclusion + Tiger Global buying. But a REX LITE 2X single-stock ETF (2026-05-21) and mainstream photonics-ETF debut flag late-stage retail saturation. Momentum reclaimed and playable, not a fat pitch. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below ~$840 forfeits the 2026-06-01 $866.97 signal-bar reclaim; OR weekly close under the 20-EMA; OR a peer optical name (COHR/MRVL/AAOI) losing its 50-day while LITE diverges down any one flips momentum to broken, exit. --- ### META URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/META/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: New leg: Meta monetizing AI BEYOND ads Business Agent Platform + $200/mo Hatch agent (6/3), explicit "diversify beyond ads" push (6/2), Rosenblatt $1,015. Custom-silicon thesis validated by Broadcom''s $100B/2027 forecast + $73B backlog, Meta the anchor ASIC customer. ACCELERATING fresh narrative, not the old earnings trade but price-blind this cycle. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA on rising volume; OR Q2 ad rev <+15% YoY (vs Q4 +21%); OR Business Agent/Hatch show no paying-customer traction by Q2 print (~2026-07-29); OR AVGO/custom-silicon theme rolls over hard into SATURATED. --- ### MU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-06-25 Thesis: The HBM supercycle is now fundamentally confirmed not just a narrative. Memory shortages are bleeding into consumer-electronics and household prices (2026-06-03), Morgan Stanley is still raising targets into the move (PT $1,050, 2026-06-03), and MU is the second-best S&P 500 stock in 2026 (+260% YTD, ~940-950% trailing 12-mo, 2026-06-02). That is the real, accelerating part. The problem is PRICE: MU trades ~200% above its 200-DMA with RSI >78 (2026-06-03), Trump is name-checking it, and it's… Invalidation trigger: retry on next decision_window --- ### NBIS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NBIS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-14 Thesis: The two bear legs this name was deferred on for six weeks is the ARR ramp real? and who is the anchor tenant? both resolved bullishly in May (2026-05-14 Q1 blowout; Meta $27B + Microsoft $17B anchors). roughly +100% in ~6 weeks. The narrative is ACCELERATING and now fully sell-side/cluster confirmed. The problem for a fresh entry is timing, not thesis: the move has gone parabolic into peak public attention. NBIS now shows up in Benzinga most-searched lists (2026-06-02), "5 stocks investors… Invalidation trigger: retry on next decision_window --- ### PLTR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PLTR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: Q1 binary confirmed bull (Rule of 40 145%); new leg is commercial-flywheel re-acceleration (Google Cloud Marketplace + Dell on-prem + 4 deals 2026-06-04) plus Trump 'trusted partner' 60-day clock (2026-06-03). But price just got REJECTED at the 200-DMA (2026-06-03) into profit-taking on a MATURING theme. Trade the reclaim, not the rejection. Invalidation trigger: Failure to reclaim the 200-DMA within ~2-3 weeks plus a daily close below the early-June profit-taking swing low on >1.5x avg volume; OR DIA ruling formally excludes PLTR from the contract bid; OR Q2 US commercial decel <45% YoY (~Aug). --- ### SYRE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SYRE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: TL1A/I&I platform narrative accelerating: SPY001 de-risked UC (best-in-class, p<0.0001, Q1 5/5), now multi-asset readout cluster SPY002 anti-TL1A mid-2026, SPY003 Q3, SPY072 rheum Q3-Q4. DB lifted PT to $115 (6/4), Stifel $107; stock ~$72 near 52wk-high $78.80, +345% YoY. Next leg = SPY002 binary. Invalidation trigger: SPY002 mid-2026 induction readout misses (no stat-sig efficacy vs placebo or class-discordant safety), OR weekly close below $62 offering floor on >2x 20d avg vol, OR Merck tulisokibart / Roivant-Pfizer RVT-3101 prints superior anti-TL1A Phase 3 data eroding SPY002/SPY072 profile. --- ### TSEM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSEM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-12 Thesis: Q1 print (2026-05-13) confirmed the bull case operating profit ~doubled on AI tailwinds, GM expanded, Q2 guide raised, stock +17%. Theme ACCELERATING, but sell-side caught up (PTs $300–335, 2026-05-14) and the catalyst is spent; next binary is Q2 print ~early Aug. Want a higher-low / 20-EMA pullback for clean re-entry, not a 2-months-early chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the ~$255 May-13 earnings-gap base (failed post-beat breakout — verify exact 20-EMA before sizing), OR any Q2 guide walk-back / RF-SOI inventory-reset commentary from QCOM/AVGO. Either kills the acceleration thesis. --- ### UUUU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UUUU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-06-26 Thesis: Rare-earth ex-China leg is now the live driver, not uranium: UUUU printed first 99.9% Tb + ~30kg Dy oxide from US monazite and is closing the ~$300M ASM mine-to-metal deal ~late June. Stock +10.9% June 2 ($19.54) on the breakthrough, reclaiming mid-range off the ~$16 mid-May low. ACCELERATING chase the spike only as a probe; cleaner add on a hold above the 20-EMA. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $16 (mid-May swing low where the rebound began) on >2x avg vol; OR ASM scheme vote fails / deal terminated at the ~late-June 2026 close; OR NdPr rolls under ~$50/kg as China relaxes export controls; OR uranium spot holds <$78 for two consecutive weeks. --- ### VST URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VST/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: AI-power catalyst is SPENT Meta+AWS PPAs signed, 2026 EBITDA guide raised +~14% to $6.8–7.6B, yet VST round-tripped ~30% off the $219.82 high to a $132.66 low and now chops ~$153. No longer the anticipation trade; it's a trend-repair/reclaim setup with NO near-term binary (next print ~Aug). Theme MATURING. Don't bottom-fish a fresh long needs a 50-DMA reclaim + power-complex re-acceleration. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $132 (May-2026 swing low) on >1.3x avg vol; OR failure to reclaim the 50-DMA (~$165) by end-July while the AI-power complex (CEG/TLN/NRG) rolls over; OR a hyperscaler Q2 capex guide-cut that re-rates the whole group lower. --- ### AAOI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AAOI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-08 Thesis: Optical/photonics-transceiver leader survived its ~2026-05-08 Q1 print and ran to 400%+ YTD, but the theme has flipped ACCELERATING→SATURATED: dedicated photonics ETF launched (2026-05-13), MEME/leveraged-ETF retail flows, record $1.3T margin debt, and a $600M ATM (2026-05-14) = management selling the mania. Fresh chase = peak-sentiment trap; wait for a base above rising MA that absorbs the ATM supply. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 20-week EMA on rising volume (trend kill on a +400% YTD parabola), OR photonics ETF (EUV) breaks below its launch base, OR a $600M ATM takedown disclosure followed by giving back the prior month's range on volume. --- ### AMSC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMSC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Thesis: Data-center grid-power pick-and-shovel; backlog +40% YoY to ~$280M, Q4 orders ~$100M. But 2026-05-28 beat sold off on soft Q1 margin guide ($0.17 adj vs $0.24 est) gapped ~9%, then -8.8% on Jun 3 to $46.67. Narrative accelerating, price structure broken: wait for a higher low, don''t chase the knife. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $40 (loses post-earnings shelf + April base pivot; opens path to 200-DMA / $24.87 low). Also dead if next print (est. early Aug) shows 12-mo backlog contracting from ~$280M or grid orders rolling over, or grid-power-transmission theme downgrades to SATURATED/DEAD. --- ### CCJ URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CCJ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-07-01 Thesis: Earnings binary resolved bullish (Q1 sales $616M vs $495M est, EPS $0.34 beat, 2026-05-05) but the tape SOLD it topped $135.24, bled ~23% to ~$104. Theme downgraded ACCELERATING→MATURING as spot rolls to $84.70/lb (-2.8% MoM). 2026-06-01 Cigar Lake stake-up to 57.4% signals management conviction, but structure is broken don't chase mid-pullback; wait for a higher-low reclaim of $115. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $100 (under the ~$104 May low) on expanding volume, OR uranium spot under $80/lb, OR Q2 guide cut on the Key Lake/McArthur disruption. Failure to retake $115 (lower high instead) kills the reclaim entry. --- ### CEG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CEG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: Nuclear-baseload-for-AI narrative has gone mainstream and CEG is the crowded, mature leg: Q1 beat (2026-05-11) sold off ~3%, Third Point fully exited, and an 11M-share secondary priced at $281 (2026-06-01) caps the tape with supply overhang. No fresh entry without a pullback that holds or a NEW hyperscaler PPA / FERC co-location win. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $240 (200-DMA + post-Calpine gap fill), OR FERC denies the Amazon/Susquehanna co-location ISA amendment (docket ER24-2172), OR 2026 adj-EPS guide cut below the reaffirmed $11 floor. --- ### COIN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/COIN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: 1.5–2.5x BTC-beta proxy in a confirmed bear leg, not a dip: BTC $63.6K (−50% off ATH, 11-day ETF outflows −$3.45B, MSTR now SELLING, whale distribution at 2022 lows). COIN $173.99 has sliced under the Piper $180 bear anchor and all MAs. Momentum narrative rolled MATURING→SATURATED. Falling knife no long until BTC reclaims ~$68K and COIN closes >$185 weekly. Watchlist only. Invalidation trigger: Long re-arms ONLY on BTC reclaim of ~$68K AND COIN weekly close above $185 (back over Piper $180 anchor + 20-EMA), ideally with 3+ days net-positive ETF flows. BTC losing $60K opens $55K → harder no-touch. Do not enter into the knife; do not buy oversold RSI alone. --- ### CRWV URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRWV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: Q1 binary resolved (beat-and-fade, mean-reverted $130s→~$104); now a choppy basing/recovery on fresh catalysts Vera Rubin first-validation (6/1), BNP $192 initiation (6/2), NVDA stake. Earnings now Aug 11, so binary-risk DEFER reason is gone, but CRWV is still the laggard of its theme. Setup improving, not yet a clean breakout LOW probe. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$104 post-Q1 low = base failed, opens DA Davidson $100 → Bernstein $67 air pocket. Or the new $850M data-center junk bond prices wider than the 9.75% notes (credit refusing the recovery), or a second cohort guide-down. --- ### INTC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/INTC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-04-27 Thesis: AI-PC + agentic-CPU + foundry-turnaround leg now CONTESTED: NVIDIA''s 2026-06-01 ARM AI-PC chip launch hit INTC -5% (direct x86 threat) while Burry shorts the semi complex on a dot-com parallel. Parabolic ~$102 (~170% above 200DMA, 108x P/E); sell-side PT-chasing to $100-110 but ratings stuck Equal-Weight. Late-stage, not a fresh setup. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $102.50 support (2026-06-02 level) confirms NVIDIA-PC-threat distribution top; or Q2 call shows PC CPU share loss to ARM. Bull thesis stays invalid absent a named external 18A foundry customer. --- ### IQE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IQE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-04-29 Thesis: Binary resolved: the £81m MACOM-led strategic raise (28 May 2026, 19.8p) killed the going-concern/dilution overhang and flipped the story from dying handset-epi to InP-for-AI-datacenter optical Photonics +15%, FY2026 guided >20% growth + EBITDA inflection. Legacy-pivot re-rate, but the May relief pop is done and there''s no near-term catalyst: MATURING setup, buy the pullback toward the 19.8p raise level, don''t chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 19.8p strategic-raise price (MACOM + institutional cost basis) on >1.5x avg volume = re-rate failed; OR FY2026 >20% revenue-growth guide cut in any trading update; OR Photonics revenue down half-on-half at H1 2026 interims (~Sept 2026). --- ### MSTR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MSTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-04 Thesis: The flywheel REVERSED. Strategy went from perpetual BTC buyer to net SELLER (Saylor dumped, 6/1) and the STRC financing engine is in a "death spiral" (Schiff 6/2). BTC in "purge mode" below $67K (6/3) heading toward $50K. This is a narrative BREAK, not a dip avoid the knife. A long only re-fires on a BTC base + an 8-K showing renewed net accumulation. Invalidation trigger: Avoid-stance flips ONLY on all three: (1) weekly 8-K showing net BTC ACCUMULATION with zero sell-language, (2) BTC weekly close back above $84K, (3) MSTR weekly close above its 20-EMA. Until then every bounce is a falling-knife trap; no long, no averaging in. --- ### NNE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NNE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-14 Thesis: NRC formally accepted the Kronos construction-permit app (5/20, +10.7%) and the SMCI AI-power MOU plug NNE into the nuclear-powers-AI meta-narrative but the $400M ATM is now LIVE ($569M liquidity) and 6/03 faded 14% off $30.62 to close $26.24 (distribution). Dilution-on-strength is armed; rental/probe only, not a fresh chase. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$24 (loses the post-5/20 NRC base; closed $26.24 on 6/03), OR any 424B/8-K disclosure that the $400M ATM is selling into rallies either confirms catalysts are priced and dilution is absorbing the move. --- ### OKLO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OKLO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: Nuclear-for-AI-power narrative MATURING, not accelerating. Q1 (5/13) print made OKLO a top-10 large-cap loser; DOE plutonium win (5/26) bounced it (Goldman $66, Cantor $122); then 2026-06-03 co-founders sold $13.6M and the stock dropped 12% textbook distribution into strength on a pre-revenue name. No clean setup; fresh entry today is a falling knife. Invalidation trigger: Any further insider Form 4 sale or ATM/S-3/424B filing within 2 weeks of the 2026-06-03 $13.6M disclosure; or weekly close below the 2026-05-18 post-Q1 digestion low; or DOE plutonium negotiations (opened 5/26) lapsing. --- ### QBTS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QBTS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: Government-bet leg ($2B CHIPS / $100M Commerce LOI, 5/21) is now DIGESTED, not fresh. Sell-side caught up with triple $40 PTs (6/2), QTUM ETF hit $5B = mainstream, short interest spiking, Quantinuum IPO (6/3) adds equity supply. Theme MATURING→saturating. a6 squeeze; fresh entry ONLY on pullback to the gap base no chasing the $40-PT mania. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below the ~$20 May-20 pre-announcement base = government-bet gap filled and failed. OR a new ATM/shelf take-down 8-K beyond the $100M Commerce issuance. OR QTUM ETF rolls over + the quantum cohort prints lower lows together (theme→DEAD). --- ### QUBT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QUBT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-06-05 Thesis: Quantum theme MATURING after the 2026-05-21 $2B CHIPS blow-off and QUBT was NOT one of the 9 funded names. Faded to ~$11.34 (off $25.84 52w high), May-12 200-DMA reclaim failing. Quantinuum's $14.3B IPO (~2026-06-05) drains capital to the flagship. Beta-only laggard, no accelerating leg to buy. Invalidation trigger: Flip to interest ONLY on a weekly close back above the ~$13-14 200-DMA on a QUBT-specific catalyst (TFLN customer 8-K or direct federal award, or rule_7 options confirmation). Hard SKIP on any 424B5/S-3 ATM filing, or if the QNT IPO drains the sector bid and QUBT loses the ~$10 shelf. --- ### RGTI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RGTI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: Government-stake leg (2026-05-21 $2B CHIPS quantum push) already fired and cooled inside 4 sessions; theme tipping MATURING→SATURATED (QTUM ETF $5B AUM, short interest spiking, insider selling, IBM $10B + Quantinuum $14.3B IPO commoditizing the pure-play). No fresh RGTI-specific catalyst in 30d chasing the cooled pop is the trap. LOW probe only. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the 2026-05-22 breakout pivot, OR any ATM-issuance 8-K filed during strength (historic basket top-tell), OR QBTS closing below its 20-EMA (basket leader rolls first). --- ### SMR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SMR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Beaten-down SMR re-activated on a NEW binary: South Korea''s $200B US-investment package is eyeing NuScale''s Tennessee/TVA program (Doosan + Samsung C&T in talks). But the tape is pure rip-fade (+9% 6/2 → −13% 6/3 to $12.13), fundamentals are broken (Q1 rev $0.565M, −96% miss), and Citi $7 / Goldman $9 PTs sit at/below spot. Undated catalyst + no clean base = SKIP the chase; watchlist only. Invalidation trigger: SK $200B-package talks close with no named NuScale allocation, or weekly close below $10 with a failed 20-EMA reclaim. RoPower FID slip past 2026-12-31 = DEAD. Engage only on a confirmed SK capital figure or a binding offtake ≥$100/MWh for ≥250 MWe. --- ### TSLA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSLA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Next catalyst: 2026-06-18 Thesis: Optimus/robotics leg is actively breaking, not accelerating TSLA shed $75B in a session on 2026-06-02 after Sam Altman targeted Optimus and NVIDIA armed Chinese humanoid rivals with an open robotics platform. Musk-complex capital is draining into the ~mid-June SpaceX IPO ($1.77T, $135), not TSLA. No fresh TSLA-specific accelerant stay flat until structure reclaims the 6/2 gap. Invalidation trigger: Confirmed SKIP if TSLA fails to reclaim its 2026-06-02 pre-gap high within ~2 weeks, or another Optimus/Robotaxi milestone slips. Re-engage only on a reclaim of that high paired with a dated robotics catalyst (Optimus milestone or Robotaxi weekly-rides inflection). --- ### NVDA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NVDA/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Thesis: Q1 FY27 binary cleared (~5/28); April''s custom-silicon scare never broke the stock and the AI-capex tape is RE-ACCELERATING TSMC flags multi-year capacity shortage + price hikes (6/04), semi mania resuming, AMD/STM cluster ripping. Post-earnings drift window open with no blackout for ~10 weeks. Knock: NVDA is the YTD cluster LAGGARD (+18% vs STM +190%); want a higher-low 50-DMA reclaim while leading before max size. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$186 (prior stop / 50-DMA zone), OR a named top-4 hyperscaler announces a CUT to NVDA order volume in favor of in-house silicon, OR Q2 FY27 Data Center guide <~$40B sequential, OR AMD MI400/MI355X verified >70% of GB300 cost/token at a named hyperscaler. --- ### VRT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VRT/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Thesis: Liquid-cooling sub-narrative re-accelerating inside a now-mature AI-power theme: Goldman blessed it "the next AI trade" (5/24), NVIDIA SmartRun digital-twin deepened the moat (6/1), TD Cowen took street-high PT to $387 (5/20). Pullback re-entry on the cohort flush, not a gap chase. Steve Weiss exit (5/19) is the saturation watch size HIGH, not SUPREME. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-week EMA / ~$306 (prior tranche stop region); OR Q2 print (~2026-07-23) shows datacenter orders/backlog decelerating below +30% YoY; OR a second high-profile fast-money exit confirms the Weiss (5/19) tell on a failed retest of the $345–387 PT band. --- ### COHR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/COHR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: The breakout the last dossier was waiting for has fired. COHR printed a NEW all-time high on 2026-06-02 (Benzinga: "Marvell Gets The Headlines — Coherent Stock Gets The All-Time High"), clearing the $404.94 ATH from 2026-05-14 that it had repeatedly failed at through late May. The trigger is fresh and architectural: Jensen Huang publicly confirmed (2026-06-02) that datacenters are shifting to optical interconnects direct validation of COHR's core TAM from the single most important voice in AI… Invalidation trigger: retry on next decision_window --- ### WULF URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WULF/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Thesis: BTC-miner-to-HPC pivot re-accelerated: 1 GW Kentucky AI campus acquired 5/26 (geo-hedge vs NY) + six analyst PT raises to $28–42 through a Q1 revenue miss = Street absorbing the story. Narrative ACCELERATING again; NY data-center moratorium (6/02) is the new overhang to size around. No named tenant yet keeps it short of fat-pitch. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA (re-establishing ~$22–25 post-Kentucky gap); hard kill on weekly close < $19 offering floor, OR NY one-year data-center moratorium signed into law with no Kentucky tenant/offtake to offset a Lake Mariner freeze. --- ### GLW URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GLW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: AI-optical/glass picks-and-shovels narrative has gone fully public Mizuho PT $220 (5/12), photonics ETF launch (5/13), Cathie Wood "blasts from the past" (5/11) = saturation tell, not an entry. no re-entry without a volume-confirmed higher-low reclaiming the $187 pivot. Invalidation trigger: No volume-confirmed higher-low reclaiming $187 pivot (>1.3x avg vol) keeps this a passive watch. Weekly close below ~$174 support shelf, OR next-print Optical Comms YoY <+10%, = thesis broken, abandon. --- ### GLXY URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GLXY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Thesis: Crypto-financials leg broke we were chasing the BTC>$80k move above Cantor's $30 PT. Now a 265.1M-share offering/registration (5/21), a $100M BitGo claim (5/21), and Novogratz himself warning of a market top (5/26) = structural overhang. STAY-AWAY / re-setup-required, not a fresh long. Invalidation trigger: Stay flat while the 265.1M-share offering is unpriced or prices <$28, BTC trades <$90k, or weekly close holds below the 20-EMA. Long thesis only re-validates on a reclaim and hold >$31 with BTC>$100k and the crypto-financials cluster re-accelerating together. --- ### MP URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Thesis: Rare-earth supply-security story is MATURING, not accelerating: structural floor intact (DoD price floor, Apple offtake, Texas magnet capex) but the momentum edge is spent sell-side is now INITIATING (Goldman + Needham $81, both 2026-06-01), the textbook "everyone caught up" tell. a fresh entry here is a LOW probe. Only second-wind is the emergent government-equity-stakes meta-theme. Invalidation trigger: a daily close below the published invalidation level. --- ### PURR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PURR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Thesis: Hyperliquid proxy: fresh institutional narrative leg (ICE CEO "bigger than Nasdaq" 5/29, Hayes $100k bet 6/2) but.7% chasing the retail leg. Crypto rolled over (BTC <$68k) and a 35M-share secondary overhangs. WATCH not a buy no fresh long until clean reclaim of $8.50 with BTC >$70k and a non-retail confirm. Invalidation trigger: No fresh long unless reclaim of $8.50 on 2x vol with BTC >$70k. BTC sustained <$65k, or the 35.16M-share Rorschach secondary pricing <$7.50, invalidates the leg. --- ### QCOM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QCOM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Thesis: Broad AI-chip theme still ACCELERATING (fresh records 6/02), but QCOM''s own leg is MATURING/late: now spiking up retail most-searched leaderboards (saturation) while NVDA invades its Snapdragon-X PC turf (6/01 RTX Spark). ''Year of the Agent'' + Dragonfly DC pivot is narrative attach, not revenue. Watch for a clean higher-low reclaim of $248.88 don''t chase here. Invalidation trigger: No fresh long unless daily close reclaims $248.88 on >1x volume with a defined higher-low. A rejection at the $248 zone, a close back below $229.50, ai-chip theme flipping to MATURING/SATURATED, or NVDA RTX Spark benchmarks showing Snapdragon-X share loss = stay out / thesis broken. --- ### RKLB URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RKLB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Thesis: Q1 binary resolved bullish (rev $200.3M, $2.2B backlog) but the trade morphed: a $3B ATM filed 5/20 caps every rally and the bid is now hot-money SpaceX-IPO proxy flow (UFO ETF $1B AUM, Bitcoin→space rotation 6/04). Theme MATURING→SATURATING, peak-retail signals stacking. Not a fresh-entry pitch re-chasing buys the same 5/19 trap. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA (~$115–120) while the $3B ATM is active = no clean trend, stand aside; OR a sell-side downgrade within 30d = SATURATED flip. Re-entry only on a higher-low 20-EMA retest with RSI<65 AND visible ATM overhang cleared. --- ### WEST URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WEST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Thesis: Misclassified "AI-momentum" name No accelerating narrative now; only edge is a slow insider cluster + Benchmark $10 PT. Dead tape until Q2 (~Aug). SKIP / avoid re-entry until a clean higher-low reclaim above ~$8.40 on volume. Invalidation trigger: No setup while it sits below a reclaimed $8.40 on sub-1x volume. Thesis fully dead if Q2 print (est. ~2026-08-06) shows revenue below the Q1 $308.8M run-rate or a widening EPS loss. --- ### WTI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WTI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Thesis: Iran-war crude premium that drove our May spike has fully unwound on the truce oil-geo theme DEAD with no replacement catalyst. WTI back to dead-tape sub-$5 Gulf E&P with no momentum leg. SKIP / probe-only until a fresh dated catalyst prints with volume ≥1.5×. Invalidation trigger: No entry unless oil-geo theme re-accelerates AND daily volume ≥1.5× 20d-avg AND WTI reclaims $4.74 with crude bid. Any probe stops on a daily close below the published invalidation level or crude reversing below the entry-day low. --- ### ASST URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ASST/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: crypto-financials-exchange Next catalyst: 2026-05-15 Thesis: Narrative wave is real: TD Cowen ($26, Apr 10) + HC Wainwright ($36, Apr 21) = two sell-side stamps in 11 days on Strive with climbing PTs the analyst follow-on cluster dossier flagged. Rules 1/2/6/10 confirm: momentum rank 29/3824, +60pp vs SPX 20d, STOCKTWITS +361%, theme ACCEL news z=3.56. But tape is not ready: bid $16.67 / ask $19.00 = ~14% spread (instant slippage, stops gap), volume 1.46x missed the 1.5x gate, RSI 79.9 extended. Dossier explicitly says no entry on red tape post Apr 20 require clean base + BTC confirmation + volume expansion. Wait for >1.5x volume, spread under 3%, and a higher low above Apr 20 pre-mkt low before probing at 1% cap. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below Apr 20 pre-market low on expanding volume with no re-base in 5 sessions; OR Strive/ASST merger break announcement; OR BTC weekly close below 20-week MA (treasury-basket unwind). --- ### COHU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/COHU/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: COHU re-rated from cyclical handset/auto-test laggard into AI-compute test play: Q1 orders +57% YoY, FY26 guide raised to +20-25%, sell-side upgrading $33→$54+ in the past month. Eclipse xPU handler + Neon HBM inspection are the accelerating leg. Extended at 52-wk highs (~$57); next binary is the 2026-07-30 Q2 print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 20-week EMA (~$44); OR 2026-07-30 Q2 misses the $144M ±$7M guide, GM guided <43%, or FY26 revenue-growth guide cut below +20%; OR HPC/Eclipse follow-on orders stall (no new xPU handler wins by Q2 call). --- ### CRDO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRDO/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-06-03 Thesis: AI-interconnect royalty narrative re-accelerating: DustPhotonics $750M buy on 2026-04-13 pivots CRDO from copper AEC to optical/CPO just as 3 sell-side inits/upgrades land in 7 days (Jefferies $175, Needham $220, GS $170). Fresh breakout leg into hyperscaler 1.6T cycle. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA OR loss of >10% on a single day with negative news from top-2 hyperscaler customer (AWS/MSFT) OR DustPhotonics deal unwinds / regulatory block announced. --- ### CRWD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRWD/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-07-02 Thesis: Post-print momentum continuation: CRWD beat-and-raised Q1 (2026-06-03; EPS $1.10 vs $1.07, rev $1.386B vs $1.363B), RAISED FY27 guide, and dropped a 4-for-1 split (effective 2026-07-02). Four analyst PT raises clustered the next day ($700–$800). Earnings binary now BEHIND us; AI-as-new-attack-surface narrative ACCELERATING. Buy the continuation, not a pullback this leader won''t give. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the 2026-06-03 post-earnings reaction low (full gap-fill = failed breakout); weekly close below the 20-EMA; or any FY2027 guidance walk-back on the next print. --- ### IESC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IESC/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-09 Thesis: Data-center electrical-infrastructure "shovels" play; Q2 FY26 (rpt 2026-05-01) backlog +62% to record $3.9B, Communications +35% on AI buildout. Narrative accelerating fundamentally, but stock +180% YoY near $737 ATH with no catalyst until ~2026-07-31 earnings buying extension, not a pullback. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA (~$600); OR Q3 print (~2026-07-31) shows backlog below $3.9B or Communications revenue growth under +20% YoY signals data-center order book rolling over. --- ### LQDA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LQDA/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-23 Thesis: YUTREPIA launch ramp accelerating Q1''26 net sales $129.9M (+44% QoQ), profitable, 23% inhaled-prostacyclin share, mgmt line-of-sight to $1B in 2027. Binary overhang: UTHR ''327 patent trial begins 2026-06-23. Legal track record favors LQDA (SCOTUS declined review; full FDA approval intact; ''327 PI already denied). Invalidation trigger: Adverse '327 ruling granting UTHR a permanent injunction (post 2026-06-23 trial); OR Q2'26 YUTREPIA net sales <$130M (sequential decline breaks ramp); OR weekly close below $48 (post-Q1 breakout level fails). --- ### MCHP URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MCHP/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Beaten-down broad-line semi re-rating on a NEW AI-data-center leg: DCS unit +62.9% YoY (Mar-26 qtr), guided $302.7M→~$500M CY2026 (+65%); 06-01/02 guidance popped it +8%. ACCELERATING + cluster-confirmed (NXP/ON ETF launch), but DCS is only ~11% of revenue rest rides MCU cyclical recovery. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $86 (50-day EMA) breaks the post-guidance breakout; OR DCS CY2026 guide cut below ~$500M / growth <50% YoY at the ~Aug-6 print kills the re-rating leg. --- ### MDB URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MDB/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Atlas re-accelerated to +29.4% YoY (record $117M sequential add) at the 2026-05-28 Q1 print, refuting the 2025 'consumption maturing' bear case; beat-and-raise triggered 15+ PT hikes and an +18.5% gap. AI-database narrative ACCELERATING and earnings-de-risked ~90 days but entering $389 is chasing a 25% run. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $340 (fills the 2026-05-28 earnings gap, forfeits the breakout); OR Q2 print (~late Aug) shows Atlas growth <25% YoY vs 29.4% in Q1, or a guidance cut. --- ### MRVL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MRVL/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-05-28 Thesis: Google-Marvell TPU/AI-chip partnership talks (2026-04-20) just added a third hyperscaler ASIC customer on top of AWS Trainium + MSFT MAIA narrative velocity stepped up overnight, and Q1 FY27 print ~2026-05-28 is the binary that either validates the custom-silicon royalty story or breaks it. Invalidation trigger: Google partnership publicly denied/walked back by GOOGL or MRVL IR, OR MRVL closes back below the 2026-04-09 breakout pivot on a weekly basis, OR any of MSFT/GOOGL/META/AMZN guides FY27 capex flat-to-down on late-April prints, OR Q1 FY27 data-center revenue misses with no custom-ASIC raise. --- ### MTSI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MTSI/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: AI optical-interconnect picks-and-shovels narrative accelerating: MACOM raised FY26 data-center growth from 35-40% to >60% on the Q2 call (reported ~late Apr) and guided Q3 rev +~15% QoQ to $331-339M. Strength is the setup but it''s +214% YoY and the next binary (Q3 print) is ~2026-07-30, ~8 weeks out. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$340 (rising 50-day); OR Q3 print 2026-07-30 revenue below $331M guide-low or data-center growth cut back under 60%; OR optical peers CRDO/ALAB/COHR break their 50-day together (theme→SATURATED). --- ### NXT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NXT/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: AI-data-center-power re-rating is turning NXT from solar-tracker picks-&-shovels into a power-infra platform: 2026-05-28 FY2027 guide raise (rev $4.0-4.4B) + $365M Prevalon storage buy + an 8-desk PT-raise cluster ($149-$182) = ACCELERATING. We''d be buying the post-print drift, not a fresh catalyst. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 2026-05-28 guidance-gap shelf / 20-EMA; OR FY2027 revenue guide cut back under the new $4.0B floor; OR 3+ analyst PT cuts in 14d. No spot price was provided confirm price sits above the post-print breakout before sizing. --- ### ON URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ON/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Dead EV-SiC name re-rating as an AI-datacenter-power play: Q1 (5/4) AI data-center revenue +30% QoQ, NVIDIA 800V/MGX role expanded 5/29, Mizuho PT→$150 (5/28). Theme ACCELERATING, cluster-confirmed (Navitas +346% YTD); price below PTs with no earnings in 30d. Entering post-inflection-print, so HIGH not SUPREME. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-week EMA (~$112, est.); or Q2 print (~late-July) shows AI data-center revenue flat/down QoQ after Q1's +30% sequential; or NVIDIA awards the 800V MGX power sockets to Infineon/Navitas instead of onsemi. --- ### ONTO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ONTO/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semicap-equipment Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: HBM/advanced-packaging metrology narrative accelerating: 2026-04-16 dual pre-announce (Q1 raised to $292M, Q2 guide $320-330M vs $303M Street) triggered 6 sell-side upgrades in 14d (highest PT $350). Q1 print ~2026-05-07 is the binary second raise = continuation; in-line = round-trip. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the 2026-04-16 pre-announce-day low, OR weekly close below 20-EMA, OR Q1 print (~2026-05-07) comes in-line with pre-announce with Q2 guide merely reiterated (not raised again), OR any top-3 customer cuts HBM capex guide. --- ### RVMD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RVMD/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-05-15 Thesis: KRAS-franchise leadership accelerating after 2026-04-13 daraxonrasib Phase 3 doubled survival vs chemo in pancreatic cancer; FDA submission pending, $2B raised at $142 funds commercial launch, zoldonrasib G12D data (52% ORR, 93% DCR) adds a second pillar. Analyst PTs just walked $147→$215. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $142 (secondary-offering clearing price = structural floor); OR FDA Refusal-to-File / clinical hold on daraxonrasib; OR weekly close below 20-EMA with biotech tape (XBI) breaking 52-week support. --- ### TTMI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TTMI/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: AI+defense PCB picks-and-shovels accelerating: Q1 (4/29) beat-and-raise, rev +30%, book-to-bill 1.41, backlog $1.6B; sell-side cluster-upgraded 5/28 (PTs $205-215) with price ~$189.60 still below every target. Strength IS the setup no earnings until ~Aug 5, clean momentum runway. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$162 (4-week breakout base), OR Q2 print (~Aug 5) shows book-to-bill <1.0 / revenue below the $930M guide low signaling AI+defense order rollover. --- ### WGMI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WGMI/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Bitcoin-miner-to-AI-datacenter re-rating is in full mania: CIFR (Google-backed $3B Fluidstack), IREN (Microsoft $9.7B + Dell $1.6B Blackwell), WULF ($12.8B contracted) all signing marquee HPC leases. WGMI +255% 1yr, ripping fresh 52-wk highs ($70–74 vs $17 low). Buy the accelerating theme via the basket scaled, not max-size at the high. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $58 (mid-May breakout shelf / ~20-week EMA); or a top-3 holding (CIFR/IREN/WULF) has a marquee HPC contract cancelled or a hyperscaler backer (Google/Microsoft) walks; or BTC breaks down hard and drags the complex. --- ### ACDC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ACDC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Oil-supply-shock beta accelerating: Strait of Hormuz blockade fears spiked WTI >$102, driving ACDC +8.25% on 2026-06-03 and +91% YTD. Highest-torque frac-services proxy on a sustained crude spike but it''s a geopolitical-premium trade, not fundamentals (Q1 net loss $83.5M, ~$1.05B net debt). Ride the spike, hard stop. Invalidation trigger: WTI weekly close below $85 (Hormuz premium unwinds) OR ACDC weekly close below 20-EMA (~$5.75) OR a Hormuz/Iran de-escalation headline; any one kills the oil-shock-beta leg. --- ### ACLS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ACLS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Memory-capex pick-and-shovel re-rating + pending all-stock Veeco merger have driven ACLS +83% in 3mo to $158.78 (golden cross, B.Riley PT $180). But FY26 revenue is FLAT and DCF fair value ~$92 the entire move is forward narrative, gated on an undated China SAMR approval and a late-2026 DRAM/HBM inflection. Strong trend, stretched chase entry. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$135 (fills the 2026-05-07 earnings gap, breaks the post-Q1 breakout base); OR China SAMR blocks/terminates the Veeco merger; OR FY2026 revenue guide cut below "flat" (memory offset failing). --- ### ADI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ADI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Analog cyclical-recovery + AI-data-center-power (Empower $1.5B) narrative; Q2 beat (~2026-05-20) triggered 11+ PT hikes to $440-515. But the binary catalyst is now in the rearview and sell-side has FULLY caught up this is a late, validated leg, not a fresh front-run. Best entry is a 20-EMA pullback re-test, not a chase here. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the post-Q2 breakout pivot (~$410, est.) or below the rising 20-EMA; or August Q3 FY2026 guide cuts industrial/auto demand and breaks the cyclical-recovery thesis. --- ### AEIS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AEIS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Picks-and-shovels AI-datacenter power re-rating: DC Computing revenue doubled to $194.2M in Q1 (5/4) and the 6/3 ADH 800V DC-DC converter launch plugs AEIS into NVIDIA Rubin-era 800V HVDC racks. But tradable leg is MATURING $312 still below the 50-day (~$346), fresh convert-arb overhang, no catalyst until ~early-Aug. Buy the 50-day reclaim, don''t chase the chop. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 200-day MA (~$286) or loss of the $298.85 (2026-06-02) low with no reclaim; OR Q2 (~early-Aug) DC Computing revenue printing a sequential decline vs $194.2M / FY26 ~mid-30% DC-growth guide cut. --- ### AESI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AESI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Frac-sand-to-AI-power legacy pivot re-rating on a 3-analyst upgrade cluster (Raymond James Outperform $25 on 6/2, +6.6%; Loop Capital bull 6/3; RBC $20 on 5/6), fueled by the $840M Caterpillar 1.4GW behind-the-meter genset deal serving data centers. Momentum leg accelerating NOW; power cash flow is 2027-2029, so this is a narrative re-rate, not a fundamentals trade. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$15 (pre-upgrade breakout base / 20-EMA) = failed breakout, exit. Hard thesis break: any Caterpillar GFA slippage/cancellation, OR Q2 (8/4) adj-EBITDA guide cut below $48M consensus, OR no new power PPA signed by the Q2 print. --- ### AGX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AGX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai Next catalyst: 2026-04-29 Thesis: Pure-play EPC for hyperscaler gas-fired data-center power; narrative ACCELERATING but crowded. Near-term binary is hyperscaler FY26 capex commentary in late-April prints (MSFT/GOOGL/META/AMZN). Q1 FY27 print ~2026-06-04 is the next company-specific binary backlog print is the number that matters. Invalidation trigger: Any top-4 hyperscaler cuts FY26 capex guide by >10% on late-April/early-May earnings, OR GEV reports soft gas-turbine bookings on its ~2026-04-23 print (AGX is derivative), OR AGX June backlog declines QoQ below $1.5B. --- ### ALGM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ALGM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Sleepy auto/industrial sensor maker re-rating into an AI-data-center-power content story; DC hit a record 14% of Q4 sales (2026-05-07) and grows >20% in FY27, with Jefferies bumping PT $45→$62. Narrative accelerating, but ~$50 sits above the $46 consensus PT and near the $52.80 52-wk high entry is extended with no catalyst inside 30d. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $44 (post-2026-05-07 earnings breakout shelf / rising 50-day) OR data-center revenue growth printing <20% YoY on the ~late-July Q1 FY2027 report. --- ### AMBA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMBA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Edge-AI/physical-AI silicon re-rating. 2026-05-28 Q1 FY27 print was modest, but same-day $800M+/10yr Hanwha co-development deal flipped the narrative to a physical-AI arms dealer. Stock at ~$73 vs fresh analyst PTs $96-$120, RSI ~51 early re-rating leg, not yet stretched. Catalyst (print) already fired; now a consolidation-base play on an accelerating theme. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $68 (Apr-30 pre-print base; fully retraces the post-Hanwha gap). Near-term: loss of $72.18 support on daily close. Fundamental: Q2 FY27 revenue tracking below the $105M guide floor, or Hanwha deal delayed/walked back. --- ### AMDL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMDL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: AMDL = 2x daily AMD ETF, not a rare-earths name (prior tag was wrong). Rides AMD's accelerating AI-GPU narrative (MI450/Helios H2 ramp, OpenAI+Meta, price above consensus PTs). Vehicle amplifies a clean trend but decays in chop; no binary catalyst until the July 22-23 'Advancing AI' event momentum-continuation hold, not a fresh fat pitch. Invalidation trigger: AMD weekly close below 20-week EMA (est. ~$440) OR two consecutive lower weekly lows in AMD; also AMDL daily close < $58. 2x daily-reset decay compounds losses fast in chop exit on trigger, never average down. --- ### AMZN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMZN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: AWS reacceleration (+28% YoY Q1, 15-qtr high) + Trainium silicon royalty is fundamentally ACCELERATING, but the tape won''t confirm AMZN sold off on a blowout print over ~$200B capex and has chopped near its 50-day MA for six weeks. New wildcard: Anthropic hired IPO banks (2026-06-03), setting up a possible mark-up of Amazon''s stake. No fresh momentum trigger; next AWS binary is the ~2026-07-30 Q2 print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 200-day MA (~$229), OR Q2 print (~2026-07-30) shows AWS net-sales growth decelerating below +25% YoY either one kills the reacceleration leg and turns this into a value-trap mega-cap. --- ### ARM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ARM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Post-IPO AI-chip IP licensor with the custom-silicon royalty re-rate narrative re-ACCELERATING into the 2026-05-07 Q4 FY26 print (~15 calendar days out). Tape shifted bullish 2026-04-20 (ARM bucked broad market weakness on hyperscaler AI-buildout flows) and 2026-04-21 (SOXX/SMH shattered records) first sign ARM is rejoining semi leadership after being absent from the 2026-04-14 Hormuz rally. Still, 84%-wide PT dispersion (Goldman Sell $125 ↔ Mizuho Outperform $230) plus Morgan Stanley's… Invalidation trigger: retry on next decision_window --- ### ATEYY URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ATEYY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: korea-asia-semi-beta Next catalyst: 2026-05-08 Thesis: Premium-running renaissance + Onitsuka Tiger lifestyle revival + weak-yen export tailwind. MATURING archetype-4 legacy-pivot narrative now consensus but beat-and-raise engine still firing. ~2026-05-08 Q1 print is the binary on whether FY2026 guide gets raised a third straight time. Invalidation trigger: May Q1 print: FY2026 guide held flat (NOT raised), OR North America revenue <+20% YoY (cons +28%), OR Onitsuka Tiger segment <+20% YoY. Also: weekly close below 30-week EMA post-print, or DECK/ONON next prints flag negative segment growth in premium-running. --- ### BB URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-05-15 Thesis: QNX-NVIDIA tie-up (Safety 8.0 + IGX Thor, Leapmotor D19 design win, Canada submarine deal) is re-rating BB from legacy-pivot into AI-robotics-OS narrative; May $6 call sweeps confirm. But 2026-04-09 FY27 guide-down ($584-611M vs prior $655-685M) and $4.40-4.50 sell-side PTs cap conviction this is a narrative-vs-numbers tug-of-war. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $5.00 (post-earnings gap base) OR QNX royalty/design-win news flow silent for 10 trading days OR NVDA rolls over and drags AI-robotics theme to SATURATED. --- ### BE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: On-site power-for-AI narrative ACCELERATING: Bloom''s SOFCs are the fastest behind-the-meter fix for the data-center grid bottleneck. 2026-05-20 Nebius $2.6B 10-yr deal + Q1 turn to profit re-rated it to AI-infra royalty (+250% YTD). But price ($287) now sits ABOVE consensus PT ($263) digesting a parabola, probe only. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below rising 20-EMA (~$215–$230 zone); OR Q2 guide cut below $3.4B FY revenue floor; OR a hyperscaler publicly choosing gas turbines over Bloom SOFC; OR industrial-power-AI theme flips SATURATED with VST/GEV/OKLO rolling over together. --- ### BHE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BHE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: EMS arms-dealer to the AI buildout: AC&C +41% YoY (liquid-cooling for AI data centers) + semi-cap recovery drove a FY26 guide raise to 9–10% on the 2026-04-29 print. Narrative real and accelerating, but the stock already 2.4x''d off lows to ~$84, now above the $78 avg PT near 52wk highs easy re-rate leg done; want a pullback, not a chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$72 (post-earnings breakout shelf / rising 20-week EMA) breaks the momentum leg; OR Q2 CY2026 revenue prints below the $700M guide floor (~late July) either ends the AC&C/semi-cap acceleration story. --- ### BLDP URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BLDP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Left-for-dead hydrogen fuel-cell name re-rating on a real turnaround: 3rd straight quarter of positive gross margin (14%), 36% opex cut, multi-year OEM bus contracts (New Flyer/Solaris/Wrightbus). But +80% in a month into a catalyst vacuum (next print 2026-08-12) chasing $5.77 is buying a parabola above every analyst PT. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA (~$5.00) or daily close under the $4.80 May-breakout shelf. Fundamentally: 2nd straight QoQ backlog decline on the 2026-08-12 Q2 print (already -5% QoQ to $112.9M), or an ATM equity raise into strength. --- ### BTDR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BTDR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: crypto-financials-exchange Next catalyst: 2026-05-18 Thesis: Legacy BTC miner pivoting hard to AI/HPC Mar 2026 ops print showed 661 BTC (+480% YoY) plus $43M AI-cloud ARR at 94% util; 180 MW Tydal Norway facility targeting Nvidia Vera Rubin for late-2026. Q1 print ~2026-05-18 is the binary AI-ARR trajectory either ratifies the $2B end-2026 bull case or breaks the narrative back to pure miner comp. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $11.00 (50-DMA is $11.60, prior swing support) OR Q1 2026-05-18 print shows AI-cloud ARR <$60M run-rate / flat sequential OR second analyst PT cut below $10 ratifying Cantor downgrade. --- ### CECO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CECO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-09 Thesis: Data-center-power order book going vertical (Q1 bookings +97%, backlog +72%, b2b 2.2x, raised guidance twice) and the $2.2B Thermon merger just closed 2026-06-01. Accelerating 2nd-order-AI industrial; stock consolidating ~12% below $90 ATH with the 2026-06-09 synergy call as next catalyst. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $68 (post-Q1 breakout base); OR book-to-bill falls under 1.5x on next order/earnings update; OR 2026-06-09 call cuts combined FY revenue guide below the $940M floor / flags integration delays. --- ### CIEN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CIEN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Optical picks-and-shovels on AI DCI / WaveLogic-7 1.6T cycle. Triple PT re-rate in 4 days (JPM/BofA $550 on 2026-04-16, MS $405 on 2026-04-20) real binary is LITE/COHR prints ~2026-05-07/08, then CIEN Q2 ~2026-06-05. Invalidation trigger: LITE or COHR miss + cut datacom guide at 2026-05-07/08 prints; OR any of META/MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN cuts 2026 CapEx guide >5%; OR weekly close below 50-DMA on >1.5x avg volume before armed entry. --- ### CLS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CLS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-04-27 Thesis: AI-hyperscaler networking picks-and-shovels narrative re-accelerating as sell-side chases higher (BofA $430, JPM $410, Cowen $350 all raised in last 4 sessions), but Q1 2026 print inside 7 trading days = binary gate. Defer aggressive sizing until post-print reaction confirms. Invalidation trigger: CCS segment QoQ revenue growth <10% on Q1 print (prints ~2026-04-27), or HPS sub-segment decel below +50% YoY, or weekly close below 20-EMA on post-earnings reaction. Any hyperscaler (META/GOOGL/MSFT) cutting 2026 capex guide also kills it. --- ### CLSK URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CLSK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-06 Thesis: CleanSpark the last pure-play BTC miner capitulating to the AI/HPC "neocloud" pivot; +37% in May on hyperscaler lease talks plus Aschenbrenner/13F accumulation despite an ugly Q2 miss. Market re-rating it on power-capacity optionality, not mining P&L. ACCELERATING, but the signed deal is unconfirmed binary. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the pre-May-breakout base (level it broke out from before the +37% run), OR an official walk-back of the digital-infrastructure pivot / "lease talks ended" headline, OR the next print delivering another revenue miss with zero signed HPC revenue. --- ### CNTA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CNTA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: rare-disease-approvals Next catalyst: 2026-05-08 Thesis: Orexin-2 agonist pure-play; ORX750 is the 3rd horse in a Takeda-validated NT1/NT2/IH franchise. Wells Fargo downgrade to EW with PT raised to $42 (2026-04-20) marks the sell-side-catchup phase leg 1 narrative window closed. Next leg requires Ph2 efficacy/safety print (H2 2026) or M&A leak; until then it's a catalyst-calendar vehicle, not a fresh momentum entry. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA on volume, OR any 8-K disclosing liver enzyme elevation / SAE in ORX750 Ph2, OR secondary offering announcement, OR second sell-side downgrade below $35 PT within 30d of the 2026-04-20 WF cut. --- ### COCO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/COCO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Coconut-water category leader re-rated +130% off lows on a real Q1 FY26 blowout (+37% sales, EPS beat, FY guide raised). But the catalyst already fired; stock now consolidates ~7% below its $79.70 ATH with no event for 8 weeks until Q2 ~7/29. MATURING, not accelerating buy the pullback, don't chase $74 near the high. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $60 (fills the late-April Q1 earnings gap = full retrace of the re-rate). OR Q2 print ~2026-07-29 net sales <$185M (fails to top seasonally-strongest-quarter bar over Q1's $179.8M = growth decelerating). --- ### CORT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CORT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: Post-CRL redemption arc: first-in-class SGRA Lifyorli approved 2026-03-25 in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer after the hypercortisolism CRL crushed the stock -50% on 2025-12-31. ROSELLA OS (35% mortality reduction) + NCCN upgrade 2026-04-10 confirm narrative repair, but broken chart and ~2026-05-05 Q1 print is the next binary. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $32 (post-CRL base broken) OR Q1 2026 revenue <$195M OR FY2026 guide cut below $900M low end OR Cushing's NDA resubmission slipped to 2027. --- ### CSCO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CSCO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-08 Thesis: Legacy networking giant re-rating on AI: Q3 (5/13/26) AI-infra order guide hiked 80% to $9B FY26, Acacia optics +200% YoY, backlog extends into FY27. Stock gapped ~$99→$128 ATH in 3 weeks. Cisco Live 6/8–12 is the next narrative beat. ACCELERATING but mega-cap and extended at highs. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $116 (fills the 2026-05-13 earnings gap / breakout base) = failed breakout. OR FY26 hyperscaler AI-infra order guide walked back below $9B, OR Q4 FY26 revenue guided below the $16.7B floor. --- ### CTOS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CTOS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Grid/T&D capex supercycle (data-center power + grid modernization) is the accelerating leg; CTOS is the laggard specialty-rental picks-and-shovels name re-rating on a Q1 beat-and-raise (rev +9%, util 81.4%, record $1.66B OEC) plus clustered PT hikes to $11–13. No catalyst until ~late-July Q2 a trend-continuation hold, not a fresh binary. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $8.00 (50-day/breakout base); or FY26 Adj EBITDA guided below the raised $415M floor; or rental utilization back under 78% (T&D demand rollover); or a Platinum Equity block-sale/secondary. --- ### CYRX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CYRX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: CGT cold-chain picks-and-shovels re-rating on biotech funding recovery + FDA manufacturing-flexibility tailwind; commercial CGT revenue +26% YoY, FY guide raised at the May 4 print, Craig-Hallum street-high $20 PT (6/3). But +148% off lows, now AT 52-wk high ABOVE the ~$15 consensus PT chasing an analyst pop with no binary catalyst for ~2 months. Probe, not fat pitch. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$13 (breakout pivot / 20-week EMA zone); OR FY2026 revenue guide cut below the $192M floor at Q2 print (~early Aug); OR commercial CGT revenue growth decelerates below +15% YoY (was +26% in Q1). --- ### DAVE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DAVE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Profitable neobank compounding +47% rev / +101% NI with CashAI underwriting driving record-low 1.69% loss rates (Q1 2026, reported 2026-05-05). Sell-side just woke up (UBS/Evercore/B.Riley late-May initiations) = MATURING. Trade is the post-earnings pullback to ~$244 on a reclaim, not a fresh breakout. No earnings until ~Aug = clean window. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$210 (loses post-Q1 base / breakout-retest zone); OR Q2 28-day past-due rate re-expands above ~2.5% vs 1.69% Q1 record-low (CashAI underwriting edge breaking). --- ### DELL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DELL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-05-18 Thesis: Enterprise AI-server picks-and-shovels leg is the only trade here: DELL is the named GB200 NVL72 launch partner and ISG AI backlog was $9.0B on the Q4'25 call. The 2026-04-13 NVDA-takeover rumor + same-day denial reset a floor near $180; GS $215 / JPM $205 PT hikes on 2026-04-16 formalized sell-side catch-up, but the CFO Form 4 sale of 19,500sh @ $182.53 the day of the rumor took the edge off the spike. Rule floor hit today (5/7, ortho 1, archetype 2) but with Q1 FY27 binary inside 30 days and… Invalidation trigger: retry on next decision_window --- ### DIOD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DIOD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semicap-equipment Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Small-cap analog cycle-recovery probe. Two sell-side upgrades inside 7 days (Truist Buy $98 on 4/13, Baird Outperform $100 on 4/7) cluster into the ~2026-05-07 Q1 print. Binary setup on cycle-turn confirmation; ON/MCHP prints 3–7 days prior are the read-through. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the 2026-04-06 pre-upgrade level (the upgrades were faded, flow one-way out) OR ON/MCHP guide Q2 revenue below consensus on their early-May calls (analog recovery narrative dies before DIOD prints). --- ### DNTH URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DNTH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: rare-disease-approvals Next catalyst: 2026-05-04 Thesis: Pre-readout accumulation leg on DNTH-103 complement platform: Wolfe Research Outperform/$98 PT (2026-04-09) is the first sell-side anchor; AAN 2026-05-04/07 competitor tape + H2 2026 MaGic gMG Phase 2 topline are the binary repricers. Buy the base, flatten T-3 pre-topline. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA on >1.5x avg volume post-Wolfe anchor; OR Wolfe-style follow-on coverage fails to arrive within 4 weeks of 2026-04-09; OR Q1 call pulls cash runway inside 12 months; OR competitor AAN readout (ARGX/UCB/IMVT) sets gMG bar >3.0 MG-ADL separation forcing DNTH to a higher delta. --- ### DUOT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DUOT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Railcar-inspection microcap reborn as an AI edge data-center/GPUaaS operator: $176M Hydra Host NVIDIA B300 contract (Mar 2026) + fresh $50.4M APR cash (May 26) fund a 2H-2026 revenue hockey-stick toward the ">$50M FY26" guide. Theme ACCELERATING, stock ~10% off 52w high with RSI ~58 but Q1 missed badly ($2.72M vs $9.6M est); the whole trade is back-half execution. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $11 (post-contract base breakdown, ~20% off $13.76); OR a dilutive S-3 secondary at/below market; OR Q2-2026 print (~mid-Aug) shows Hydra Host deployment slipping with the ">$50M" FY guide cut. --- ### ELVN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ELVN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-04-27 Thesis: Dual-binary precision-oncology event window: ELVN-001 (BCR-ABL, vs Scemblix 67.7% MMR@48w ASC4FIRST 2024-06) + ELVN-002 (HER2-selective TKI) into AACR 2026-04-27 (T-5d) and ASCO 2026-05-31 (T-39d). Narrative ACCELERATING; $280M cash removes dilution tail; this is an event build, not a chart trade. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $16 on >2x avg volume (wipes 2024 post-SPO base); OR ELVN-001 Grade ≥3 AE rate >20% at AACR 2026-04-27; OR Novartis ASC4START / next-gen asciminib data at ASCO 2026-05-31 closes the tox gap; OR Q1 burn guide steps to >$30M/qtr. --- ### FLEX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FLEX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] ai-chip ACCEL, 5 rules, top-0.9% momentum +54.7pp; record Q4 + SpinCo catalyst, but RSI 74 extended (half credit) cluster-confirmed, ranks behind cleaner SNDK. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### FNGU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FNGU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: 3x-levered mega-cap/AI beta (NYSE FANG+: NVDA, AVGO, MU, META, PLTR…) ripping with the broad AI tape +44% in a month, +68% TTM, parked ~6.5% under the $36.78 ATH. Theme ACCELERATING and cluster-confirmed by construction, but it''s a daily-reset decay vehicle: tradable while NYFANG holds its 20-wk EMA, a tactical momentum probe never a hold. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $30 (rising 50-DMA / May breakout shelf), or NYSE FANG+ (NYFANG) weekly close below its 20-week EMA. On a 3x ETN a -5% index day ≈ -15%, so the stop is hard and mechanical --- ### FSLR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FSLR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-07-05 Thesis: Perma-bear GLJ capitulated to a $315 Buy (2026-05-27) and FSLR ripped +42% in a month to ~$310 on the Q1 beat re-rated from value-trap to policy-moated AI-power prime. Solar theme ACCELERATING (45X moat through 2032), but catalysts already fired and price sits AT the top Street PT, so a fresh entry here is chasing the parabolic leg. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA (~$258, also the 200-DMA / breakout shelf); or FY26 net-sales guide cut below the $4.9B floor; or US safeguard/AD-CVD tariffs struck down, reopening cheap Chinese module imports. --- ### FTRE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FTRE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-04 Thesis: Busted Labcorp CRO spin turning the corner Q1 adj EBITDA +55% YoY, margin +270bps to 7.4%, book-to-bill 1.15x (3rd straight Q >1.1x), out of revolver. Real fundamental inflection, but stock has 4x'd off $3.97 to ~$15.64 at RSI ~80, +51% over the 50-day. Narrative intact, entry stretched wait for a pullback, don't chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA (~$12.50); or trailing book-to-bill falls under 1.0x; or FY26 adj-EBITDA guide ($190–220M) cut on the ~August Q2 print. --- ### GFS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GFS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] Cleanest fresh ai-chip expression: Q1 beat + first dividend + 6 PT raises (Cantor $80/Susquehanna $100), RSI reset to 67, complements TSM (mature-node/photonics) rather than duplicating it. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### GH URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Blood-based cancer-screening narrative re-rated GH ~+30% off early-May (~$98) to $128.82 (6/3): Shield''s ACS CRC-guideline inclusion (5/27, +9% day), expanded Guardant360 FDA approval (5/20), a Quest national distribution deal, and raised FY26 guide ($1.30-1.32B, Q1 rev +48%) drove a 6/2 upgrade cluster (Evercore/Wolfe Outperform, PTs to $160). Catch: now AT consensus PT (~$135 avg), MATURING, no hard catalyst until Q2 (~Aug). Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the ~$108-110 pre-ACS breakout shelf (breakout failure); OR FY2026 guide cut below the $1.30B floor set 5/7; OR Q2 (~Aug) Shield revenue ramp missing the 27-30% growth guide. --- ### HIMS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HIMS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: GLP-1 pivot trough is in: Q1''26 was the kitchen-sink quarter (+4% YoY, $33M restructuring) but Q2 guide reaccelerates to +25-28% YoY on the branded Wegovy ramp (125k shipments in 6 weeks). CFO bought $1.17M at $24.23 on 2026-05-27; stock reclaimed the 50-day at ~$28. Real reaccel, but no catalyst until the Aug 10 print and price already sits above every sell-side PT ($23-25). Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $24 (loses 50-day MA $24.31 + CFO insider basis $24.23) = recovery structure broken, cut. Also exits: any Novo Nordisk partnership-termination headline (2025 repeat), or Q2 revenue <$680M low-end guide on the ~2026-08-10 print. --- ### HNGE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HNGE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Digital-MSK profitability-inflection re-rate: Q1 (2026-05-05) flipped to a 25% op margin on +47% revenue, and sell-side chased with six PT hikes (2026-05-07). But the catalyst is spent, price is retesting the $62 ATH with insiders selling and no igniter until ~Aug 4 a MATURING setup to buy on a pullback, not chase at highs. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$50 (post-earnings breakout shelf / rising 20-week EMA), OR Q2 FY2026 guide (~Aug 4 print) below the $194M revenue floor either flips the momentum leg from healthy to broken. --- ### HPE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HPE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Legacy-pivot AI-server trade whose binary already fired: 2026-06-02 Q2 beat + raised guide + $6.3B AI backlog drove a record +25% rip that faded off the high. Theme ACCELERATING (Dell twin), but 12+ PT raises in 48h = narrative gone public. Fresh entry = chase; edge is the gap retest, not the highs. Invalidation trigger: Daily close that fills the 2026-06-02 earnings gap (back below ~$48 est. pre-print level), or the AI-server cluster (DELL/MRVL/CSCO) rolls over together; fundamentally, next print (Q3, ~Sept) shows AI backlog flat/declining vs the $6.3B reported 2026-06-02. --- ### HRI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HRI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Equipment-rental roll-up recovering off $88 low (+56%, now $138, +4.68% on 2026-06-04) on mega-project/data-center demand + H&E synergy ramp. Q1 beat: rev +32%, adj EBITDA +33% at 39.3% margin. 2nd-order AI-power play, but leveraged (3.96x) and the binary back-half-synergy proof (Q2, ~Jul 28) sits outside the 30-day window. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$118 (recovery-leg / ~20-week EMA support); OR net leverage rises above ~4.25x on the Q2 print; OR FY26 adj-EBITDA guide cut below the $2.0B floor; OR the $100–120M revenue-synergy target is walked back. --- ### HUM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HUM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Medicare Advantage margin-recovery trade: April''s final 2027 CMS rate (+2.48%, +$13B) lifted the regulatory overhang and HUM has the most MA torque. Doubled off $163 to a fresh $350 ATH today (+6.9%) as sell-side scrambles to upgrade but it now trades above nearly every PT with no hard catalyst for 30+ days. Strong tape, late narrative. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $305 (early-May breakout shelf / momentum support) on rising volume, OR weekly close back under the 50-DMA (~$300), OR FY2026 adjusted EPS guide cut below $9.00, OR star-ratings appeal lost with quantified 2027 quality-bonus impairment. --- ### HYDR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HYDR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-09 Thesis: Hydrogen/fuel-cell basket re-rated as the AI-data-center behind-the-meter power trade (Bloom $2.6B Nebius + $5B Brookfield + 2.8GW Oracle). Theme ACCELERATING & cluster-confirmed, but HYDR dilutes the one winner (BE ~12%) with serial-diluter laggards own BE directly, not the basket. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$55 (rising 20-week EMA, est.); OR Bloom Energy (top holding) loses/cancels a marquee data-center contract (Oracle 2.8GW MSA, Brookfield $5B); OR BE/FCEL/PLUG cluster rolls over together on the weekly (theme flips SATURATED). --- ### IART URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IART/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Med-device turnaround re-rating: 2026-05-05 Q1 beat (adj EPS $0.54 vs $0.40, +35%) plus a raised FY guide ($2.40–2.50) broke IART to a fresh 52-wk high ($17.02), and sell-side PTs (Citi $11 / WF $15 / $17.43 consensus) all sit below price upgrade-chase is the fuel. But +1.3% organic growth means this is margin/sentiment re-rating, not demand acceleration. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $14 (post-Q1 breakout shelf / rising 20-EMA ~$13); OR FY organic-growth guide cut below ~1% or FY revenue guide lowered; OR a renewed manufacturing/quality/recall 8-K (the failure mode that crushed it to $8.70). --- ### INBX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/INBX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-22 Thesis: Post-spike binary biotech. Ozekibart chondrosarcoma BLA filed Apr 2026 (mPFS 5.5 vs 2.7mo placebo); CRC 20% ORR vs 1-6% SOC; HNSCC combo 44% vs 21% ORR. Stock ran $60→$155 (Apr 22) then faded to $94 (Jun 4). Narrative intact but price digesting; next leg is BLA acceptance ~late June + Q3 Phase 3 start. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$78 (breaks post-April consolidation floor); OR FDA refuse-to-file / CRL on the chondrosarcoma BLA; OR a dilutive equity raise priced >15% below market. --- ### INOD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/INOD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: AI training-data pure-play; Q1 (2026-05-07) blew out rev $90.1M +54% YoY, beat by 18%, FY guide raised to ~40%+, other Big Tech customers +453%. Theme ACCELERATING but stock is at a fresh $119 ATH, +92% off the print and now meeting Wedbush's raised $120 PT on a +10% sell-side-catch-up day; next binary (Q2) ~8 weeks out. Real narrative, stretched entry. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $100 the May-8 post-earnings gap base and consolidation floor; below it the parabola has rolled and the momentum leg is broken. Also: Q2 (~2026-07-30) guidance cut or disclosure that the ~56% anchor customer is reducing spend. --- ### IPX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IPX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-04 Thesis: Dual rare-earth + domestic-titanium sovereignty narrative ACCELERATING into a catalyst cluster: Titan DFS landed 2026-06-04 (US$813M NPV8, 39% IRR, Dy/Tb heavy-REE concentrate) on top of 2026-06-01 U.S. Army fastener validation (+7.76%) and $99M DoD IDIQ. Pre-revenue burn + live securities probe keep it MEDIUM, not max. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $36 within ~5 sessions of the 2026-06-04 DFS. Hard stop on weekly close below $33 (March-recovery base off the $29.44 low). Also exit on any equity raise priced >10% below spot, or SEC/class-action escalation of the Frank R. Cruz securities probe. --- ### JBIO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/JBIO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: Binary Phase 1 biomarker interim (H1 2026, most likely within 30d) into a tape that's +43% in 2 weeks to a 52-week high. Mechanism de-risked by VERA ORIGIN P3 (NEJM 2025, PDUFA 2026-07-07). Accelerating but crowded probe sizing only, tight stop, archetype-5 discipline. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $19 pre-data on ≥2x ADV (leak signal), OR Phase 1 IgA reduction <40%, OR any Grade ≥2 safety signal (LFT/cytopenia/SAE), OR weekly close below 20-EMA. --- ### JOBY URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/JOBY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: eVTOL commercialization re-accelerating into Joby's Dubai passenger launch + FAA TIA testing this year; smart money (Josh Brown doubled May-27, ARK, Uber 7.1M sh) accumulating while price sits mid-range ~$11.3, ~45% off the $20.39 Aug-25 ATH. Narrative ACCELERATING, price MATURING no hard catalyst in 30d, so it's a breakout/pullback trade, not a current fat pitch. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 50-day EMA (~$9.90) breaks the recovery base; OR Dubai commercial passenger launch slips to 2027 / FAA TIA flight testing pushed past Q4-2026; OR Q2 print (~Aug 5) cuts FY26 revenue guide below $105M floor or H1 cash use exceeds $370M guide. --- ### KEEL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KEEL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Bitfarms reborn: BTC-miner→AI-datacenter pivot, rebranded KEEL 2026-04-06, 2.2GW pipeline + new gov concession driving an ~8x move off $0.70 lows. ACCELERATING and cohort-confirmed (IREN/WULF/APLD), but the re-rate is lease-execution-dependent no HPC/AI lease signed yet. That signing is the binary; price already sits above every analyst PT. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $5.00 (post-breakout shelf / rising 20-EMA), OR a quarter passes with zero signed HPC/AI leases across Panther Creek/Sharon/Moses Lake the lumpy-power-to-utility-lease re-rate is unconfirmed and the ~19x P/S compresses. Dilutive equity raise at/below market also kills it. --- ### KEYS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KEYS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-05-21 Thesis: Picks-and-shovels AI-infra validation play. Spirent integration + 1.6T optical / custom-silicon test cycle just had Goldman PT raised to $384 (2026-04-14) Q2 FY26 print ~2026-05-21 is the binary: commercial-comm >double-digit + explicit 1.6T callout confirms; in-line print compresses the whole upgrade cycle into one week. Invalidation trigger: Q2 FY26 revenue <$1.30B OR commercial-comm YoY growth <8% OR weekly close below 20-EMA on >1.5x avg volume OR MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN cuts 2026 capex guide. Any one fires = full exit, no average-down. --- ### KGS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KGS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, behind-the-meter-power, ai-data-center-power, nat-gas-infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: Legacy gas-compression operator repriced as behind-the-meter AI power play post-DPS acquisition (closed 2026-04-01, 395 MW, 100 MW to a hyperscaler). Sell-side upgrade cluster (GS $69, BofA $70, JPM, Barclays, RBC) in the last 6 weeks; stock at fresh 52-wk high $63.99. Narrative accelerating but late-stage discovery 2026-05-13 Q1 print is the binary. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $55 (prior ATH breakout retest), OR Q1 2026-05-13 print without incremental data-center MW beyond the existing DPS 100 MW anchor contract, OR 2+ analyst PT cuts in a 2-week window. --- ### LAC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LAC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: But it''s pre-revenue to late-2027 and ATM dilution caps every rally LAC is the highest-beta, weakest-vehicle expression of a now-MATURING lithium trade. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $4.50 (the May consolidation base) OR battery-grade lithium carbonate spot back under $18,000/t either breaks the lithium-recovery + US-sovereignty leg. A discounted ATM/equity raise priced under $5 confirms the dilution-cap thesis and is a hard exit. --- ### LAR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LAR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Lithium-price recovery (carbonate ~doubled to ~$25k/t, 2-yr highs) driving high-leverage, low-cost producer LAR; Q1 EBITDA tripled to $106M and realized price (~$16.8k) still lags spot Q2 mechanical catch-up is the leg. Offset: theme now MATURING, spot rolled over -4.8% on 2026-06-03, +480% YoY, no 30d catalyst. Invalidation trigger: Lithium carbonate spot back below $18,000/t (kills the Q2 realized-price catch-up) OR LAR weekly close below ~$8.00 (breakout-retest floor) OR Cauchari-Olaroz 2026 output tracking under the 35,000t guide. --- ### LEGN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LEGN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-11 Thesis: Post-ASCO momentum leg: LB2501 in-vivo CAR-T posted 100% ORR / 83% CR in Phase 1 (6/2) and LB2102 solid-tumor first-in-human data (6/1) re-rated the pipeline beyond CARVYKTI. HC Wainwright PT $50→$65 + UBS Buy $49 clustered within 48h (6/3) confirm the narrative is being upgraded in real time. We''d be buying continuation, not the event. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back inside/below the 2026-06-01 ASCO breakout gap origin; OR any HCW/UBS downgrade or PT cut from Buy; OR CARVYKTI Q2 net trade sales (J&J report, ~early Aug) flat/down sequentially vs Q1. --- ### LGN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LGN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Post-secondary clearing trade on Blackstone-backed HVAC/mechanical roll-up re-badged as AI data-center power/cooling pick-and-shovel. 2026-04-08 block at $54 cleared the overhang; GS $72 / Tigress $85 PT bumps on 2026-04-16 re-rated the narrative. ~2026-05-07 Q1 print is the binary first test of AI-capex translating to booked revenue. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $52 (under 2026-04-08 secondary strike of $54) OR Q1 2026 revenue miss / FY guide cut on the May call OR any new 424B/block filing before 2026-07-07 signaling accelerated Blackstone exit. --- ### LPG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LPG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: VLGC freight rates at all-time highs on record US LPG exports + Panama congestion + Hormuz rerouting; Dorian printed record Q4 ($1.90 EPS, ~10x YoY, 2026-05-20) and a $1 special div. Freight narrative ACCELERATING but the equity is a cyclical near 52-wk highs (+87% off low) chase strength, respect the ~30% fleet orderbook overhang. Invalidation trigger: BLPG3 spot falls below ~$150/ton (from ~$245) for 2+ weeks, OR weekly close below 20-EMA (~$34). Either signals the freight-rate spike is mean-reverting and the cyclical top is in exit, do not average down. --- ### MGTX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MGTX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Gene-therapy "shots-on-goal" re-rating ACCELERATING: J&J handed back Phase-3-positive bota-vec (Apr 16 ''26, $25M), xerostomia won FDA Breakthrough (Mar 26), and Hologen''s up-to-$430M funds the Parkinson''s Phase 3 non-dilutively. Stock +113% YoY to ~$883M, $9.53 near 52-wk highs. No hard 30-day binary momentum-base trade, not a catalyst sprint. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $8.00 (forfeits the post-J&J-deal base and the $9.00 April-2026 raise level), or a CRL / clinical hold on any program, or xerostomia BLA slipping out of 2026 / AAV-GAD Phase 3 failing to initiate by Q3 2026. --- ### MPWR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MPWR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: AI data-center power narrative ACCELERATING Enterprise Data nearly doubled YoY to $262.8M in Q1 (rpt 4/30), Q2 guide $890-910M implies more ramp. But $1,625 (6/2) sits above EVERY sell-side PT, 54% over GF Value, with a 2X leveraged ETF launched 4/24 = retail saturation. Catalyst vacuum until the Aug-3 print. Great story, stretched post-catalyst entry buy the pullback, not the extension. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-week EMA (~$1,250 est.); OR Q2 print (2026-08-03) revenue below the $890M guide floor or Enterprise Data posts its first sequential decline signals the AI-power content ramp rolling over. --- ### MRX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MRX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits Next catalyst: 2026-05-14 Thesis: Commodity-broker roll-up compounder: $500M notes (2026-04-17) reloads M&A war chest, KBW reinstated Outperform $60 PT (2026-04-08) sets sell-side re-rating frame. Binary is Q1 2026 print (~mid-May). Special-sits/compounder, not narrative-momentum rip size MEDIUM, buy the beat pullback not the earnings breakout. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA, OR Q1 2026 revenue growth <+10% YoY (breaks compounder frame), OR secondary offering announcement from Helikon/CVC/BXC legacy holders (exit immediately on -8%+ gap), OR commodity-vol regime shift (OVX sustained sub-30). --- ### MSOS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MSOS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-29 Thesis: Federal cannabis rescheduling half-delivered medical moved to Schedule III on 2026-04-23, adult-use left in Schedule I. The 2026-06-29→07-15 DEA hearing is the binary on whether recreational revenue gets full 280E relief. MSOS basing at $4.80 off the $4.43 low: asymmetric coil into a dated regulatory event, not a trend trade. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $4.40 (2026-05-22 swing low); OR the DEA hearing (begins 2026-06-29, concludes ≤2026-07-15) proposes Schedule III excluding adult-use, leaving 280E on recreational revenue. --- ### MYRG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MYRG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: AI/datacenter power-buildout lifting grid electrical contractors; MYRG printed record Q1 (rev $1.0B +20%, EPS $2.99 beat ~45%, backlog $2.84B) on 2026-04-29 and is rolling up capacity (Valley ~$328M, 05-27). Theme ACCELERATING + cluster-confirmed, but stock +62%/month, RSI 76, above consensus PT fresh entry buys extension with no catalyst inside 30d. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $400 (20-day EMA / breakout shelf) stops a probe; trend broken on weekly close below 50-day SMA (~$355). Thesis cracks if Q2 (2026-07-29) backlog falls below $2.84B or gross margin reverts under ~12%. --- ### NET URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NET/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Cyber + agentic-AI pick-and-shovel narrative accelerating: Anthropic partnership (5-19), record cyber-ETF melt-up (HACK/BUG ATHs), and Voidzero/Vite acquisition (6-04) deepening the dev-platform moat. But the May move is a post-earnings snapback ($200→$216), not a breakout, with no dated catalyst until ~Aug Q2. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $200 (reclaimed 50-day SMA / 2026-05-14 base $199.81); OR HACK/BUG cyber ETFs rolling over from record-MTD blowoff while NET prints a lower low. --- ### NKTR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NKTR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, il-2-treg-conjugate, alopecia-areata, immuno-dermatology, post-binary-absorption Next catalyst: 2026-05-08 Thesis: REZOLVE-AA Phase 2b primary hit 2026-04-20 (29%/31% SALT response) de-risks REZPEG Treg-IL-2 mechanism; analyst cluster now chasing (BTIG $178, HCW $185, Citi $151, Wedbush $95 Neutral). Same-day $250M secondary caps the squeeze leg edge lives in post-offering absorption base, not the gap. REZOLVE-AD 1H26 is the next binary. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back-fills the full 2026-04-20 gap-up, OR secondary prices >15% below pre-halt close, OR second Neutral/Hold downgrade after Wedbush $95, OR REZOLVE-AD primary endpoint miss, OR Q1 cash guidance <$200M post-offering. --- ### NVDG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NVDG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: NVDG = 2x daily-reset NVDA ETF. NVDA fundamentals ripping (Q1 FY27 DC rev $75.2B, +92% YoY, reported ~May 20 '26) but stock sold the news (-0.9% on a beat) and is range-bound below $235 resistance. A 2x daily-reset wrapper bleeds via decay in chop this is a breakout-confirmation trade, not a chase. Probe only until NVDA clears $235. Invalidation trigger: NVDA weekly close below 200-DMA (~$188) or loss of $165 swing support; or Q2 FY27 guide < $86B Street confirming AI-capex deceleration. In a 2x daily-reset ETF a trend break compounds into decay cut immediately, never average down. --- ### NVDU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NVDU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: 2x-daily NVDA vehicle on the dominant AI-chip narrative. NVDA Q1 (5/20) +85% YoY, Q2 guide $91B raised >$4B above consensus, $500B Blackwell/Rubin visibility narrative still accelerating. But post-print fade ($224→~$218) is decay poison for a daily-reset 2x ETF; NVDU ($151) is consolidating ~13% under its high. Needs NVDA to reclaim $232 for a clean trend leg. Clean 12-week no-earnings runway. Invalidation trigger: NVDU daily close below $135 (breaks post-earnings consolidation floor) OR NVDA weekly close below $195; OR any hyperscaler cuts AI-capex guidance. 2x daily decay bleeds a broken trend fast exit immediately, never average down a leveraged ETF. --- ### NXPI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NXPI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Analog-cycle turn wearing an "AI beyond Nvidia" costume: data-center rev guided to double to >$500M (4/28), Cantor PT $380 (5/13), 2x single-stock ETFs just launched (6/1-6/2). But +50% YTD into ATH $339.95 (5/27), leveraged-ETF froth, no catalyst until 7/28 MATURING tape, want a 20-EMA pullback not a chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 20-EMA (~$308) = analog-cycle leg broken, exit. Also dead if the 7/28 Q2 print cuts the >$500M 2026 data-center guide or auto/industrial bookings roll, or if peers ON/MCHP break down confirming theme-wide distribution. --- ### OGN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OGN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: [Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] Active two-bidder takeover auction (Sun Pharma ~$12B, Grünenthal also bidding); rule_1 top-0.1% momentum + within-10% of 52w-high + theme ACCELERATING binary catalyst trade with archetype-5 size discipline. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### OUST URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OUST/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-26 Thesis: Lidar-for-Physical-AI narrative accelerating: defense counter-drone (Argus, May 26) + robotics perception (FieldAI, Jun 2) + analyst hikes (Rosenblatt $53, May 27) drove daily 52-wk highs. But +281% in 12mo, RSI 71, price 45-80% above MAs and above nearly every PT chase risk is the trade, not the thesis. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $40 (the May breakout shelf / momentum leg) froth unwind likely retests the $30s 20-day SMA. Secondary: Q2 revenue guides/prints below $49.5M (own guide low) at the ~Aug print. --- ### PGNY URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PGNY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Left-for-dead fertility-benefits name re-rating on a turnaround (6 straight beats, FY26 guide raised ~50% above consensus EPS, ~100% retention) PLUS a fresh policy leg the 2026-05-10 DOL standalone-fertility rule + Trump IVF push. Narrative accelerating but tape is stretched (RSI ~90, +35% in a month, price near Street high PTs, no catalyst until 7/30). Add on a pullback to the 50-DMA (~$24), don't chase the blow-off. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA/50-DMA (~$24); OR the DOL standalone-fertility rule withdrawn/gutted in final form; OR a top-client loss disclosed before the 2026-07-30 Q2 print (2024 Amazon-loss redux). --- ### PI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: RAIN RFID recovery accelerating: Q1 (2026-04-29) endpoint-IC bookings hit an all-time record on a custom-ASIC ramp + retailer rebuys, and Q2 guide steps revenue ~40% sequentially to $103-106M (EPS $0.14→~$0.80). Post-inventory-correction re-acceleration, but price is consolidating ~$147, mid-range vs the $247 high / $208.50 median PT needs a breakout to confirm. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $128 (fills the 2026-04-29 earnings gap), OR Q2 revenue prints below the $103M guide floor / Systems revenue declines YoY again at the ~2026-07-29 report signals record bookings aren't converting to shipments. --- ### POWI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/POWI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Legacy power-IC name re-rated ~3x ($31→$85) on AI-data-center power optionality; 2026-06-01 NVIDIA Kyber 800VDC GaN reference designs are the latest leg. Theme ACCELERATING but POWI itself is extended at 52-wk highs, above every analyst PT ($69.50), with next hard catalyst (Q2 print) ~2 months out chase risk high here. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$74 (post-May breakout shelf / rising 50-DMA); OR GaN-power peers (NVTS, MPWR, VICR) rolling over together (cluster break); OR Q2 print ~2026-08-06 shows no AI data-center design-win/bookings traction to justify ~58x fwd P/E. --- ### POWL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/POWL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Narrative leg = AI-data-center + LNG-export power buildout converting into backlog-to-revenue on a small-cap with operating leverage. The trade is not "POWL is a good company" it's whether the ~2026-05-07 Q2 FY2026 print confirms backlog is still compounding ($1.3B+ baseline) or prints the deceleration the multiple already fears. Binary earnings setup. Theme status: MATURING (no longer the fresh pick, peer-group still accelerating). Pre-print we stay DORMANT and let the number decide. FY2024… Invalidation trigger: retry on next decision_window --- ### PRCH URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PRCH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Reciprocal-exchange pivot proving out: Q1 (2026-04-28) PSI revenue +29% YoY, FY26 guide raised to $495–507M, swung to positive FCF/EBITDA. Analyst cluster (Benchmark $22, Stephens resume) drove an $8→$10.8 breakout but the move is ~5 weeks old with no hard catalyst until the Q2 print (~late July). Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $9.70 (post-earnings higher-low / 20-EMA zone); OR FY26 revenue guide cut below the $495M floor; OR a hurricane cat-loss that materially dents the reciprocal's $164.6M statutory surplus. --- ### PRM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PRM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Wildfire-season + defense pivot accelerating: Q1 revenue +74% to $125M, fresh $500M DLA AFFF contract and renewed CAL FIRE deal. Now consolidating ~13% off the $34.89 high, below the 50-day, into peak fire season (Jun–Sep). MATURING re-rate buy the pullback to MA support, don''t chase the high. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$26.50 (loses post-earnings floor, nears 200-day ~$26); or a benign 2026 fire season acres-burned tracking well below 5-yr avg into July; or a Q2 volume miss. --- ### QCML URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QCML/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-24 Thesis: QCML is a 2x-DAILY leveraged ETF on Qualcomm, NOT a quantum stock (theme was mislabeled). QCOM's datacenter-AI pivot is accelerating Dragonfly inference-chip launch (Jun-1) + hyperscaler custom-silicon deal, +100% off April lows into the 2026-06-24 Investor Day binary. Narrative real but extended; leverage decay + 1.5% fee = tactical hold only. Invalidation trigger: QCML daily close below $30 (≈ QCOM losing its ~$222 post-Dragonfly support shelf / COMPUTEX gap-fill); OR the 2026-06-24 Investor Day delivers no named hyperscaler datacenter-revenue commitment and QCOM gaps red. --- ### RIVN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RIVN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-07-02 Thesis: DORMANT watchlist name, NOT a momentum setup. The only bull leg is the R2 mass-market launch building (Illinois production milestone 2026-05-20, customization opened 2026-05-19/22), but that is a binary execution/hope trade, not an accelerating narrative. EV demand is weak; the theme is MATURING→SATURATED. In this playbook strength is the setup RIVN is showing the opposite. Probe-only, no full entry until structure flips. R2 launch catalyst: $45k Tesla Model Y rival, Illinois production… Invalidation trigger: retry on next decision_window --- ### RMBS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RMBS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: AI-memory-interface royalty (DDR5 RCD + HBM4E IP) re-rating hard: Q1 product rev +15% YoY, Q2 guide +11% seq, ATH $174.10 on 2026-06-03. ACCELERATING + cluster-confirmed, but price now sits ~25–50% above every sell-side target momentum-continuation, not a clean entry. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-week EMA (~$130); OR Q2 product revenue guide <$95M (below current Q2 floor); OR Micron/memory-interface peers break down (AI-memory cycle rolls over). --- ### SIMO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SIMO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] analog-components cluster peer, 5 rules, RSI cooled 89→71, top-0.2% momentum +91.6pp; NAND-controller Q1 beat + JPM/Susq/Wedbush PT raises cluster-confirms QCOM, size-down probe behind it. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### SMTC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SMTC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-04-29 Thesis: AI-connectivity pick-and-shovel: CopperEdge ACC attaches to every GB200/GB300 rack. Two PT hikes in 72h (B. Riley $122, Benchmark $120) + spotlight-list mention signal pre-print re-rate; 2026-06-04 FQ1 FY27 print is the binary, with hyperscaler capex commentary 2026-04-23 to 2026-05-01 as the accelerant. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA on volume, OR SMTC pre-announces FQ1 rev <$240M, OR CRDO/Astera Labs named as winning ACC share at SMTC's lead hyperscaler at next platform refresh, OR hyperscaler capex guides cut in late-April prints. --- ### SNDK URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SNDK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-05-04 Thesis: AI-memory super-cycle narrative remains ACCELERATING on fundamentals (NAND ASPs, cap-ex discipline, hyperscaler demand) but the local setup has flipped from "riding the catalyst" to "digesting the catalyst." Nasdaq-100 inclusion went effective pre-open 2026-04-20; The street piled on 5 PT hikes/initiations in the 8 sessions through 2026-04-17, with PT dispersion of 22% (Citi $980 → Evercore $1200) meaning consensus on direction but not on magnitude. This is a HOLD-winners / DO-NOT-CHASE-FRESH… Invalidation trigger: retry on next decision_window --- ### SNX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SNX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: IT-distribution re-rating, not a chip name: JPM Overweight $298 (5/27) on SOTP value-unlock + AI-readiness/device-refresh demand into 2027; Q1 gross billings +24% YoY. Broke to ATH ~$264 in a cluster upgrade (CDW/Ingram/Insight). 2026-06-30 Q2 print is the binary into a soft seasonal guide. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below the 2026-05-27 JPM-upgrade gap (~$246) fills the breakout and breaks the momentum thesis; OR Q2 revenue <$16.1B (below own guide low) on the 2026-06-30 print. --- ### SPXC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SPXC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: The breakout the last dossier was waiting for has FIRED. Two weeks ago (2026-05-21) SPXC sat at ~$205, below its 200-day and stuck mid-range a "wait for it" name. As of 2026-06-04 it's $234.39, having ripped ~14% in two weeks, reclaimed the 200-day (~$210), and pushed to within ~5% of the $246.68 52-week high. The fuel is the 2026-04-30 Q1 beat+raise where management hiked 2026 data-center cooling growth from +50% to +70% and reported HVAC backlog +67% YoY. This is the textbook… Invalidation trigger: retry on next decision_window --- ### SPYU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SPYU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: 4X daily-leveraged S&P 500 ETN (BMO) riding the Mag7/AI melt-up; ~$35.68, 3% under 52-wk high after +95% off the low. Pure leveraged-beta momentum-continuation works only while realized vol stays low; daily-reset decay makes it a regime trade, never a conviction hold. Invalidation trigger: SPYU daily close below 20-EMA (~$32 est.) or VIX sustained >22 (vol-drag regime flips 4X decay against you); equivalently SPY weekly close below its 20-week EMA = trend broken, exit the leverage. --- ### STRL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/STRL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Narrative remains pristine: Q1 adj EPS $3.59 vs $2.01, revenue +92% to $825.7M, FY26 GAAP guide hiked to $16.50-17.15 (from $11.65-12.25) and Keybanc PT $889, inside an ACCELERATING AI-datacenter-power/electrical-infra theme (rule_10 z=4.56). Momentum rules 1/2 fired top-0.3% and +58pp vs SPX, RSI cooled from post-gap 79 to a healthy 70.3 (rule_5), and price pulled back from the $849 blow-off to $766 structurally a better entry than prior sessions. But this is the FIFTH look and the recurring blocker is unchanged: live two-sided market is $649.4 bid / $810 ask (~22% spread) with vol ratio 0.90x below the participation floor an IOC at ask×1.002 would fill at a phantom print and mark instantly to a far-lower bid. Thesis intact, tape unexecutable. Invalidation trigger: Bid-ask spread fails to compress below 3% within 21 days, OR a daily close below $660 (post-earnings gap base / 20-EMA), OR FY26 guidance walk-back, OR theme flips off ACCELERATING any of these and we drop the name entirely. --- ### STRO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/STRO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Sutro burned its old story (deprioritized lead luvelta) and re-minted the equity around STRO-004, a "best-in-class" Tissue Factor ADC. Barclays init OW $56 (2026-05-28) + analyst cluster into a mid-2026 Phase 1 readout. Post 1:10 reverse split the stock 5x'd off lows to ~$29 the whole trade is the binary STRO-004 data. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$22 (20-week EMA) on volume, OR STRO-004 mid-2026 Phase 1 initial data shows DLTs / no objective responses. Secondary tell: a fresh dilutive raise pre-catalyst or the luvelta out-licensing process collapsing. --- ### TECL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TECL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: Triple-levered bet on the strongest tech tape in 6 years Nasdaq +~8%/mo, XLK at 52-wk highs +50% off the Mar-30 low, AI-capex leg ACCELERATING. But TECL is +70% in a month into a blowoff leg; Invalidation trigger: TECL daily close below ~$210 (May breakout shelf) OR XLK weekly close below its 20-week EMA either ends the levered-tech continuation trade. --- ### TMC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TMC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: US deep-sea critical-minerals narrative re-accelerating off the $3.93 low: NOAA found TMC''s seabed-mining application in FULL compliance 2026-05-01, and the new Metals Royalty arm ($132.5M Mesabi iron-ore royalty, first cash H2 2026) bolts a near-term revenue line onto a pre-revenue policy story. ~$6 vs $11.35 high, +31% in 30d. Probe, not fat pitch. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $5.00 (breaks higher-low re-accel structure off the $3.93 low); or a large dilutive raise (>$100M / >15M shares) to fund the Mesabi 2nd-royalty option; or NOAA stalling/rejecting the application at the EIS/Federal Register stage. --- ### TSHA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSHA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-05-14 Thesis: Rett syndrome gene therapy narrative accelerating on TSHA-102 durability data + Canaccord PT raise to $17 (2026-04-06). Binary-catalyst setup into next REVEAL pediatric cohort update and Q1 cash/runway print (~mid-May 2026). Archetype 5 size controlled, bet the catalyst, cut on SAE or dilution signal. Invalidation trigger: Serious adverse event in TSHA-102 pediatric cohort; OR cash runway statement <12 months without financing; OR weekly close through post-data swing low on above-avg volume; OR competitor (Neurogene NGN-401 revival) prints clean Rett data. --- ### TSLG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSLG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-07-02 Thesis: 2x-leveraged TSLA proxy; robotaxi narrative ACCELERATING 2026-06-04 5th/largest Austin expansion covers full metro + airport. Ride TSLA''s autonomy leg with leverage but small: daily-reset decay, ~07-02 Q2 deliveries and 07-22 print are binary. We''re renting the vehicle, not marrying the thesis. Invalidation trigger: TSLA daily close below $400 negates the live golden cross (50-DMA ~$428 > 200-DMA ~$418) and accelerates 2x decay. Secondary: Austin robotaxi service halt or NHTSA/safety-incident headline. --- ### TWLO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TWLO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Legacy CPaaS pivot re-rating as agentic/voice-AI engagement infra. Q1'26 rev +20% YoY (best in 3yrs), first-ever positive annual EPS, $899M TTM FCF. TD Cowen "turnaround complete" note triggered +20% to $237 on 2026-06-01. Narrative accelerating but price gapped above the entire $200–$235 PT band into CNBC coverage clean entry is a pullback, not the blowoff. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below $197 (2026-06-01 pre-spike breakout / gap-fill) = failed breakout, exit. Also: weekly close below 20-EMA, or Q2 print 2026-07-30 with reported rev growth <14% (FY guide floor) or organic decel below 9.5%. --- ### TWST URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TWST/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Synthetic-DNA tools maker re-rating as a 2nd-order AI-drug-discovery enabler. 2026-06-03/04 Investor Day (Complex Genes launch + Q4-FY26 adj-EBITDA-breakeven roadmap) sparked a +10% gap to a fresh 52-wk high (~$79.58). Narrative accelerating, but a fresh entry chases the gap above the entire analyst PT band ($64 avg / $80 high). Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $70 (fills the 2026-06-04 Investor-Day gap and loses the breakout pivot); or FY26 revenue guide cut below the raised $442M floor; or Q4-FY26 adj-EBITDA-breakeven pushed out on the ~2026-08-03 Q3 print. --- ### TXN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TXN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Analog cyclical recovery inflecting into an AI-data-center-power re-rate: TXN''s new Data Center segment +90% YoY, Q1 rev +19% beat (2026-04-22), upgrade cluster (Seaport $400, BofA $370). Consolidating $308 under the $331.51 ATH with neutral RSI breakout above ATH is the fresh leg; price is above the ~$289 avg PT, so MEDIUM, not a fat pitch. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA (~$292); or analog peers (ADI/MCHP/ON) print order declines signaling the cycle re-rolls into correction; or Q2 guide (2026-07-21) below the $5.0B revenue floor. --- ### U URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/U/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Vector AI ad-engine turnaround accelerating: Strategic Grow +49% YoY Q1 (reported ~May 7), guided +50–52% Q2; Vector ~80% bigger YoY, heading to $1B+ run-rate by YE26. Clustered analyst upgrades (Needham/Piper $40) confirm the narrative going buy-side mainstream. Legacy-pivot grinding off the $16.78 low; no hard catalyst until ~Aug 11. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$26 (pre-breakout base, was $26.94 in May) → breakout failed, exit. OR Q2 print (~2026-08-11): Strategic Grow <+40% YoY vs guided +50–52%, or Vector sequential growth breaking its ~15% QoQ streak → thesis pillar cracked, cut regardless of price. --- ### UCO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UCO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-07 Thesis: Geopolitical supply-shock leg RE-ACCELERATING: Iran-war ceasefire breaking down (Kuwait airport strikes 2026-06-03), Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed (~20% of world oil, ~10.5M bpd Gulf offline), WTI back >$95. 2x-levered long-oil rip but OPEC+ 2026-06-07 and US-Iran peace talks are two-way binaries directly in the path. Invalidation trigger: Announced US–Iran deal / Strait of Hormuz reopening, OR WTI front-month sustained <$88, OR UCO weekly close <$42 (breakout-retest/20-EMA) any one reprices crude toward $80 and craters this 2x ETF; --- ### UI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical, enterprise-networking, wifi7-refresh Next catalyst: 2026-05-11 Thesis: Thin-float networking compounder with GM recovery (35%→42%+) validated by BWS $980 PT on 2026-04-13, the only fresh catalyst on a 2-3 analyst tape. Q3 FY26 print ~May 8-14 is the binary. DORMANT: thesis intact but timing-constrained into earnings. Invalidation trigger: Q3 FY26 GM <40%, OR weekly close below pre-2026-04-13 BWS-upgrade-day base, OR any second analyst downgrade given thin 2-3 analyst coverage. --- ### ULCC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ULCC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: Spirit (SAVE) operational-halt narrative accelerating fast; ULCC is the only clean ultra-low-cost pure-play beneficiary of SAVE's 20%+ domestic ULCC share if SAVE grounds. Binary on SAVE's next 2-3 weeks asymmetric squeeze setup into low float. Invalidation trigger: Spirit secures DIP / emergency fuel financing announcement, OR ULCC daily close below $3.25 (pre-news base), OR jet fuel crack spread > $40 sustained 10d (kills Frontier margin too). --- ### URGN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/URGN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: ZUSDURI launch inflecting first/only FDA drug for LG-IR-NMIBC. Q1'26 rev +152% YoY to $51M, ZUSDURI $29.2M (+100% QoQ), prescribers 102→256 post-J-code. Teva settlement (6/2) clears JELMYTO generic overhang to 2030. Narrative accelerating, but near-term catalyst spent and stock ~6x off lows into 52wk-high resistance. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 50-day (~$21) / early-June swing low ~$22; OR ZUSDURI Q2'26 net revenue below the $29.2M Q1 baseline (sequential launch deceleration breaks the ramp thesis). --- ### VCYT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VCYT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Profitable precision-oncology dx compounder: practice-changing ASCO data (OPTIMA breast + ENZAMET prostate, 2026-05-30) on top of a Q1 beat-and-raise (EPS $0.52 vs ~$0.31, 2026-05-05) drove +40% in a month to 52-wk highs. But both binaries already fired and sell-side is upgrading after the move (Needham $57) narrative MATURING; chasing the post-event high, not a clean entry. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA (~$42, the post-earnings breakout retest); or Q2 2026 testing-revenue growth decelerates below +20% YoY (vs +26% in Q1) / Decipher below +20% (vs +30%). --- ### WEBL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WEBL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: 3X DAILY-leveraged beta on mega-cap internet (META/AMZN/GOOGL); hyperscaler capex super-cycle ($725B 2026 capex, +77% YoY) drove WEBL $18.71→$28.13 since March. But it's a decay-prone vehicle and Broadcom's 6/3 print just cracked tech momentum-continuation trade, NOT a hold. Buying into a fresh wobble is poor timing. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $25.00 (mid-May base / ~50-DMA); OR META+AMZN+GOOGL post 2 consecutive down weeks 3X daily decay compounds the drawdown, cut fast, do not ride it down. --- ### WSC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WSC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Recovering modular-leasing cyclical with a 2nd-order data-center kicker: DC vertical guided +50% rev / pipeline +70%, FY26 guide RAISED to $2.25B rev / $915M EBITDA (Q1 print 2026-05-07). PE-takeover + TOMS activist put a floor under it. Not a fat pitch stock mid-range ($26.5 vs $31.9 52wk high); needs a breakout over $31.88 or a bid to fire. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $22 (breaks the post-Q1 recovery base / ~20-wk EMA); or Q2 print (~2026-08-06) cuts FY26 Adj EBITDA guide below $915M; or PE/TOMS takeover interest publicly dies with no bid. --- ### WTTR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WTTR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Produced-water midstream re-rate: Q1''26 record Water Infra revenue ($96.7M) and a raised FY26 infra-growth guide to 25-30% YoY converted a cyclical OFS name into a contracted-infrastructure story, and 2026-05-29 double Buy initiations (BofA $22, Raymond James bullish) confirm sell-side is just now underwriting it as it reclaims the 200-DMA at ~$19. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below reclaimed 200-DMA (~$17.50); OR WTI crude sustained <$60 collapsing completions/water-volume demand; OR Aug-4 Q2 Adjusted EBITDA below the $77.6M Q1 baseline / infra growth guide cut under 25%. --- ### YSS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/YSS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: Space-defense vertical-integration roll-up accelerating: York beat Q1 (rev $116M vs $110M est, 2026-05-14), affirmed FY26 $545-595M guide, won defense IDIQs (2026-05-06), and bolted on ALL.SPACE satcom + Solestial space-solar (May 18-19). Peer cluster (RKLB/RDW/FFLY) confirms; Wolfpack short (2026-05-11) is the overhang. Invalidation trigger: FY26 sales guide cut below the $545M floor, OR either May acquisition (ALL.SPACE / Solestial) terminated or repriced, OR weekly close back below the pre-M&A base under the $31-$33 PT zone any one validates the Wolfpack short thesis. --- ### AA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Aluminum structural-deficit narrative (Hormuz/Mideast smelter disruption) has gone fully mainstream UBS Buy $80 (05-22) and WF OW $70 (05-07) upgrades are done, CNBC 'Final Trades' named AA 3+ sessions through 2026-06-02, and there's been NO fresh upgrade in 13 days. Theme is MATURING→SATURATED. We missed the early leg at $45-55; chasing near $72/52-wk-high is exit-liquidity risk, not edge. Invalidation trigger: LME 3-mo aluminum closes below $3,400/t (Hormuz de-escalation / premium unwind) OR AA weekly close below 20-EMA (~$62). Either confirms the deficit-narrative leg is broken and the geopolitical premium is bleeding out of the equity. --- ### AAON URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AAON/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] RSI 75 with negative -95% Stocktwits velocity and no dossier; SHLS carries the industrial-power cluster cleaner today consistent with three prior WATCH calls. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### AAPL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AAPL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 DEFER] Theme ai-mag7 MATURING + edge +6.7pp barely passes 5pp floor + RSI 82.5 parabolic quarter-credit + $4T mega-cap dilutes alpha on $5k book Invalidation trigger: Revisit if AAPL closes >290 on >2x ADV with fresh single-name AI catalyst AND theme flips back to ACCELERATING --- ### ABCL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ABCL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Busted-platform turnaround: ABCL re-rated ~74% in 90d off the $2.09 low on ABCL635 Phase 1 success + Q1 revenue beat (+98% YoY) + clustered upgrades. The Q3 2026 ABCL635 Phase 2 VMS topline is the binary that re-rates it but it''s months out and the tape is now digesting a parabolic leg. MATURING, not a fresh chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$4.80 (50-day MA / breakout base) breaks the re-rating uptrend; hard thesis-kill if ABCL635 Phase 2 topline (Q3 2026) shows no significant VMS reduction vs placebo or any hepatotox signal. --- ### ACB URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ACB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-11 Thesis: Cannabis-reschedule sentiment beta but ACB is the WRONG horse: a Canadian LP with zero U.S. THC ops, so the April 24 Schedule-III/280E catalyst doesn''t accrue. Sitting near 52wk low ($3.46 vs $6.67 high); June 11 earnings + June 29 DEA hearing are back-to-back binaries. Probe-only lottery ticket on a downtrend name, not a momentum setup. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 52-week low $3.07 (broken structure); OR June 11 Q4 print misses FY26 medical guide ($269–281M) / adj-EBITDA guide ($52–57M); OR June 29 DEA hearing stays medical-only with no recreational read-through; OR dilutive equity raise announced. --- ### ACHC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ACHC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: specialty-healthcare-late-cycle, behavioral-health-rehab-story, doj-overhang-healthcare Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: Broken-chart specialty-healthcare rehab story. UBS reiterated Buy + PT $31 on 2026-04-17, but single-analyst blip vs. multi-quarter downtrend + unresolved DOJ overhang. No narrative velocity DORMANT. Wait for weekly 20-EMA reclaim on volume AND clean Q1 print before any probe entry. Invalidation trigger: SKIP on any fresh long until weekly close reclaims 20-EMA on >=1.5x avg volume. Any DOJ charging/consent-decree 8-K, Q1 revenue miss vs consensus, or failure to hold $25 handle = hard skip. Stop trigger if probed: breakout-retest low, no exceptions. --- ### ADTN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ADTN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Post-ADVA legacy pivot + BEAD-fiber tailwind. Evercore's 2026-04-14 Outperform/$18 is the first constructive major-broker note in two years, but the trade is binary on the ~2026-05-07 Q1 print need GM% ≥34% and book-to-bill >1.0 to confirm the inflection. Until then: DORMANT, no fresh entry. Invalidation trigger: Q1 2026 print (est. week of 2026-05-07) shows GM% <32% OR book-to-bill <1.0 OR FY26 guide cut; or post-print daily close below 2025 YTD low; or a CIEN/CALX BEAD-revenue pre-announcement miss before ADTN reports. --- ### AFRM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AFRM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: crypto-financials-exchange Next catalyst: 2026-05-08 Thesis: BNPL narrative MATURING into consumer-credit stress cycle; Citizens cut PT to $85 on 2026-04-17 signaling sell-side decelerating. Next binary is Q3 FY26 print ~2026-05-08 GMV growth and 30+ delinquency rate decide whether this is a fresh leg or a value trap. Invalidation trigger: Q3 FY26 print (~2026-05-08): GMV growth <25% YoY OR 30+ delinquency >2.6% OR RLTC margin compression >50bps → thesis broken, skip/short. Technical: weekly close below $55 (prior breakout shelf). --- ### AIP URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AIP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Arteris royalty re-accel, rule 4 fires (1.58x vol), RSI 66 healthy, small-float valid but correlated into the AI-chip cluster already anchored by held TSM/NVDA. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### AKAM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AKAM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Cyber ACCEL theme but rule_3 fails (not within 10% 52w high) and retail velocity -4% FROG cleaner expression but also untradeable, theme covered Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### ALAB URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ALAB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] AI-chip-infra-memory cohort duplicate of TSM but no dossier, RSI 75.9 extended, rule 3 fails TSM wins the slot in this theme cluster. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### ALRIB URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ALRIB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: silicon-photonics, compound-semiconductors, ai-interconnect, quantum-computing-infra, mbe-equipment, picks-and-shovels-ai Thesis: ALRIB = Riber S.A. (EPA:ALRIB), French MBE tool maker. ROSIE silicon-photonics/BTO platform narrative accelerating (+270% 6mo, US + Japan orders Sep-25/Jan-26), BUT no US ADR/OTC → no US-listed equity to trade. Use as theme card for US cousins (COHR/LITE/POET/AEHR), not a direct position. Invalidation trigger: Thesis is moot unless a US ADR/OTC listing appears. If tradable: weekly close below 20-EMA on ALRIB.PA (~€9-10 est), OR H1 2026 revenue <€20m (2H-2025 baseline €22m), OR Japan export license denied. --- ### ALTO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ALTO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: commodity-materials, ethanol-biofuels, specialty-alcohol, deep-value-washout, sub-dollar-compliance-risk Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Sub-$2 ethanol / specialty-alcohol washout with DEAD narrative no flow, no re-rating, no retail velocity. Strictly archetype-5 binary on the ~2026-05-07 Q1 print or an intra-quarter 8-K step-function (Pekin sale, JV, refi). 3-day pre-earnings blackout opens ~2026-05-02; do-nothing until then unless 8-K lands. Invalidation trigger: Reverse-split 8-K, going-concern qualifier in Q1 2026 10-Q (~2026-05-07), Q1 crush spread still negative with cash burn >$8M, or sub-$1.00 close triggering NASDAQ compliance notice any one of these → DORMANT, skip for 90 days. --- ### AMBQ URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMBQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] small-cap-ai ACCEL but RSI 88.5 extreme (most parabolic), thin recent-IPO float, no dossier chasing parabolic blind, deferred 4x; cleaner cluster names exist. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### AMC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-reopening-speculative Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: Archetype-6 squeeze vehicle in a whipsaw range: 2026-04-22 surge follows a -8% day and a failed 2026-04-17 CEO-hype rally. No retail-flow confirmation, no GME co-move. Earnings ~2026-05-05 is binary with a dilution tail. Default SKIP; only tradeable on confirmed coordinated squeeze. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the 2026-04-07 lower-high pivot on expanding volume, OR any 8-K announcing a new ATM/secondary raise, OR Q1 2026 print (~2026-05-05) showing continued share-count growth → thesis dead, remove from watchlist 60d. --- ### AMDY URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMDY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] YieldMax AMD options-overlay ETF covered-call structure caps upside on the exact narrative-momentum leg we want; AMD direct exposure preferred, not in candidate set today. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### AMKR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMKR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-04-28 Thesis: Picks-and-shovels AI-packaging play (#2 global OSAT, Arizona CHIPS-Act fab + Apple multi-year deal) but narrative is MATURING not accelerating, OSAT margin structure caps re-rating, and Q1 '26 earnings are inside the 3–10 trading-day binary window (historical print late-April). Defer until post-print setup. Invalidation trigger: Q1 '26 print (~2026-04-28 est.) with guide-down or Arizona ramp slip; OR weekly close below 20-EMA post-earnings; OR TSM commentary signals CoWoS capacity easing (removes the AMKR-as-alternative thesis). --- ### AMN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Beaten-down healthcare-staffing cyclical. Q1 (5/07) EPS $2.10 crushed $1.62 est, but Q2 revenue guide $620-635M came in light vs $634.9M consensus and sell-side stayed mostly Neutral (PTs $26-32). No accelerating narrative this is a trough/value-trap tape, not a momentum setup. SKIP-quality, DORMANT; LOW conviction at best. Invalidation trigger: reconfirms secular staffing-rate downtrend. Only a weekly close above ~$32 on volume, with bill rates inflecting, flips it to a real long. --- ### AMUU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMUU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: commodity-materials-rare-earths Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: 2x-leveraged AMD wrapper sitting on an 11-day parabolic run (longest since 2005) into a binary Q1 print on 2026-04-30. Narrative real (MI400/OpenAI/Meta) but every beginner-trap flag is on: RSI>75, 18% stretched above 20-EMA underlying, earnings 10d out, peak-retail leveraged vehicle. DEFER through the print. Invalidation trigger: AMD weekly close below 20-EMA ($235) OR Q1'26 revenue <$9.5B OR Q2 guide <$10.2B on 2026-04-30 print. --- ### AMZU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMZU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-mag7-software-platforms Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: AMZU = Direxion Daily AMZN Bull 2X leveraged ETF. Thesis is just "2x-expression of AMZN's AI/AWS narrative into the Q1 2026 print (~late-April/early-May)". Theme-tag "M&A/activism/special-sits" is a discovery-engine mis-label flag and retag. No standalone narrative of its own. Invalidation trigger: AMZN Q1 2026 print misses AWS growth >=20% YoY OR guides CapEx below consensus → AMZU gaps -15%+ next session. Also: weekly close below 20-EMA on AMZN (the reference asset), or AMZU ADV sub-$20M for 5 sessions (liquidity kill). --- ### AMZZ URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMZZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-mag7-software-platforms Thesis: No trade complete data vacuum. AMZZ tagged into m-and-a-activism-special-sits bucket on 2026-04-20 but zero headlines, zero filings, zero price context. Dormant until a 13D, definitive merger agreement, or tender offer surfaces. Placeholder dossier pending next refresh. Invalidation trigger: Remove from watchlist if 30 days pass with no 13D/8-K/merger headline, or if ADDV confirmed <$500k (uninvestable). --- ### ANAB URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ANAB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Thesis: [Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] Outpacing SGMT in same biotech-precision theme (+57pp vs +51pp, momentum top 1%); fresh untested name Stage 2 should decide whether to add or rotate from SGMT. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### AOSL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AOSL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: Power-discrete AI-content second-derivative play; B. Riley PT raise to $25 (2026-04-13) + two-session momentum tape (2026-04-14, 2026-04-20) = narrative discovery phase into FY26 Q3 print (~2026-05-06). Binary on earnings; no confirmed AI design win yet. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $20 on no news, OR FY26 Q3 revenue miss vs consensus, OR Q4 guide implies <5% YoY growth, OR China export-control headline hitting Chongqing JV. --- ### APGE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/APGE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-05-15 Thesis: Pure-play next-gen Dupixent disruptor with half-life-extended IL-13/IL-4Rα/OX40L antibodies; APG777 Part B dose-optimization data in atopic dermatitis is the next binary. DORMANT framework-ready, not actively in play without fresh price context and catalyst-date confirmation. Invalidation trigger: APG777 Part B highest-dose EASI-75 <55% OR non-monotonic dose response OR serious AE signal >3% not in Dupixent label. Structural veto: weekly close below prior 3-month swing low on ≥3x avg volume. --- ### APLS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/APLS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: rare-disease-approvals Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: Biogen-deal re-rating (2026-04-06) already digested; Wells Fargo Equal-Weight at $41 PT (2026-04-17) caps upside. Next impulse is binary on ~2026-05-06 Q1 print Syfovre net revs + Empaveli C3G ramp. MATURING, not ACCELERATING. Watch-only. Invalidation trigger: Close below 2026-04-04 pre-Biogen-deal price (full gap fill) OR Q1 Syfovre net revenue <$140M OR any fresh Syfovre safety communication from FDA/AAO/ASRS within 30d. --- ### ASX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ASX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] OSAT chip proxy, 5 rules, but rule 10=0 (not in any registry theme today), ~104% above 200-DMA, P/E 53, Nvidia-Halo trade gone mainstream extended/late with no cluster confirm. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### ATAI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ATAI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: Consolidated-psychedelic-leader narrative (AtaiBeckley merger + 22.4% Compass stake, both COMP360 Phase 3 trials positive, BPL-003 EOP2 cleared) has ALREADY fired. Tape rolled from $6.75 to $4.53 with no hard data catalyst until early-Q3 COMP006 Part B. MATURING/faded, not a fresh momentum entry. Invalidation trigger: Long invalidated on weekly close below $4.00 (opens air pocket toward $2 low). For a re-entry probe: failure to reclaim/hold $5.00 into the early-Q3 COMP006 Part B catalyst, or BPL-003 Phase 3 initiation slipping past Q2 2026. --- ### ATEN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ATEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical, ai-infra-adjacent, small-cap-networking Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Sell-side narrative just fractured: Sidoti downgrade to $24 on 2026-04-20 directly contradicts Mizuho's $27 raise from 2026-04-14. Mixed-signal regime into Q1 print (~2026-05-07) kills directional edge DORMANT, no entry pre-earnings. Invalidation trigger: Sell-side split confirmed negative by a third desk cutting PT below $22, OR Q1 revenue prints below $63M, OR a second downgrade within 14 days of Sidoti's 2026-04-20 cut. Conversely, thesis REACTIVATES if Q1 revenue ≥ $72M and FY26 guide raised. --- ### ATEX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ATEX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Korea-Asia semi-beta fresh theme conf 0.70; RSI 71.9 healthy + Stocktwits +100% but no dossier yet wait for setup development and theme confirmation Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### ATI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ATI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Aerospace/defense materials supercycle picks-and-shovels ATI titanium/superalloys into the jet-engine + airframe build. Stock ripped +11% to a new ATH ($183.30) post Q1 beat-and-raise, but now trades AT consensus PT (~$179.56) with no catalyst until the ~late-July Q2 print. Momentum real, entry is a late-stage chase probe only. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below $168 (prior-ATH breakout shelf) = failed breakout; or weekly close below 20-EMA (~$163). Also kill on an FY26 guide cut or Q2 jet-engine growth decelerating below the mid-teens YoY guide. --- ### ATKR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ATKR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] industrial-power-AI tag but cheap commodity cyclical, sell-side Neutral, price above avg PT, historically ~15% wide spread chasing a +11% spike is poor R/R. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### AUGO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AUGO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: commodity-materials-rare-earths Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: Gold-producer re-rate on $3,200+ spot + Era Dorada growth leg, but 2026-04-14 CAPEX hike to $386–463M (+65% mid) is an overhang into Q1 print (~2026-05-13). Probe only wait for AISC and FCF guide. Invalidation trigger: Q1 2026 AISC >$1,650/GEO on ~2026-05-13 print, OR 2026 CAPEX re-guided >$463M top, OR gold spot weekly close <$2,900, OR Era Dorada first-production slipped beyond H1 2028. --- ### AUR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AUR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Themes: autonomous-vehicles-robotics Thesis: [Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] NEW autonomous theme ACCEL conf 0.72 McLane Berkshire-Hathaway driverless freight live in TX, Needham $13 PT, RSI 82 parabolic but fresh structural catalyst Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### AVGX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AVGX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: commodity-materials-rare-earths Thesis: 2x daily-leveraged ETF on Broadcom (AVGO), not a stock. Custom-silicon hyperscaler-ASIC narrative is MATURING (AVGX +195% TTM). Only a tactical tool for short-window catalyst trades into AVGO Q2 FY26 print (~2026-06-05 est.). Leveraged-ETF decay forbids core-sizing. Invalidation trigger: AVGO weekly close below its 20-EMA (translates to ~2x AVGX drawdown); OR AVGX NAV bleeds >5% while AVGO trades flat over 2-3 weeks (decay regime); OR NVDA 2026-05-28 guide cut triggering AI-chip narrative crack. --- ### AVL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AVL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: commodity-materials-rare-earths Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: Unidentified small-cap in commodity-materials basket; likely Avalon Advanced Materials (TSX:AVL) rare-earth/lithium play, but ticker-specific data (price, ADV, filings, catalysts) still absent as of 2026-04-20. DORMANT until first verified datapoint no entry until identity confirmed and a clean setup prints. Invalidation trigger: Any of: (a) pipeline confirms AVL is a shell/SPAC/dead OTC with <$500k 20-day ADV → drop from watchlist; (b) MP Materials Q1 print (~2026-05-06) NdPr realised <$60/kg → rare-earth cohort thesis broken; (c) weekly close below 200-DMA on >1.5x ADV once price data lands. --- ### AVNS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AVNS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-05-14 Thesis: AVNS agreed 2026-04-14 to go private at $1.272B all-cash to American Industrial Partners narrative is DEAD and replaced by merger-arb pin. No momentum trade here; tape will flatline into close. Invalidation trigger: Deal break or withdrawal (price gap >10% below implied cash consideration), OR competing higher bid announced. Either flips this from dead-arb to event trade. --- ### AVR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AVR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Structural-heart disruptor de-risking on PARADIGM pivotal milestones (first US patients 5/5, CMS coverage 4/28, Medtronic stake, Barclays PT $18). But +448% YoY into a $250M TD Cowen ATM at ~$9 = live dilution ceiling, stock pinned on the offer price, and the real binary (1-yr data) is ~2028. MATURING, not a clean accelerating entry. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$7.50 (loses post-January-raise base); any PARADIGM safety/mortality signal or enrollment pause; or repeated ATM issuance caps rallies and round-trips price under $8. --- ### AZZ URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AZZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Thesis remains intact industrial-power-ai theme ACCELERATING (0.94 conf), Q4 beat + FY27 guide affirmed, dual PT raises to $152/$169, rules 1/3/5/6 firing with Stocktwits velocity flipping to +223% (vs -42% last week). BUT execution is still broken: live quote bid $123.43 / ask $166.50 is ~26% wide; an IOC at ask×1.002 prints ~$166.83 vs mid $144.97 instantly torching ~15% of R/R before the trade starts. Wait for tradeable book (<3% spread) AND 20-EMA pullback chasing within 10% of 52w high through this quote is the late-cycle chase the post-mortem warned about. Invalidation trigger: Exit watchlist if (a) spread stays >5% wide for 5 more sessions AND Stocktwits velocity rolls back negative, OR (b) price breaks below $130 (20-EMA / breakout pivot zone) on volume, invalidating the structure entirely. --- ### BAK URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BAK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Deep-cyclical Brazilian petrochem, NOT a momentum name. Only live angle is the perennial Novonor stake-sale + Braskem Idesa debt-restructuring binary. Nothing accelerating now; the Q1 print (2026-05-13) bounce already faded. Skip until a concrete M&A/restructuring headline prints on volume. Invalidation trigger: No long thesis to invalidate posture is SKIP. A would-be event bounce is dead if: Braskem Idesa creditor/bankruptcy-loan deal collapses, OR Novonor stake-sale is again shelved, OR BAK weekly close below ~$3 ADR support (est.). Any of these = stay flat. --- ### BAND URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BAND/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] small-cap-ai tag but it''s CPaaS post-Q1 (archetype-5), single B.Riley PT, no chorus, no accelerating narrative leg RSI 82.5 parabolic momentum reading without a fresh driver. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### BIDU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BIDU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Autonomous theme NEW but no dossier yet; AUR is cleaner thematic expression with concrete McLane catalyst today Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### BITX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BITX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Crypto bull narrative has BROKEN: BTC lost $70K (intraday $65,710 on 2026-06-03), 12 straight days of spot-ETF outflows (~$3.58B), MSTR''s first sale since 2022 killed the perma-bid. A 2x daily-reset ETF near 52-wk lows into a confirmed downtrend is a falling-knife SKIP, not a momentum long. Invalidation trigger: Avoid stays until BTC weekly-closes back above ~$73K with a higher low (BITX reclaims 20-wk EMA) AND ETF flows turn net-positive ≥3 sessions. Today it''s a downtrend: below 20/50/100-day EMAs, $65K testing, RSI~35. Loss of $65K opens $60K do NOT buy that dip. --- ### BLZE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BLZE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] small-cap-ai ACCEL, cleanest RSI in the cluster (52.8, fully reset), +78.6pp vs SPX, raised guide + Lake St $11; below 52w high (rule 3 fail) caps it to a LOW probe. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### BTBT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BTBT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Holdco SOTP discount, NOT a momentum setup: BTBT''s $691M mcap is below its 27M-share WYFI stake alone (~$767M at $28.36) plus ~158k ETH (~$330M). But the tape is broken (-25% 12mo, -8.6% on 6/3, $1.85) and the AI-infra momentum lives in WYFI, not here. Value-trap shape in a hot theme probe-only. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $1.70 (post-spinoff base) = downtrend continuation, no bid, value-trap confirmed. OR WYFI weekly close below $24 the stake is >100% of BTBT mcap, so WYFI weakness directly de-rates the SOTP floor. --- ### BTE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BTE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-07 Thesis: Oil supply-shock beta: Hormuz still ~closed (7-11 vs ~100 ships/day) keeps WTI ~$90, but the premium is deflating oil -20% off peak on US-Iran ceasefire optimism. BTE deleveraged to $591M net cash in the windfall, but it''s +198% off lows near 52wk highs. Mature, late-stage theme; chasing $5 here is the trap, not the setup. Invalidation trigger: WTI sustained below $80/bbl OR strait transit normalizing above ~60 vessels/day (supply premium gone); confirmed by BTE weekly close below 20-week EMA (~$4.70 / C$6.40). --- ### BTGO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BTGO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Broken-IPO falling knife: BTGO down ~69% from its $18 IPO (Jan 2026) to $5.61, sitting on all-time lows after a Q1 EBITDA miss, with a July lockup overhang. Real crypto-custody franchise but dead tape avoid until a base forms; only live wire is the binary Galaxy $100M verdict. Invalidation trigger: Until then, a new low below $5.42 just confirms the downtrend. Do not buy weakness no setup exists at spot. --- ### BULL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BULL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Webull is the broken laggard of the prediction-market/retail-brokerage trade Q1 rev +36% beat (2026-05-21) yet stock sits ~$5.90, ~93% below its 2025 squeeze high and just above the $4.50 ATL. HOOD owns the narrative; BULL has no momentum. No long until a confirmed base + 200-day reclaim. Invalidation trigger: No long valid while price trades below the 50-day (~$6.1) and 200-day (~$9.2). Daily close below $4.50 (2026-04-02 ATL) = falling-knife confirmed, stay flat. Bull setup requires base + reclaim of 50/200-day on volume. --- ### BULZ URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BULZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-04-28 Thesis: 3x leveraged FANG+ ETN amplified mega-cap AI/tech beta, not a standalone narrative. Trade-able ONLY if NYFANG is trending above rising 20-EMA with VIX<18. Big-tech Q1 earnings cluster (2026-04-22 → 2026-05-02) is the binary; NVDA ~2026-05-28 is the cap. Theme tag "m-and-a-activism" is a taxonomy error. Invalidation trigger: NYFANG (FANG+ Index) weekly close below its 20-EMA, OR VIX sustained above 22 for 5+ sessions, OR two FANG+ mega-caps miss Q1 2026 earnings (breadth break). --- ### BWET URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BWET/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Iran-war/Hormuz freight-spike that drove BWET +725% YTD to $173.78 (5/22) is now DEFLATING on US-Iran ceasefire optimism oil -20% off peak, fund back to ~$165. SATURATED blow-off (mainstream "1,406%" coverage, lower high vs March $216.50). Not a fresh buy; only a ceasefire breakdown re-arms the long. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $150 (under 5/26 day-low $154.95 and 5/29 swing $158.86) plus VLCC MEG-China spot sustained <$80k/day (vs March record $423,736) = war catalyst dead, fade confirmed, exit any long. --- ### CADL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CADL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Thesis: [Stage 1 DEFER] Biotech archetype-5 binary catalyst with 5/15 extended-FU Phase 3 conference call ~2 trading days out hard earnings-blackout rule applies, no fresh entries within 3 TD of binary. Invalidation trigger: Revisit after 2026-05-15 Phase 3 conference call readout if data confirms efficacy and clean post-readout structure forms above 20-EMA, re-evaluate fresh setup --- ### CAL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CAL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-reopening-speculative Next catalyst: 2026-05-28 Thesis: Caleres is a tired low-multiple footwear name with no accelerating narrative leg right now only a speculative "consumer reopening" thread and a binary Q1 print (~late May). Probe-only name unless the print re-rates the brand portfolio story. Invalidation trigger: Q1 FY2026 EPS miss AND guide-down on Famous Footwear comps (>-MSD); OR weekly close below the prior-quarter swing low; OR tariff escalation headline hitting China/Vietnam footwear sourcing before the print. --- ### CCRN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CCRN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-22 Thesis: Not a momentum trade CCRN is a pinned cash-merger-arb. Aya's $18.61 deal died on FTC antitrust Dec-2025; Knox Lane (PE, no overlap) now buying at $13.25 cash, Q3-2026 close. Stock $13.12 = ~1% gross spread. No narrative leg, capped upside, asymmetric break-downside. SKIP. Invalidation trigger: Trade-ending events: (a) deal closes at $13.25 cash + delist no further upside; (b) merger-termination 8-K (HSR second request, financing or shareholder-vote failure) gaps CCRN from $13.12 toward ~$9–10 standalone. Any close below $12.50 on deal-doubt also invalidates a long. --- ### CDNL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CDNL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits, ai-datacenter-picks-and-shovels, micro-cap-special-sits Next catalyst: 2026-05-15 Thesis: Dormant micro-cap civil contractor just printed a $24M data-center contract (2026-04-09) and got tagged into the M&A/activism/special-sits basket potential picks-and-shovels + special-sits double-catalyst, but ticker-to-entity mapping, float, and liquidity are unverified. Probe only, not a fat pitch. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 2026-04-09 news-day low, OR 10d ADV confirmed <$200k (untradeable), OR CDNL ticker does not map to the Cardinal Infrastructure entity in the contract PR, OR Q1 2026 print shows the $24M contract is <10% of annual revenue. --- ### CERS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CERS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Blood-safety turnaround: Q1''26 (4/30) hit adjusted-EBITDA positive (+$4.0M) on +24% product revenue and a raised FY guide ($227–231M), driving a ~2.7x off the $1.15 low. But the re-rate is largely done MATURING, RSI-overbought near $2.8 highs with no fresh 30-day catalyst. Watch/probe, don''t chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$2.40 (20-week EMA) = turnaround momentum broken; OR FY26 product-rev guidance cut below the $227M floor on the Q2 (~late-July) print; OR adjusted EBITDA flips back negative; OR RedeS Phase 3 RBC readout (H2'26) negative. --- ### CEVA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CEVA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Chip cluster UBS $42 PT, RSI 75 extended, no dossier, negative velocity cluster covered by stronger held names. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### CGC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CGC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-15 Thesis: Cannabis-reclassification is ACCELERATING at the policy layer (April Schedule III partial reschedule; DEA broader hearing 2026-06-29), but CGC is a broken-structure value-trap proxy ($1.05, near 52-wk low) carrying a 2026-06-15 earnings print bundled with a two-year financial restatement. LOW-conviction lottery ticket, not a momentum setup. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below 52-week low $0.84; OR 2026-06-15 restatement triggers going-concern doubt; OR 2026-06-29→07-15 DEA hearing leaves recreational marijuana in Schedule I. --- ### CLF URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CLF/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Thesis broken Q1 EPS miss + Morgan Stanley PT cut to $12, rule 3 broken (50<200); theme tag by-association only track for a genuine narrative re-fire, not a buy. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### CLFD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CLFD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] 5 rules + Stocktwits +149% but RSI 77.5 extended, no theme membership, no dossier single-name chase without cluster edge. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### CLOV URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CLOV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 DEFER] Health-managed-care MATURING, velocity-only setup (Stocktwits +197% with rule_10 attention flat), no cluster confirm defensive late-cycle rotation Invalidation trigger: Revisit on theme re-acceleration OR fresh Medicare-reform regulatory catalyst --- ### CMBT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CMBT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Geopolitical tanker super-spike printing record earnings VLCC ~$182k/day Q2-to-date (81% fixed) vs $46k 10-yr avg, Q1 EPS $1.27. But it''s a mean-reverting cyclical at a Hormuz-driven peak: stock is ~12% off its high on a blowout Q1, the catalyst (2026-05-19 print) is behind us, and no hard catalyst inside 30d. Late-cycle, not a fresh momentum entry. Invalidation trigger: VLCC spot TCE rolls below $60,000/day (Hormuz risk premium unwinding) OR weekly close below the 20-EMA (~$14.50) OR a Middle-East ceasefire/de-escalation headline. --- ### CMG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CMG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Multi-year Chipotle compounding story has BROKEN: fresh 52-week low 2026-06-03 + Morgan Stanley downgrade to Equal-Weight/$37 same day, on margin compression and a consumer-spending slowdown hitting the whole fast-casual cohort. Dead tape, falling knife Invalidation trigger: Avoid-stance flips only on a weekly close back above the 20-EMA (~$42 est.) after a higher low + positive Q2 comp print. Until then every bounce is a sell; sustained closes below the $37 MS target confirm the downtrend. --- ### CMPS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CMPS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: SKIP dossier-defined invalidation has fired: theme Psychedelic-Mental-Health downgraded ACCELERATING→MATURING, Rule 10 fails, volume collapsed to 0.99x ADV (was 2.83x), StockTwits velocity +367%→+51%. Last news 4/24 FDA voucher cluster; 5 days of dead tape, price drifted $8.78→$8.32, RSI still 69.9. Rules 1/2/5/6 are residual momentum, not fresh catalyst. Stacking a third archetype-7 retail-reflex bet (already hold APLD + SGMT both red) with no options/insider confirmation is the exact trap. Stage 1 prior LOW, no rank pass. Invalidation trigger: Re-fire only if theme flips back to ACCELERATING with news z>2.0 AND CMPS prints a 20-EMA pullback-and-reclaim on volume >1.5x ADV, OR a hard catalyst (BTD grant, pivotal trial readout, FDA filing acceptance) hits with options-flow confirmation. --- ### CNC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CNC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 DEFER] Health-managed-care theme conf 0.48 (weakest in set), velocity-only confirm, no dossier defensive late-cycle rotation, weakest expression of the cluster Invalidation trigger: Revisit on theme re-acceleration with sell-side upgrade cluster --- ### CODI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CODI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits Thesis: Post-fraud holding co (Lugano Diamonds accounting scandal, dividend suspended). Narrative is DEAD, not accelerating. B. Riley Neutral / $10.50 PT on 2026-04-07 caps upside. No momentum setup SKIP for narrative-momentum book until a clean audit or SEC settlement fires. Invalidation trigger: Thesis only turns tradeable on (a) weekly close > $12 on >2x avg volume confirming audit resolution, OR (b) clean 10-K filing with unqualified audit opinion. Below $7 = distress/delisting tail --- ### CPIX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CPIX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Micro-cap pharma mid-transformation: a $100M Apotex asset-sale (vs $84M cap) re-rated it 3x off $1.85 lows; ifetroban pipeline (Feb-4 DMD Fast Track, Jun-2 metastasis data 0 vs 3 deaths, p=0.037) is the optionality. But the deal is priced, June data was shrugged (+1.2%, subdued vol), it sits near the 52w high, and ~$215K/day liquidity makes it un-tradeable at size. MATURING/SATURATED, not accelerating. Invalidation trigger: Apotex $100M asset-sale terminated or repriced lower, OR weekly close below ~$5.00 (post-deal breakout base / 20-EMA zone). Either kills the re-rating leg. --- ### CRS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: rule_2 edge fails (-1.31pp), no dossier MP carries the commodity-materials-rare-earths exposure already Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### CRVS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRVS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: rare-disease-approvals Next catalyst: 2026-05-12 Thesis: Single-asset biotech binary riding a 5-day-old Goldman initiation (Buy, $40 PT, 2026-04-17). Soquelitinib Phase 1 oral-AD readout ~2026-05-12 is the whole trade. No confirming sell-side yet, no pullback. Watch, don't buy chase risk is textbook here. Invalidation trigger: Gap fill of the 2026-04-17 Goldman-initiation candle on >1.5x 20d avg volume (thesis round-tripped without new data), OR any 8-K announcing ATM/secondary offering before Q1 print, OR zero tier-1 confirming initiations (MS/JPM/Jefferies) by 2026-05-01. --- ### CRWL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRWL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-25 Thesis: CRWL is 2x-DAILY CRWD, not an equity. CrowdStrike's business is genuinely ACCELERATING Q1 FY27 (2026-06-03) printed a 4th straight accelerating revenue quarter (+26%), record net-new ARR ($256M, +32%), raised FY27 guide. But the stock sold the news ~9-11% on a billings miss after +60% YTD, so the 2x ETF gapped ~-18%. Fundamentally intact, price leg broken wait for a higher-low reclaim, don't knife-catch a decaying leveraged wrapper. Invalidation trigger: CRWD daily close below ~$650 (surrenders the April-low rally base). Also dead if CRWD's Q2 FY27 net-new-ARR guide is cut, killing the re-acceleration thesis. No-touch until CRWD reclaims its pre-print zone (~$775). --- ### CSIQ URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CSIQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Solar-energy-transition new probe theme conf only 0.55 + RSI 76.9 extended + rule 10 fails (attention flat) first sighting, no comparative edge, wait for theme conviction lift. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### DAWN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DAWN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, pediatric-oncology, single-asset-commercial-biotech Next catalyst: 2026-05-12 Thesis: Single-asset pediatric-oncology binary: Ojemda (tovorafenib) ramp + FIREFLY-2 front-line pLGG P3 is the whole story. DORMANT tape, no fresh catalyst inside 30d other than ~2026-05-07/14 Q1 print and ASCO 2026 abstract drop not a narrative-momentum fat pitch right now. Invalidation trigger: Q1 2026 Ojemda net product revenue <$35M OR FY2026 guide cut OR FIREFLY-2 enrollment/safety pause disclosed in 10-Q OR weekly close breaks the post-April 2024 accel-approval base on heavy volume. --- ### DDD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DDD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Resurrected 3D-printing retail narrative, no registry theme, no dossier, RSI 68; no comparative edge vs accelerating clusters deferred prior, consistent. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### DDOG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DDOG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] RSI 88.6 extreme parabolic with no narrative confirm rule 5 didn''t fire, late-cycle blowoff in cooling cohort Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### DOCN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DOCN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] 5 rules + Stocktwits +196% but no theme membership, first sighting (no dossier), no cluster confirm single-name retail signal, no edge today. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### DPST URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DPST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Regional-bank M&A + rate-cut steepener narrative accelerating under Trump-Bessent OCC; DPST is the 3x leveraged rental on KRE. Q1 regional bank earnings (Apr 22–25) and 2026-05-07 FOMC are the binary catalysts. Decay-prone vehicle 1–4 week momentum rental only, never a core hold. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close in DPST below rising 20-EMA, OR KRE loses 6-month rising trendline, OR any regional bank failure / emergency Fed liquidity facility headline. Also: FOMC turns hawkish (cuts removed from 2026 path) on 2026-05-07. --- ### DRTS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DRTS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Fresh biotech-precision seed today: RSI 70, Stocktwits +367%, top 1.3% momentum compelling early narrative but theme MATURING + no dossier; track for theme re-acceleration. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### DSGN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DSGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Binary readout ALREADY FIRED: RESTORE-FA topline (2026-05-18) for DT-216P2 gapped +14% then closed -28.88% at $10.22 as open-label n=16 mFARS/biomarker data underwhelmed the run-up toward $17. Narrative leg is SPENT no hard catalyst for 30d, next is the Q4-2026 registrational update. Sell-the-news wreckage, not a momentum buy here. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $9.90 (2026-05-18 reversal low) confirms broken post-data structure → no long. Also: new SAE/ALT escalation in RESTORE-FA extension, FECD biomarker miss, or registrational-path setback at the Q4-2026 update. No re-long unless weekly close reclaims the $14.37 data-day high on volume. --- ### DVA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DVA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Dialysis volume-recovery + GLP-1-fear-reversal re-rate: +70% YTD to ~$195. Q1 beat (adj EPS $2.87 vs $2.33, reported May 5) drove a +27.6% gap and a raised FY guide. But price now sits ABOVE avg analyst PT ($193.71), near ATH ($202.69), Berkshire trimming, no catalyst until Q2 (~early Aug) narrative MATURING, fresh entry here is chasing a late re-rate. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 20-week EMA (~$165) breaks the uptrend; OR Q2 2026 print (~early Aug) shows treatments/day below Q1's 91,650 with no guidance raise signals the volume-recovery narrative has rolled over. --- ### DXYZ URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DXYZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Themes: space-satellite Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Space-satellite private-exposure SPAC, no dossier body, Stocktwits +164% RKLB is the cleaner cluster expression with actual dossier and post-Q1 binary cleared. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### ELVR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ELVR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Themes: commodity-materials-rare-earths Thesis: [Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] Critical-minerals cluster confirm with held MP: Canadian C$145M govt convertible + IRR raise, theme ACCEL 0.88, Stocktwits +172%, RSI 63.5 healthy, no dossier yet clean LOW-probe candidate. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### ENPH URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ENPH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Industrial-power-AI cluster duplicate of SHLS but RSI 77 parabolic and theme attention flat SHLS is the cleaner expression today, consistent with three prior WATCH calls. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### ERAS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ERAS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: rare-disease-approvals Next catalyst: 2026-04-25 Thesis: RAS-pipeline binary catalyst. ERAS-0015 Ph1 readout narrowed to mid-May 2026 (PR 2026-04-21) stacks with AACR posters 2026-04-25 to 04-30, but the 2026-04-13 -11.52% circuit-breaker halt remains unexplained 9 sessions later. No edge to initiate until the halt is reconciled by 8-K or PR. Invalidation trigger: 8-K within 30 days discloses dilutive equity raise, SEACRAFT-2 enrollment/safety pause, or cash runway cut below Q4 2026; OR ERAS-0015 mid-May Ph1 readout shows <15% ORR or dose-limiting tox; OR weekly close 2026-05-01 fails to reclaim pre-halt range on rising volume. --- ### ESPR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ESPR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Stocktwits +335% but vol ratio 0.25x (extreme contraction), no dossier, biotech-precision MATURING single-day flash with no follow-through Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### ETON URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ETON/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-05-11 Thesis: [Stage 1 DEFER] Q1 binary (~5/11) already cleared, dossier doesn''t show fresh ignition, CFO transition 6/1 caps conviction sub-$1B mcap with ADV-driven slippage budget eats edge Invalidation trigger: Revisit on ET-400 NDA acceptance 8-K with PDUFA date OR confirmed product revenue >$20M re-run --- ### EVC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/EVC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] small-cap-ai ACCEL but post +85% AH blowoff, rule 3 broken, -94% velocity, no dossier; cluster covered by the cleaner BLZE probe. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### EVER URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/EVER/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Auto-insurance ad-spend recovery supercycle (drove +83% rev Q1'25) has MATURED Q1'26 rev +15% to $190.9M, three-quarter sequential plateau ~$190M. Stock round-tripped $30→$16.63, bounced to ~$19.40, above 50-DMA but stuck under 200-DMA $22.49. No accelerating leg, no catalyst in 30d (Q2 ~Aug). Watch-only until a home-vertical re-accel reclaims $22.49. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below 50-DMA ~$17.10 = recovery bounce failed, reverts to base. No long entry while price stays under 200-DMA $22.49. Thesis fully broken if Q2'26 (~Aug) VMD guides below $55M low-end, signaling carrier ad-spend rollover. --- ### EXTR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/EXTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-10 Thesis: Legacy enterprise-networking name re-rated ~+98% in 3mo on AI-native "Platform ONE/Agent ONE" story + SaaS ARR +29% YoY. Narrative now MATURING: sell-side PTs (~$26) sit BELOW the $28.79 price, insiders selling into 52-wk highs, no catalyst for 30d. Fresh-entry edge is gone at the high wait for a 20-EMA pullback. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $24.50 (early-May breakout pivot) negates the breakout; weekly close below 20-week EMA (~$22) ends the re-rate. Fundamentally: Q4 revenue below the $330M guide floor or SaaS ARR growth decelerating below ~20% YoY. --- ### FBL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FBL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: META AI/superintelligence narrative flipped from accelerating to "show-me-the-margin" after the 2026-04-29 capex raise to $125-145B; META -22% from Aug-2025 ATH, below its 200-DMA, chopping. FBL (1.5x daily-reset ETF) bleeds in this tape no momentum leg to buy here. Invalidation trigger: META weekly close below $573 (Apr-2026 swing low) → continuation toward the $520 52-wk low; exit any FBL long. No momentum entry until META reclaims 200-DMA (~$660) on a weekly close. --- ### FCEL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FCEL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-08 Thesis: AI data-center power narrative (SDCL 450MW LOI, pipeline +275% since Feb '25) drove FCEL +237%/52wk to ~$21.81 2.4x the $9 avg analyst PT. Parabolic, low-float, ~7.5% short, now fully binary on the 2026-06-08 Q2 print. Strength is real but this is peak-retail into earnings, not a fresh-entry setup. Invalidation trigger: Q2 print 2026-06-08 misses ~$40M consensus revenue (repeat of Q1's $30.5M vs $47.9M miss) or guides down/signals dilution; OR daily close below $16 (prior breakout shelf / ~20-EMA) confirms post-earnings breakdown toward the $9 analyst-PT gravity. --- ### FIVN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FIVN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Legacy seat-based CCaaS incumbent racing to out-grow its own AI self-disruption: AI ARR +68% ($125M) but core CCaaS only +8% and total revenue decelerated to +9% (Q1 2026). Stock rolled over $26→$24 (-9% in 3 days), no catalyst until Q2 print (~Aug). Contested narrative, NOT accelerating watch, don''t chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $22 (post-Q1 recovery base lost), or Q2 print (~early Aug) showing AI ARR growth decelerating below 50% YoY while core CCaaS seat revenue goes flat-to-negative confirms self-disruption outrunning AI monetization. Below $20 = recovery dead. --- ### FLY URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FLY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] space-satellite ACCEL but RSI 81 parabolic, 4 rules, no real dossier; weaker expression than PL cluster already covered by the PL probe. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### FN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Networking-optical post-Q3 record but ''don''t thank Nvidia'' (telecom-driven), edge fails rule_2, negative velocity Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### FORM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FORM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semicap-equipment Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: HBM probe-card picks-and-shovels play into ~2026-05-06 Q1 print. Street PTs raised to $125/$130 (Cantor/B. Riley Apr 2026) but B. Riley simultaneously downgraded to Neutral re-rate done, guide is the binary. Dormant, no entry without post-print confirmation or clean pre-earnings breakout. Invalidation trigger: Q2 2026 revenue guide midpoint below $185M on ~2026-05-06 print, OR second sell-side downgrade to Neutral/Sell from Cantor or top-tier shop, OR SK hynix Q1 call (~2026-04-24) guides HBM capex flat/down. --- ### FPS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FPS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Industrial-power new seed, Stocktwits +367% but rule_3 compute failed, options history 1d, no dossier premature; STRL carries cluster. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### FROG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FROG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Cyber-security-software ACCEL but flagged 15% bid/ask spread + RSI 77 parabolic on 0.76x volume structurally untradeable today Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### FTNT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FTNT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: AI-cyber leg already fired: FTNT +56% YTD to ~$146, Q1 beat (May 6) is 4wks stale, 56.8x P/E, RSI ~80, price ABOVE nearly every analyst PT ($96 fair value, $115 neutral cluster, $150 BTIG bull). CNBC/IBD-retail coverage = late/SATURATED. No catalyst until Q2 Aug 12. Fresh entry = chasing; want a 20-EMA pullback. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA (~$130), or cyber ETFs HACK/CIBR breaking below their May record highs → theme SATURATED→DEAD. Any momentum long: hard stop on daily close <$132 (under 50-day structure). --- ### FWRD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FWRD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: Busted-merger special-sits: Omni deal over-levered FWRD, activists (Ancora, Irenic) forced strategic review, but 18 months on no deal has closed and Stifel just *cut* PT to $30 on 2026-04-16. Narrative velocity is negative, not accelerating DORMANT until a definitive bid headline or a leverage-step-down print. Invalidation trigger: Strategic review publicly terminated with no sale, OR weekly close below $15 (deal-premium priced out), OR Q1 2026 print (est. 2026-05-05/08) shows leverage >6.5x with no update on strategic alternatives language. --- ### GBTG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GBTG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Announced all-cash take-private: Long Lake buys Amex GBT at $9.50/share (~$6.3B), closing 2H 2026, with 69% of holders locked via voting agreements. Stock pinned at ~$9.34 pure merger-arb, ~1.7% capped upside vs ~36% deal-break tail. No momentum leg. Not our setup. Invalidation trigger: Already invalid as momentum (price capped at $9.50). As a long-arb it breaks on any 8-K terminating/revising the $9.50 Long Lake merger, a regulatory block, or price breaking below $8.50 (rising break odds → revert to pre-deal ~$6, −36%). --- ### GCO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GCO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-reopening-speculative Next catalyst: 2026-05-28 Thesis: Small-cap specialty footwear (Journeys/J&M/Schuh) with a stale reopening tag and no accelerating narrative. Only reason to engage is a binary Q1 FY27 print (~late May 2026) with Journeys comp as the swing variable otherwise dead tape. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA, OR Q1 FY27 Journeys comps negative YoY, OR earnings date confirmed ≤3 trading days out (defer rule). --- ### GDRZF URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GDRZF/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: aussie-gold-m-and-a, gold-miners, delisted-placeholder, scheme-of-arrangement Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: Scheme-of-arrangement casualty. Gold Fields A$3.40 offer for ASX:GOR recommended 2025-05-05, targeted H2 2025 close. Absence of any 2026 news/filings/price signals the ticker is dead. Untradeable placeholder until ASX:GOR listing status is explicitly re-verified; base case is permanent watchlist removal. Invalidation trigger: Any entry invalid by default: no price data in packet + no 2026 filings = presumed delisted. Operational invalidation if revived: ASX:GOR weekly close below A$3.00, or AUD gold weekly close below A$3,600/oz, or Gruyere AISC print >A$1,900/oz. --- ### GGLL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GGLL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-07-01 Thesis: 2X daily-reset wrapper on Alphabet's accelerating Gemini/Cloud narrative (Q1 Cloud +63%, $460B backlog), but GOOGL is -11% off its 2026-05-13 $402 ATH on the surprise $80B dilution raise a knife on a leveraged instrument, ~-22% on GGLL. Wait for GOOGL to reclaim the 50-DMA (~$375) before paying 2X beta; not a clean entry now. Invalidation trigger: GOOGL weekly close below $340 (under Berkshire''s $348–352 placement shelf) 2X decay accelerates, abandon long. Also invalidating: GOOGL ranges $350–380 for 3+ weeks (leverage decay bleeds GGLL even with GOOGL flat). --- ### GOOG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GOOG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] AI mag7 MATURING, no dossier, edge +9.3pp barely above floor mega-cap dilutes alpha on $5k book Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### GTX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Turbo cash-cow repositioning turbomachinery IP into data-center/industrial oil-free cooling (Ingersoll Rand + Trane deals). But the Q1 binary already fired 2026-04-30 (beat + raised guide), popping RSI to ~85 and triggering clustered sell-side PT raises mid-May. We'd be chasing a MATURING, late narrative post-catalyst a buyback/value compounder in an AI costume, not the accelerating fat-pitch this book wants. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$24 20-EMA (Deutsche Bank PT / Q1 breakout base); or FY26 sales guide cut below the $3.6B floor; or no industrial-cooling revenue traction on the ~late-July Q2 print. --- ### HELE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HELE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Post-earnings turnaround pop that''s already mature: HELE ran to a 52-wk high $36.58 on the 2026-04-23 Q4 beat but trades ~40-50% above sell-side PTs ($23-25) with RSI 77.7. Catalyst spent, theme MATURING, no fresh accelerating leg to buy. Dormant/watch, not a momentum long. Invalidation trigger: Flip dormant→actionable on weekly close above 52-wk high $36.58 on >1.5x avg volume with consumer-discretionary theme re-accelerating. For any long: weekly close below 20-EMA or loss of $30 support. --- ### HIBL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HIBL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: 3X daily-reset leveraged ETF on the S&P-500 High-Beta basket a leveraged proxy on the AI risk-on melt-up, not a stock. Regime bullish (S&P record 7,609, GS target 8,000) but entry at $128.89 is parabolic: +96% YTD, +38.6% in 30d, RSI 73, +83% above 200-day, at a 52w high. Chase, not setup wait for the 20-day pullback (~$108). Invalidation trigger: HIBL daily close below its 20-day SMA (~$108), OR VIX sustained above 25, OR S&P 500 weekly close below its 20-week EMA any one flips the risk-on regime, and a 3X high-beta ETF is the wrong vehicle to hold through volatility decay. --- ### HIMX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HIMX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] AI-chip missed runner consistent with prior 4 WATCH calls: cluster already covered via TSM/ARM, no 52w-high break, theme MATURING correlated duplicate, no incremental edge. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### HIVE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HIVE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-07-02 Thesis: BTC-miner→AI-compute pivot: three analyst PT raises in one day (2026-06-03 — B. Riley $8 / HCW $7 / Rosenblatt $5.5) THROUGH a Q4 revenue miss, sell-side starting to price BUZZ HPC, "the growth engine the market is missing." Laggard catch-up in a MATURING neocloud theme LOW-conviction probe, not a fat pitch given decelerating top line. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the pre-earnings base that fills the 2026-06-03 analyst-raise gap (failed breakout), OR next monthly production update shows BUZZ HPC/AI revenue flat-to-down QoQ re-rating requires HPC scaling, not BTC mining. Also dead on a BTC weekly breakdown or a dilutive equity raise. --- ### HPK URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HPK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Oil-energy-geopolitical ACCEL but correlated duplicate of WTI with weaker structure (50<200-EMA fails); WTI is the cleaner expression of the same fresh catalyst. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### HPP URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HPP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] M&A activism theme MATURING (conf 0.62); Q1 FFO beat + FY26 guide raise but theme rolled over with no cluster confirmation single-name special-sit not narrative-momentum. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### HTZ URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HTZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-reopening-speculative Next catalyst: 2026-05-01 Thesis: CAR-sympathy squeeze setup has cooled into an earnings-binary window: Q1 2026 print ~2026-05-01 is now 5–7 trading days out, theme tagged MATURING, no fresh catalyst. Stay flat; this is a DEFER-into-blackout, not a fresh probe. Invalidation trigger: Q1 2026 print (~2026-05-01) delivers another ≥$100M fleet/EV depreciation charge OR daily close below the 2026-04-07 intraday low on >2× avg volume squeeze structure is dead, Pershing 13F delta (~2026-05-15) becomes an exit tell, not an entry. --- ### ICHR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ICHR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-04-24 Thesis: Semicap subsystem proxy on 2026 WFE re-acceleration; B. Riley PT $75 (2026-04-13) flags sell-side building conviction, but LRCX print 2026-04-24 is the read-through bomb and ICHR's own Q1 (~2026-05-07) is a hard binary. DORMANT until one of those tapes prints. Invalidation trigger: LRCX on 2026-04-24 cuts CY2026 WFE outlook OR guides Jun-quarter below Street kill thesis immediately. Also: ICHR Q1 revenue miss vs consensus OR Q2 guide below Street on ~2026-05-07 print. Technical: weekly close below 2026-04-13 upgrade-candle low on >1.5x avg volume. --- ### IHRT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IHRT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: M&A special-sit just broke: SiriusXM merger talks iced 2026-05-29 over a station-divestiture/antitrust impasse; the $6.56 deal-spec spike has fully round-tripped to ~$4.30. No accelerating narrative left 5.5x-levered radio name with Adj EBITDA -11.4% YoY. SKIP until talks demonstrably revive with terms. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 200-day SMA (~$3.62), or SiriusXM deal formally abandoned confirms the M&A catalyst is dead and opens the $2.30–2.75 analyst-forecast path. Cut, never average down. --- ### ILMN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ILMN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Genomics-monopoly turnaround that has already worked: ILMN ~doubled YTD on a clinical-sequencing inflection + NovaSeq X ramp + buybacks, now pinned at 52w highs ($175.73) trading ABOVE the $138 avg analyst PT. MATURING/recognition phase a fresh entry at the highs into the NIH-research overhang is a chase. Wait for a pullback to ~$150s support or the early-Aug Q2 confirmation. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$152 (breakout base / rising 50-day region) breaks the momentum structure; or Q2'26 (~early Aug) revenue <$1.07B or clinical consumables growth decelerating below 15% YoY. --- ### INDI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/INDI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Automotive ADAS-silicon design-win story improving $7.4B backlog, $25M 77GHz radar order, NIO vision ramp (Q1 print 2026-05-07). But Q1 rev only +3% YoY, deep $38.9M GAAP op loss, Q2 growth partly Wuxi-consolidation, and next catalyst (Q2) is 2026-08-06 dead 30-day window. Mid-range chop, probe only. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $4.15 (May-22 breakout shelf) or below 50-day MA (~$4.00); OR dilutive equity raise/convert announced; OR Q2 (2026-08-06) organic core revenue ex-Wuxi below ~$37M guide. --- ### IRDM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IRDM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: space-satellite Next catalyst: 2026-04-23 Thesis: Satellite-comms regulatory tailwind (FCC spectrum-sharing 7x capacity) + bullish $40 call sweep into Q1 earnings 2026-04-23 BMO. Binary print in 3 trading days = DEFER; fresh entry only on post-earnings reaction, not pre-print. Invalidation trigger: Q1 print 2026-04-23 misses revenue or cuts 2026 service-revenue guide; OR stock closes below $31 (pre-rally base) post-earnings; OR weekly close below 20-EMA (~$31.50). --- ### IRWD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IRWD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: rare-disease-approvals Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: Broken-chart specialty GI biotech Linzess royalty bleeding from Part D redesign, apraglutide SBS-IF PDUFA is the only narrative leg. Binary catalyst, not momentum. SKIP until fresh price structure or positive FDA signal re-fires the tape. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below recent swing low (~$2.00 area) OR Linzess royalty <$70M in Q1 print OR apraglutide label restricted to teduglutide-failure population OR PDUFA push >60d. Any one kills the thesis outright. --- ### JBLU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/JBLU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-reopening-speculative Next catalyst: 2026-04-29 Thesis: Distressed legacy carrier: CEO forced to publicly deny bankruptcy (2026-04-20 Bloomberg) while Spirit teeters and Duffy teases airline M&A. Binary Q1 print in ~1-2 weeks decides whether this becomes a Spirit-exit + takeout squeeze or a value-trap death spiral. No edge on a fresh entry ahead of the print. Invalidation trigger: Q1 2026 print (~late April) contains "going concern," covenant waiver, or revolver-draw language; OR cash + ST investments <$1.0B; OR weekly close makes new 52-week low post-earnings on expanding volume. Any one = thesis dead, SAVE headlines irrelevant. --- ### KALU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KALU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Aluminum tariff supply-shock + Q1 earnings inflection drove KALU +156% YoY to ATHs ($186 vs $194 high), but the clean leg ran Feb–Apr: earnings printed 4/22, sell-side already upgraded, price now ABOVE the highest PT ($183) with no catalyst for ~7wks. MATURING wait for a 20-EMA pullback or the ~late-July Q2 print, don''t chase $186. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$170 post-earnings consolidation floor (50-day region) = momentum leg broken; OR US Midwest premium falls back under ~$1,800/tonne on war de-escalation, collapsing the tariff/supply cost floor; OR Q2 guidance cut. --- ### KALV URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KALV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-10 Thesis: KALV is in a $27.00/share all-cash takeout by Chiesi (announced 2026-04-29); tender expires 2026-06-10, close expected Q3 2026. Stock pinned at $26.95 ~0.2% spread up vs ~40% deal-break downside. Narrative fully monetized into the deal; no momentum leg left. SKIP merger-arb, not momentum. Invalidation trigger: Deal-break: price closes below $25 (spread blowout) or Chiesi/regulators (HSR, Germany, Italy) terminate, or tender fails minimum condition by 2026-06-10 → standalone reverts to ~$15-16, 52-wk low $9.83. Upside reset only on a topping bid >$27.00. --- ### KFRC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KFRC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Staffing-cycle inflection: KFRC returned to YoY revenue growth Q1 (2026-04-27, EPS +18% beat, +17-20% pop) after a 2-yr decline, raised Q2 to ~$348M (+4% YoY), AI/data consulting pipeline +50%. Real recovery but low-beta income name, no peer cluster, next catalyst not until ~late-July Q2 print probe only. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$41 (fills the post-Q1 earnings gap; breakout failed), OR the ~late-July Q2 CY2026 print shows revenue back under $340M / YoY growth re-stalling toward flat. --- ### KODK URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KODK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-cyclical-rotation Next catalyst: 2026-05-08 Thesis: Dormant legacy shell with two live binaries: ~$530M KRIP pension reversion (H1 2026) and Rochester REE/pharma pivot. Q1 2026 print ~2026-05-08 is the window blackout kicks in ~2026-05-05. Narrative is NOT accelerating on KODK specifically despite commodity-materials theme flipping ACCELERATING 2026-04-21; peers (MP/USAR) absorbed the flows. Fresh entry is a probe only. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $5.40 on >3M shares (6-mo base break → $4.20), OR Q1 2026 print (~2026-05-08) with no pension-reversion timeline AND no named REE/pharma offtake, OR >5M ATM shares in 10-Q, OR KODK fails to reclaim $6.40 200-SMA while MP prints new highs (peer divergence = dead name). --- ### KOS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KOS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: Post-2026-04-08 ceasefire energy gap likely broke structure; ~2026-05-05 Q1 2026 print is the binary need GTA cargo count ≥2 and net debt down >$150M QoQ before any long. No pre-earnings edge on a 2.5–3x levered E&P. Invalidation trigger: Brent closes <$65 for 5 consecutive sessions, OR Q1 2026 production <65 kboepd, OR Q1 2026 GTA cargoes <2 any one kills the ramp/deleveraging thesis. --- ### LABU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LABU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: korea-asia-country-rotation Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: 3x leveraged biotech ETF (tracks XBI basket). Sector has been DORMANT for 3 years; setup requires XBI to break 50-day high on volume + dovish Fed + M&A acceleration off the patent-cliff. Without that ignition, LABU just bleeds from leverage decay. Probe-only vehicle, never a core hold. Invalidation trigger: LABU weekly close below 20-EMA, OR XBI breaks its trailing 50-day low, OR held flat >15 trading days (decay exit regardless of thesis), OR hawkish Fed re-price kills the biotech-duration trade. --- ### LIFE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LIFE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: AI-insurtech IPO (Ethos) Q1 rev +104% to $193M + raised FY guide drove the pop, but Bear Cave's 2026-05-21 report alleging aggressive upfront commission accounting put the narrative on trial. Battleground, not a clean trend; wait for price reclaim or Q2 (~Aug) validation. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$17.50 (2026-06-01 session low / post-Bear-Cave consolidation floor) = bears winning, avoid/exit. Also invalidated if Q2 FY2026 (~Aug) revenue misses the $114–118M guide or FY2026 guide is cut below $561M. --- ### LMND URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LMND/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: AI-native insurtech with accelerating fundamentals (loss ratio 62% vs 78% YoY, Adj-EBITDA+ guided Q4''26, Tesla FSD auto-insurance leg) but a BROKEN tape: beat-and-raise on 2026-04-29 was sold, price rolled -40% to ~$53 on the $50 H&S neckline. Fundamentals up, momentum is not. No-touch for a momentum book until it reclaims ~$60. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $50 (head-and-shoulders neckline / round-number shelf) opens $43 then 52-wk low $34.10. Conversely the long thesis only re-arms on a weekly close back above ~$60 (50-DMA zone) with the Tesla FSD narrative re-firing. --- ### LOVE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LOVE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits Next catalyst: 2026-04-28 Thesis: Post-earnings (2026-04-14) digestion still unresolved without price refresh. LOVE only matters as an a6 squeeze on a beat+raise tape against a graveyard furniture sub-sector, or as a deferred a5 pullback retest. Binary catalyst window already closed no edge until tape confirms gap hold + sector participation. DORMANT until then. Invalidation trigger: Day-10 close (≈2026-04-28) below pre-earnings (2026-04-13) close, OR weekly close below 20-EMA on expanding volume, OR peer XRT breaks its 50-DMA during digestion window, OR insider selling cluster in 10-K filing. --- ### LUNR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LUNR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Space basket beta with no dossier and SpaceX-IPO halo only RKLB stop-out frees no slot, no comparative edge Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### MARA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MARA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-07-03 Thesis: Bitcoin-miner-to-AI-pivot story, but the core is on fire: BTC crashed to $63.7K (June 4) and the 2026-06-02 Q1 was a double-miss (rev $174.6M -18%, -$1.3B net loss on a $1B BTC writedown). The Starwood 1GW→2.5GW AI/HPC leg is a promise, not a print. No accelerating narrative value-trap dressed as diversification. Invalidation trigger: MARA weekly close below $12.40 (May-15 swing low) OR BTC weekly close below $60K either confirms the diversification bounce failed and miner economics keep bleeding. Bullish re-arm needs BTC reclaiming >$72K weekly + MARA breaking $15.30. --- ### MEI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MEI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] RSI 88.7 extreme, no theme, no dossier, +107pp vs SPX on first sighting no cluster context, no fundamental tether; classic late-stage blowoff trap. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### METU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/METU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: METU is 2x-leveraged META. Q1 beat (rev $56.3B, +33% YoY, EPS $7.31) but the $125–145B capex raise gapped META ~6% on 2026-04-29; now basing/recovering toward ~$615. Narrative intact but MATURING and in digestion the wrong tape for a 2x daily-reset ETF that bleeds in chop. Probe only until META reclaims trend; no META-specific catalyst until Q2 on 2026-07-29. Invalidation trigger: META weekly close below $560 (post-capex selloff floor / ~20-week EMA), or METU close below $20.50 (heading toward 52wk low $18.62). Hard mechanical exit if META stays range-bound in a <8% band for 3+ weeks the 2x daily reset decays in sideways tape regardless of direction. --- ### MNMD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MNMD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-25 Thesis: ⚠️ MNMD no longer trades rebranded to Definium (DFTX) on 2026-01-15; MM120→DT120. Pure binary-catalyst psychedelic name: EMERGE (LSD in MDD) Phase 3 topline lands ~late Q2 2026, ~3 weeks out. Stock +20% into the print at ~$25 a coin-flip readout under the Lykos-rejection shadow, NOT a momentum setup. Invalidation trigger: EMERGE Phase 3 (DT120/LSD in MDD) misses primary MADRS endpoint vs placebo (p>0.05) at the late-Q2-2026 topline, OR daily close below $19 (pre-run base) on no data event. Either ends the long. --- ### MOD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MOD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-05-19 Thesis: [Stage 1 DEFER] Strong 6-rule industrial-power-AI name (RSI 60, top momentum) but Q4 FY26 prints TODAY 2026-05-26 after close deep in earnings blackout, binary risk forbids fresh entry. Invalidation trigger: revisit after 2026-05-26 Q4 print clears with DC growth >50% YoY and no FY27 guide-cut; buy the post-print higher-low --- ### MOH URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MOH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Managed-care trough-year rotation: MOH reset FY26 adj-EPS to ≥$5.00 (Feb -28%), then Q1 beat at $2.35 / MCR 91.1% and reaffirmed (late Apr, +9–17%) first sign Medicaid cost trend is stabilizing. But stock is +58% off the $121 low and stalling ~$191; the relief leg is MATURING with no fresh catalyst until the Q2 print (~late July). Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $170 (gives back the post-Q1 relief gap), OR Q2 2026 Medicaid MCR re-expands >93.5% / FY26 adj-EPS guide cut below $5.00 any of these signals the cost trend is re-accelerating and the trough thesis is broken. --- ### MRAM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MRAM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] small-cap-ai ACCEL but mid-parabolic digestion of a +131%/30d runner, rule 3 broken, no dossier; W20/W21 postmortems explicitly flagged this archetype as a chase trap. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### MRVI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MRVI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-04 Thesis: Post-COVID turnaround re-rating: MRVI ($1.99 low) is at a fresh 52-wk high $5.16 after the Q1 beat (rev $65.8M vs $52.9M est, +41% YoY) + FY26 guide raise + the 2026-06-02/03 refi that cut debt $243M→$150M and killed the balance-sheet bear case. Idiosyncratic, not theme-driven chasing a stretched breakout post-news, so probe only. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $4.20 (failed breakout back into prior base); or Q2 2026 print (~early Aug) shows base-business organic growth <8% or any cut to the $205–215M FY26 revenue guide. --- ### MSFT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MSFT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-mag7-software-platforms Thesis: [Stage 1 DEFER] Earnings tonight 4/29 AMC inside earnings blackout; theme MATURING (AI Mag-7 platforms); RSI 74 extended on momentum-only setup with empty dossier. Invalidation trigger: Revisit after 4/29 AMC print Azure growth re-acceleration ≥35% + capex guide held = clean re-entry on first higher-low --- ### MXL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MXL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-04-28 Thesis: Second-derivative recovery: broadband CPE trough + AsterionX 800G optical DSP optionality into AI backplanes. Binary on Q1 FY26 print (~2026-04-28). Pre-earnings, within 3-day blackout window no fresh entry. Invalidation trigger: Q1 FY26 revenue <$100M OR Q2 guide <$110M OR daily close <$12 post-print. Any named MRVL/CRDO hyperscaler 1.6T socket win zeroes the optical optionality. --- ### NBR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NBR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Pure high-beta oil-war-premium proxy: +90% YTD on the US/Israel-Iran war (Brent ~$100) + Q1 beat + sell-side PT hikes to $115-120. But at ~$100 near its 52-wk high ($105.80) it''s MATURING/late the war premium is mainstream and fully priced, and one ceasefire headline mean-reverts it 30%+. Missed the clean entry; not a fresh fat-pitch here. Probe-only. Invalidation trigger: WTI weekly close below $80, OR any verified US-Iran ceasefire/de-escalation headline (war premium unwinds, NBR gives back 30%+ as pure oil-beta), OR daily close below ~$85 (prior breakout / ≈20-EMA). --- ### NEXA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NEXA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: commodity-materials-rare-earths Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: Rare limit-up halt +9.30% on 2026-04-15 after Citi PT raise to $12.50 (2026-04-14) flipped NEXA from high-cost zinc laggard to Aripuanã-ramp + copper-optionality play. Binary Q1 production report due ~2026-04-28 to 2026-05-02 is the only confirm; no size until the print lands above guidance midpoint. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the 2026-04-15 pre-halt reference (~$10.30) on volume >ADV, OR LME zinc 3M closes below $2,800/t for 3 consecutive sessions, OR Q1 2026 production miss vs guidance midpoint. --- ### NKE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NKE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: Beaten-down legacy brand at 52-wk lows (~$43.38, -25% in 3mo); the May rate-relief bounce FAILED into a lower low. Elliott Hill turnaround is unproven and price structure is broken a falling knife into the binary 2026-06-30 Q4 print. No accelerating narrative, no clean setup, no momentum leg to buy right now. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 52-week low $41.35 confirms continuation lower. Turnaround thesis dead if 2026-06-30 Q4 print shows revenue down YoY + further gross-margin contraction. No long until a post-earnings higher-low that reclaims the ~$52 20-week EMA. --- ### NOK URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NOK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Stocktwits +367% spike but no registry theme membership, no dossier, no comparative edge vs cluster-confirmed names pure retail-velocity signal. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### NRGU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NRGU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-11 Thesis: Oil-geopolitical risk-premium narrative cooled from ACCELERATING (5/19) to MATURING (5/21). NRGU is a 3x DAILY-leveraged big-oil ETN that bleeds in chop. No confirmed fresh accelerating leg, no live oil tape LOW-conviction probe only; needs a sustained WTI breakout + big-oil cluster confirmation to re-arm. Invalidation trigger: NRGU weekly close below its rising 20-EMA, OR WTI loses the mid-May breakout low, OR oil goes range-bound >2 weeks (3x daily-reset decay regime), OR theme flips SATURATED any one ends the trade. Never average down. --- ### NVCR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NVCR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: Beaten-down TTFields oncology-device name (~$12, just above 52-wk low $9.82) that round-tripped its Feb Optune Pax approval; the ONLY near-term re-rate is the binary Phase 3 TRIDENT GBM overall-survival readout due by end of Q2 2026. Pre-binary lottery ticket on broken price structure, not an accelerating-momentum setup wait for the print. Invalidation trigger: TRIDENT Phase 3 misses its OS primary endpoint on the Q2 2026 readout, OR a weekly close below the 52-wk low of $9.82 before the print. --- ### NVDL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NVDL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] 2x leveraged NVDA correlated duplicate; if the synthesis approves NVDA exposure, take it via NVDA/TSM not levered ETF in NEUTRAL regime. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### NWPX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NWPX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Water-infra + precast roll-up legacy-pivot; +190% over 52wks on record Q1 backlog ($373M WTS) and a ~90% EPS beat (Apr 29). But MATURING at 52w highs, ~20% above the $99 analyst-PT cluster, next catalyst (Q2) ~7 weeks out. Fresh entry at $119 is a chase; wait for a pullback to MA support. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$100 (round support / analyst-PT cluster, est. 20-week EMA), OR Q2 2026 WTS backlog prints below the $373M Q1 record order momentum has rolled over. --- ### OILU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OILU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: 3x leveraged E&P ETN a tactical/catalyst vehicle, not a hold. No live oil catalyst, no price confirmation, and theme is MATURING (2026-05-20), so it's a decaying instrument with no trend to ride. Probe only on a confirmed crude breakout + OPEC/geopolitical catalyst; otherwise daily-reset decay bleeds you. Invalidation trigger: WTI front-month closes below its 50-DMA, or OILU weekly close below 20-EMA; or an OPEC+ output-hike surprise that snaps crude >3% intraday 3x daily-reset decay then compounds against the position. --- ### OLPX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OLPX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-reopening-speculative Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: Broken-IPO turnaround with zero narrative acceleration 4 straight YoY-decline quarters, TikTok brand damage persisting, K18/private-label stealing shelf. New CEO Baldwin 2 years in, no inflection printed. DORMANT until Q1 2026 (~2026-05-05) breaks the revenue-decline streak. Invalidation trigger: Q1 2026 earnings (~2026-05-05) prints another YoY revenue decline OR guide-cut; OR weekly close below prior multi-month basing low pre-earnings. Either = thesis terminal, move from DORMANT to DEAD and remove from watchlist. --- ### OMER URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OMER/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Both binary catalysts already fired: Novo Nordisk $2.1B zaltenibart deal (closed 2025-12-01, $240M cash) and FDA approval of YARTEMLEA for TA-TMA (2025-12-23). Now a launch-ramp story one quarter in (Q1 net sales $9.9M). Stock $10.74, -39% off the $17.65 high, consolidating NOT accelerating. Probe only, ahead of the EMA decision (mid-2026) and Q2 ramp proof. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $8.50 (post-approval consolidation floor); OR Q2 2026 YARTEMLEA net sales ≤ $9.9M (flat/down vs Q1 base) = launch ramp stalled; OR EMA issues a negative opinion on the TA-TMA MAA. --- ### ONDS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ONDS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Drone-dominance policy trade ACCELERATING (Pentagon push + Trump equity-stake rumor 2026-05-28); ONDS riding it on $110M Q2 bookings (2026-06-01) + World View Navy ISR win (2026-06-02). But it's the most-diluted retail vehicle in the basket and registered a 2.11M-share resale 2026-06-03 probe only, not a hold. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA or a daily close back below the 2026-05-27 pre-surge base; OR any new dilutive registration/ATM beyond the 2026-06-03 2.11M-share resale; OR the Trump drone equity-stake story explicitly denied/shelved. --- ### OPEN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OPEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-26 Thesis: Russell 3000 index-inclusion flow (effective 2026-06-26) plus CEO Nejatian's warrant short-trap are squeezing the tape into a known date, but it's a fully-telegraphed flow event on a deteriorating iBuyer (Q1 rev -38% YoY, Q2 guide a ~20% miss). Trade the flow, fade the news. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $4.50 (pre-Russell base); OR a >8% fade in the 3 sessions after the 2026-06-26 inclusion date. --- ### ORKA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ORKA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-05-12 Thesis: Pre-revenue long-acting psoriasis biologic story with 6 sell-side upgrades in 9 days (Apr 6–15 2026) and zero corroborating filings textbook pre-offering setup, not a clean narrative leg. Wait for either an S-3 print (thesis kill) or a Phase 2b catalyst date to surface. Invalidation trigger: Any S-3 shelf or 424B pricing filing appears on EDGAR. Secondary: Guggenheim or Wedbush cuts PT below $60, or daily close breaks below the pre-Apr-6 consolidation base. --- ### OSCR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OSCR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 DEFER] Health-managed-care MATURING; Q1 cleared with only Equal-Weight/Neutral PT bumps (Barclays $21, Baird $19, Wolfe PP) defensive rotation not narrative momentum Invalidation trigger: Revisit if theme returns to ACCELERATING with ≥2 tier-1 Buy initiations within 14d --- ### OXM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OXM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits Thesis: Beaten-down premium resort-wear holdco (Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer) in a multi-quarter declining-comp tape. "Consumer-reopening" theme is 4+ years stale; narrative velocity is zero. Classic value-trap silhouette cheap multiple plus rolled-over chart. Default stance is DORMANT; only engage on a post-print trend-reversal with positive Tommy Bahama comp + raised guide (~2026-06-05 est.). Invalidation trigger: No long entry unless weekly close reclaims 40-week MA on ≥1.5x avg volume AND Q1 FY26 print (~2026-06-05 est.) delivers positive Tommy Bahama DTC comp with raised full-year guide. --- ### PANW URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PANW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Megacap cyber leader printed a clean Q3 beat (rev +31%, NGS ARR +60% to $8.13B, 2026-06-02) but SOLD the news -6% off the $300 ATH while ~20 sell-side desks raised PTs the same day (2026-06-03) textbook late-stage, sell-side-caught-up tape. Narrative intact; entry here is chasing a blow-off (RSI 86). Wait for a reset. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$265 (post-earnings shelf / rising 50-DMA zone) OR weekly close below 20-EMA; OR next-print NGS ARR growth guide <50% YoY vs current 59–60%. --- ### PAYS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PAYS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-reopening-speculative Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Eligible on paper (rank 6/3824, +61pp vs SPX 20d, RSI 62, WSB velocity +250%, short interest 32.8%) but the dossier is unambiguous: this is a micro-cap binary ~15 calendar days from the 2026-05-07 Q1 print that must quantify the Medicare Part D $2K OOP cap impact on the copay-card segment. Theme tag is MATURING (late stage), volume is only 0.60x (rule 4 failed — no institutional confirmation), and setup is not within 10% of 52w high (rule 3 failed). Historical Q4 2023 gapped -21% on a single guidance miss; chasing stretched retail/squeeze energy into a binary disclosure event where the Street still has no Part-D-reality baseline is textbook beginner-trap asymmetry. Dossier explicitly flags 'watch-only unless post-earnings cleanup gap + clean base forms' honor it. Invalidation trigger: Earnings within 15 calendar days on a micro-cap with historical 15-25% binary gaps; re-evaluate only on post-2026-05-07 cleanup gap with volume expansion (>1.5x ADV) and a clean higher-low base above 20-EMA. --- ### PBI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PBI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Activist turnaround (Hestia''s Kurt Wolf now CEO) has largely PLAYED OUT: ~3x off the $8.95 low to a 52-wk high $17.09 on buybacks (17.2M sh/$186M YTD), cost cuts and debt paydown. Q1 (reported May 5) raised FY26 guide but revenue still -3% YoY. MATURING, pinned at the highs above Street PTs a financial-engineering re-rate, not an accelerating narrative. Not the playbook''s pitch at $16.68. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $14.50 (post-Q1 breakout base); or FY26 adj-EPS guide cut below $1.50; or quarterly buyback pace falls below ~$50M (turnaround fuel exhausting). --- ### PCT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PCT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] small-cap-ai ACCEL but rule 3 broken (50<200), RSI 78 parabolic, negative velocity, no dossier; correlated chase-dup of held WEST deferred 4x. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### PENG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PENG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] small-cap-ai tag but special-sit M&A thesis 18mo stale (SKT convertible), Barclays cut to Equal-Weight; RSI 83 parabolic momentum without a fresh narrative driver. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### PII URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PII/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Powersports turnaround inflecting Indian Motorcycle sold to Carolwood (closed 2026-02-02), Q1 (2026-04-27) printed first positive adj EPS (+$0.13 vs −$0.90) on +423bps gross margin. But the recovery leg ($52→$64) has mostly played; MATURING, GAAP-loss/−$342M FCF value-trap shape, no fresh catalyst until the 2026-07-28 Q2 print ~8wks out. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $55 (50-DMA / breakout-retest fails), OR the 2026-07-28 Q2 print cuts FY26 adj-EPS guide below the $1.60 floor, OR off-road retail turns negative YoY (Q1 2026 was +3% ex-youth). --- ### PLPC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PLPC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Grid + AI-datacenter power buildout ACCELERATING; PLPC a real 2nd-order beneficiary but the stock front-ran it $387.69 (2026-06-04), fresh ATH $391.40 THROUGH old 52w high $371.80, on a Q1 revenue MISS + Freedom Broker downgrade. Breakout is real momentum but a fresh long is a late chase, no catalyst until ~Jul 28. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below $355 (failed breakout below old 52w-high $371.80), or weekly close below 20-EMA (~$340); or Q2 (~2026-07-28) net sales <$176M confirming top-line stall. --- ### PLUG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PLUG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: Hydrogen-comeback + margin-turnaround squeeze already ran +475% off the $0.69 low to ~$3.57; the Q1 beat (2026-05-11) is behind us and price sits at the $3.75 Susquehanna PT. Fresh entry now chases peak-retail on a serial diluter only forward edge is the June-30 $142M Stream Data Centers asset-sale close. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the $3.12 Q1-earnings gap (2026-05-11 pre-print close) breaks the squeeze leg; or the Stream Data Centers $142M Project Gateway sale fails to close by 2026-06-30. --- ### PNRG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PNRG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Former ultra-low-float Permian E&P squeeze rolling over $181 on 2026-06-04, down ~20% from March $227; Q1 (5/20) net income halved to $4.3M with NEGATIVE realized Permian gas (-$0.40/Mcf). No AI here (theme tag is a misclassification). Dead-tape value trap, not a momentum long. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$170 (under Q1-reaction low and rising 200-day) on sub-15k volume confirms dead squeeze + Permian gas-glut value trap stay out. Re-validate as a probe only on a 50-day reclaim (~$205) with a >50k-share volume spike. --- ### PSNL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PSNL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: MRD/liquid-biopsy narrative accelerating: 4 Medicare wins (May 13/19) + best-in-class ASCO data (May 29-Jun 2) drove a +70% 2-week vertical. But those catalysts already fired Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $8.00 (gives back >50% of the ASCO breakout, loses the 20-EMA); or FY2026 revenue guide cut below $78M; or MRD revenue tracking under the $20-21M FY target on the Q2 print. --- ### PTEN URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PTEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Natural-gas rig-reactivation thesis: LNG ramp + AI data-center power demand should pull gas-directed drilling higher in 2H26, with PTEN''s 100% gas-powered frac fleets + capital returns as leverage. But it''s a slow-burn cyclical Q1 was a $25M loss, oil rigs still falling, stock ~$12 within 7% of its 52wk high. We''re coincident with sell-side PT raises, not ahead. MATURING, not accelerating. Probe only. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $10.50 (loses recovery base / ~50-day MA); OR US gas rig count fails to inflect up by Q2 call (~2026-07-22) while WTI sustains <$55 and oil rig count breaks <400 kills the reactivation thesis. --- ### PVH URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PVH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits Next catalyst: 2026-04-24 Thesis: DORMANT / avoid-long into Q1 FY26 print. LVMH 2026-04-13 miss (€19.12B vs €19.49B est) plus "fall off a cliff Q2" sell-side piece put mid-tier apparel in the crosshairs. No PVH-specific catalyst within 30d; binary is the late-May/early-June Q1 print. Narrative is decelerating watch-only. Invalidation trigger: Break of $70 prior support on volume without a market-wide selloff = structural, hard pass. OR peer (RL/TPR/Macy's) guides down N.A. wholesale >5% before PVH prints. OR PVH pre-announces guide cut à la June 2024 (−22% in a day). --- ### PYPL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PYPL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Narrative still broken post-2026-05-05 Q1 (Q2 transaction-margin dollars guided to DECLINE); price stuck below 50/200-day in a death-cross. The 2026-05-29 "beaten-down bounceback" media chatter is bottom-fishing, not a momentum leg. No-touch value trap for a momentum book. Invalidation trigger: Avoid-thesis flips only on a weekly close above $47 resistance AND reclaim of the 50-day MA (~$46) with a higher-low; absent that, every bounce is a value-trap fade. Break of $39 post-print low confirms further downside. --- ### QRVO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QRVO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Merger-arb (SWKS buying $32.50 + 0.96sh), upside capped at deal value, downside binary on deal-break; the 52w-high/RSI signals are SWKS artifacts outside the momentum edge. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### QUIK URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QUIK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-29 Thesis: eFPGA/defense-chiplet IP-royalty narrative accelerating (record $168M funnel, four Intel 18A wins, RadPro rad-hard silicon); 2026-06-29 Russell 2000/3000 inclusion is the near-term passive-bid catalyst but it's a low-float microcap squeeze, +391% off lows at 52-wk highs after a Q1 revenue MISS. Probe, not fat pitch. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $18 (loses post-earnings recovery base), OR fails to hold >$19 the week after 2026-06-29 Russell inclusion (sell-the-news), OR Q2-2026 revenue below the ~$5.0M sequential baseline. --- ### QURE URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QURE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-18 Thesis: FDA-regime-change relief rally: Makary''s 2026-05-12 ouster revived hope the FDA reverses its March rejection of AMT-130''s accelerated path; +47% in 30d (to ~$30) into the 2026-06-18 AMT-260 epilepsy readout. Speculative recovery into binary catalysts the primary Huntington''s path is still officially a multi-year Phase III. Probe-only. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below $22 (pre-Makary-news base); OR AMT-260 2026-06-18/19 cohort data shows seizure reduction well below the n=1 92% signal / a serious AE; OR Q2 Type B FDA minutes hard-confirm a full randomized sham-controlled Phase III with no accelerated path. --- ### RAMP URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RAMP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: RAMP signed an all-cash takeout by Publicis at $38.50/share (announced 2026-05-17, 29.8% premium). Stock gapped to the cap and now trades as a merger-arb stub no narrative leg, upside hard-capped, closes by end-2026. The "momentum score soars" headline is a deal pop, not acceleration. SKIP dead money for a momentum book. Invalidation trigger: Upside is hard-capped at the $38.50 cash deal price any approach to it = no momentum trade exists. A close below ~$35 signals rising deal-break risk (downside gap toward the ~$29.66 pre-deal level). Engine: treat as no-trade while it pins the $36–$38.50 arb band. --- ### RAPP URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RAPP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-04-21 Thesis: RAP-219 Phase 2a FOS data (77.8% median seizure reduction, Dec 2025) pulled Phase 3 forward to Q2 2026 and drove a 5× rally to $39.71; AAN 8-wk follow-up podium on 2026-04-21 is a binary inside 24h, and current price is 6% below 52-wk high stretched into the print. Narrative ACCELERATING, but entry setup is a coin flip not a trend entry. Invalidation trigger: AAN 2026-04-21 8-wk follow-up shows durability fade (seizure reduction median <65% or any new SAE/hepatic signal), OR weekly close below 20-EMA (~$32-34), OR 8-K discloses RAP-219 clinical hold in any indication (correlation=1 across platform). --- ### RDW URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RDW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Q1 miss + $350M dilutive offering announced 5/6 broke the thesis; sliding tape since, no dossier narrative-broken, track for new setup not entry. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### RLAY URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RLAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Binary-catalyst precision oncology setup into ASCO 2026 abstract titles (2026-05-23) and Q1 print (~2026-05-07). Split sell-side ($18 Jones Hold vs. $21 Barclays OW) = undecided market; RLY-2608 PI3Kα breast cancer data is the only thing that moves this. Event trade, not a trend. DORMANT until price confirms. Invalidation trigger: Q1 2026 print (~2026-05-07) cash <$550M (runway compression), OR Scorpion STX-478 prints ORR ≥35% at AACR before RLY-2608 data, OR weekly close below $14 with no data catalyst inside 60 days, OR XBI loses 200DMA. --- ### RLMD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RLMD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, cns-depression, binary-readout-microcap Next catalyst: 2026-05-15 Thesis: Post-blowup CNS microcap in dead zone no dated Phase 2b Sepranolone or RELIGHT readout inside 30 days. Only near-term event is the ~2026-05-15 Q1 10-Q, which is an ATM/runway reveal, not a thesis-igniter. DORMANT: watchlist only, no entry trigger armed. Invalidation trigger: Any 8-K between now and 2026-05-22 announcing (a) ATM/shelf takedown or secondary, or (b) cash runway <12 months on the Q1 10-Q, or (c) Sepranolone Tourette Phase 2b primary-endpoint miss → hard skip / exit any exposure. Also: weekly close below post-blowup base low on >2x avg volume. --- ### RLYB URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RLYB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Reverse-merger special situation, NOT a momentum trade. RLYB shell popped +19% to $17.25 on 2026-06-01 Avenzo oncology merger + $215M PIPE (combined co. = AVZO, closes Q4 2026). Legacy holders get cash distribution + CVR + thin 2.8% stub; the deal pop is the whole move. SKIP no accelerating narrative leg accrues to us. Invalidation trigger: SKIP stands; not a momentum setup. Re-engage only if merger TERMINATES (reverts to cash-shell) OR RLYB drops back below net-cash distribution value (~$37.5M net cash) creating a clean discount-to-cash arb. The +19.3% pop to $17.25 on 2026-06-01 was the entire event. --- ### RMAX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RMAX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: M&A pop is over. Real Brokerage's all-but-stock takeover (announced 4/27, $13.80 headline) is now worth only ~$9.3 blended because acquirer REAX fell to $1.66. RMAX trades at parity ($9.08) with ~34% downside on a break a thin arb on a beaten-down stock, not a momentum leg. SKIP. Invalidation trigger: Deal termination or shareholder-vote failure → RMAX reverts toward pre-deal ~$6 (-34%). Also: REAX weekly close below $1.40 drags blended consideration under ~$8.30 (RMAX follows 1:1). Spread thesis dead either way. --- ### ROM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ROM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-24 Thesis: Leveraged 2x AI/tech beta in a parabolic, accelerating tape ROM +42% in a month, +110% 1yr, broke ATH $171 on 06/03. Narrative is real (Vera Rubin in production, Dell +88% YoY) but price is blowoff-extended ~15% above MA and reversed -3.5% on 06/04. Ride if already long; chasing a fresh entry here in a 2x decay vehicle is a LOW-conviction probe only. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$155 (back under late-May breakout shelf + rising 20-EMA), OR a 2nd down-day close below $158 confirming the 06/04 failed breakout, OR NVDA+MU+AVGO all lose 50-DMA same week. On a 2x daily-reset ETF exit the broken structure immediately decay compounds drawdown. --- ### RPAY URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RPAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits Next catalyst: 2026-04-28 Thesis: Two-activist special sit: Forager $4.80 non-binding cash bid (2026-04-17) + Veradace open letter (2026-04-09) pressing RPAY to abandon KUBRA deal and sell. Poison pill adopted 2026-04-14. Binary arb setup topped bid to $5.25+ vs deal-break round-trip to $3.40. Already gapped; wait for board response or pullback. Invalidation trigger: Forager withdraws proposal (any "no longer pursuing" press release) OR stock closes two consecutive sessions below $4.15 on volume OR board closes KUBRA acquisition on current terms without activist concessions. --- ### RPI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RPI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: unresolved-ticker, archive-candidate Thesis: Ticker "RPI" does not resolve to a live US-listed equity as of 2026-04-20 legacy Roper Industries symbol (now ROP) and no viable successor. Zero price, news, filings. Not tradable; archive unless the intended ticker is reconfirmed. Invalidation trigger: the operator note a different intended ticker (e.g. RPD, ROP, RPAY), OR a live US quote for "RPI" with >$50M ADV appears on a US exchange within 7 calendar days of 2026-04-20. Absent either, archive DORMANT. --- ### RUM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RUM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-15 Thesis: AI-neocloud pivot accelerating: $270M Blackwell B300 GPU contract (2026-06-04, largest ever) + Northern Data''s 22,400 GPUs closing mid-June + hyperscaler-compete cloud launch. But tape just printed +26%→+5.5% spike-and-fade near 52w highs story real, entry poor. Probe only. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $8.00 (loses the 2026-06-04 deal-day base — the deal pop fully round-trips); OR Northern Data acquisition fails to close by 2026-06-30; OR the mid-June Rumble Cloud launch slips with no new customer. --- ### RXO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RXO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: Asset-light freight broker sitting at the intersection of (a) late-stage freight recession inflection and (b) consolidation/activist chatter post-Coyote integration; Q1 print (~2026-05-06) is the binary either gross margin expansion confirms the cycle turn or it stays a value trap. Invalidation trigger: Q1 2026 brokerage gross margin <13.5% AND weekly close below 20-EMA confirms the \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\"cycle has turned\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\" narrative is broken. Alternative trigger: Knight-Swift/Werner/Schneider explicitly deny interest in brokerage M&A on earnings calls. --- ### S URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/S/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: SentinelOne busted post Q1 FY2027 stock cratered 2026-05-28 on an affirm-not-raise guide ($1.195-1.205B rev vs $1.206B est) plus 8% layoffs/$25M charge; analyst wall split $15-$24 with no direction. Broken momentum, not an accelerating leg. No long until it re-bases; cyber leadership belongs to CRWD. Invalidation trigger: No long until a weekly close reclaims the pre-earnings gap ~$18 with a higher low above ~$13. Any contrarian probe stops on daily close below the post-earnings low ~$13. Skip becomes a no-touch if $13 breaks. --- ### SABR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SABR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Beaten-down legacy GDS re-rating off the $0.81 low on a deleveraging turnaround SabreMosaic AI airline-retailing is the optionality. Constructive base above stacked MAs but no acceleration trigger yet probe-tier, not a fat pitch. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below 50-day MA ($1.65) breaks the stacked-MA uptrend off the $0.81 base (hard out below $1.40); or next print (~Aug 6) shows Adjusted EBITDA margin contraction or an FY2026 guidance cut. --- ### SANM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SANM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] EMS chip-adjacent post-Q2 beat, RSI 83 parabolic, no dossier cluster covered by larger names Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### SATL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SATL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Space-satellite ACCEL but no dossier, $12M Greek contract isolated headline RKLB carries the cluster Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### SEZL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SEZL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] fintech, rule 3 broken (below 52w high), crypto-financials theme MATURING, no current theme membership/dossier no cluster confirm, retail-velocity only. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### SG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Sentiment bounce above a value trap no accelerating leg to buy now. Watch-only. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $8.00 (round-trips the JPM-upgrade gap into the $4.50–$9.00 street-target cluster), OR Q2 comps on 2026-08-06 worse than Q1's −12.8%. --- ### SGMT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SGMT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: empty dossier and ANAB outpacing means Stage 2 must decide hold vs trim vs rotation. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### SHOO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SHOO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Tariff-recovery ("worst is behind us") narrative is PLAYED OUT, not accelerating: SHOO round-tripped $22→$44 and now sits ON the $43.88 consensus PT. Q1 +18% rev is Kurt Geiger M&A; organic DTC only +8% and adjusted EPS FELL to $0.45 from $0.60. Mature legacy pivot, no fresh catalyst for 60+ days. Invalidation trigger: If long: weekly close below 20-EMA (~$40) or loss of $39 shelf; OR Q2 (~Aug 2026) cut to the $2.00–$2.10 adjusted-EPS guide; OR organic ex-Kurt-Geiger DTC turning negative. --- ### SIDU URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SIDU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: SpaceX-IPO proxy mania drove SIDU vertical into late May; mgmt cashed the hype with a $100M direct offering at $5.08 (2026-05-28) textbook distribution top-tick. Retail-squeeze name on $359K quarterly revenue. No fresh-entry edge; dilution overhang + peak sentiment. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the $5.08 (2026-05-28) offering price = direct-offering buyers underwater and distribution confirmed; equally, SpaceX-IPO proxy bid fading or the space-satellite theme flipping SATURATED ends any long. --- ### SITM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SITM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] MEMS-timing picks-and-shovels Stifel $500 PT; RSI 76.6 extended, top 0.3% momentum but cluster covered by GFS/ARM PRIORITIZE picks Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### SIVEF URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SIVEF/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: unresolved-ticker, otc-foreign-ordinary, serenity-seed, research-blocked Thesis: No tradeable narrative. SIVEF remains an unresolved F-suffix OTC ticker from 2026-04-18 Serenity seed issuer still not mapped to a US-tradable equity after one week. Research-blocked; do not size. Invalidation trigger: Any sized entry before issuer name + home-exchange symbol + 30-day ADV are resolved. Trigger re-evaluation only when OTC Markets issuer page or SEC Form F/6-K filing confirms company identity. --- ### SKM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SKM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: korea-ceasefire-etf, ai-telco-pivot, korea-re-rating Next catalyst: 2026-05-09 Thesis: Korea-ceasefire re-rating + AI-telco (Anthropic-backed "A." assistant) narrative in play, but SKM is a 0.4-beta dividend telecom wrong vehicle for narrative-momentum book. EWY is the cleaner expression. Watchlist only; Q1 print ~2026-05-09 is the binary data point. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-EMA on volume, OR Korean MSIT announces telecom price caps, OR KRW/USD breaches 1,500, OR Q1 2026 print (~2026-05-09) misses revenue/shows AI-services non-material. --- ### SLNO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SLNO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: rare-disease-approvals Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: Pure merger-arb, narrative-dead. NBIX $53.00 cash deal announced 2026-04-06; 5 sell-side desks collapsed PTs to exactly $53 within 8 trading days. Sub-1% spread vs -35% break tail wrong archetype for narrative-momentum book. Skip unless SLNO prints <$51 on no news. Invalidation trigger: SLNO prints <$51.00 intraday on no news (implies >15% break priced in) OR any 8-K referencing FTC second request, HSR extension, or MAC clause from NBIX. Above $52.50 = no tradeable edge. --- ### SLS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SLS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] biotech-precision MATURING (rule 10 fails), RSI 73 + retail-distribution blowoff pattern, no named clinical catalyst deferred 3x consistently; track for a milestone or theme re-accel. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### SMCI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SMCI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: May margin-recovery rip (+68%) off the Q3 FY26 beat is rolling over two distribution days, price back at the 50-DMA (~$47.5), Mizuho PT $44 below spot, first leveraged SMCI ETF launched 6/1 = late-stage retail saturation. Faded picks-and-shovels leg, not a fresh setup; next binary is the Aug 11 print. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the 200-DMA (~$42.75) = May parabola fully unwound, no long bias. Any probe is dead on a close back under the 50-DMA ($47.5) post-entry. Re-arm only on a reclaim above $52 with the AI-infra peer cluster (NVDA/DELL/HPE) breaking out together. --- ### SMMT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SMMT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-05-14 Thesis: New position, not held. Rules 1/2/4/5/6 fire on momentum (rank 35/3824, +45pp vs SPX 20d, 1.76x vol, RSI 70.8, StockTwits +193% 3d/14d) and theme is ACCELERATING, but dossier discipline is explicit: archetype-5 single-asset binary on ivonescimab with pre-defined trigger of weekly close >$35 on 2x volume coinciding with ~2026-05-14 ASCO abstract drop not a chase at $24 with RSI already 70.8 and news flow 12 days stale. Q1 earnings print early-May creates a blackout window directly ahead. Wait for ASCO-abstract leak ~05-14 with confirming breakout, or a clean higher-low pullback to rising 20-EMA with volume expansion. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $18 (2025 HARMONi-miss low) OR HARMONi-2 enrollment pause/hold 8-K OR S-3 secondary >$250M OR Merck MK-5684 Phase 3 interim PFS HR <0.60 any triggers 6+ month cooldown, no re-look. --- ### SNAP URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SNAP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 DEFER] CFO exit + 16% layoffs + analyst PT dispersion $5.25-$15 = restructuring story, not narrative-momentum; theme MATURING off-playbook regardless of momentum rank Invalidation trigger: revisit only if SNAP joins an ACCELERATING theme post-May Q1 print AND analyst PT cluster compresses upward --- ### SNEX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SNEX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: crypto-financials-exchange Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: StoneX is a quiet legacy FCM/brokerage compounder with thin digital-asset optionality; no accelerating narrative right now and bearish 2026-04-16 "stocks to dump" mention. DORMANT no fresh entry thesis into ~2026-05-07 fiscal-Q2 print. Invalidation trigger: Fiscal Q2 2026 operating revenue decelerates below +10% YoY (breaks the compounder tape), or weekly close below the 40-week moving average. Either kills even the "boring long" rationale. --- ### SOXL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SOXL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] 3x leveraged semi ETF, decay risk on parabolic leg, chip exposure already covered via held NVDA/TSM redundant beta. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### SPIR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SPIR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] space-satellite ACCEL but only 4 rules, no dossier, weakest space expression; PL carries the cluster probe. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### STAA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/STAA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-18 Thesis: Post-Alcon-break special situation: shareholders killed the $30.75 takeout (Jan 6 2026); Broadwood (31%) now on the board pushing a standalone ~$50 path. China ICL recovery is real (Q1 rev +120%, EPS $0.29 vs $0.08e) but the tape already faded from $35.87 to ~$29. June 18 standstill expiry/annual meeting is the live event catalyst an event-binary, not a clean momentum leg. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$26 (rising 200-day / post-Q1 consolidation floor); OR June 18 annual meeting passes with no renewed sale-process/strategic-review and STAA loses $28 support activist/M&A premium gone; OR Q2 (~early Aug) China revenue declines sequentially with trade receivables rising (destocking redux). --- ### STM URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/STM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-04-24 Thesis: Cyclical semi laggard 4 trading days from Q1 2026 binary (2026-04-24). Mizuho Outperform/PT $48 upgrade 2026-04-17 marks sell-side capitulation end, but entering pre-print is gambling, not edge. DEFER until post-earnings tape confirms auto book-to-bill >1.0 and FY26 guide holds $14B+. Invalidation trigger: Q1 2026 revenue <$3.15B OR FY26 guide cut below $14B on 2026-04-24 print, OR weekly close below $28 post-earnings, OR Infineon/onsemi pre-announces SiC ASP cut >15% before 2026-04-24. --- ### STX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/STX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-04-29 Thesis: [Stage 1 DEFER] Q3 FY26 earnings ~4/29 (1 trading day), RSI 78.2 extreme, sell-side now chasing ($582→$595→$605 in 14d) = late-cycle distribution setup; dossier mandates DEFER through print. Invalidation trigger: Revisit post-print 4/29 gap-fill hold above prior breakout shelf with nearline guide ≥QoQ flat --- ### SXC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SXC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Coal-policy sympathy squeeze: SXC ripped ~+70% off lows to a 52-wk high on Trump''s 2026-06-03 $700M coal push, but RSI ~80 and that funding hits an Oakland terminal + thermal plants, not SXC''s met-coke core. Extended +34% over the 50-EMA, retail-flagged, no company catalyst until ~2026-08-04 probe on a 20-EMA pullback, don''t chase the blowoff. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 20-EMA (~$7.90), or a daily close back under the ~$8.00 breakout shelf; coal-policy headline fades with no SXC-specific export-terminal volume. --- ### SYNA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SYNA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] RSI 77 parabolic chip cluster name, no synthesis, negative velocity correlated dup of cluster picks already prioritized. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### TBLA URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TBLA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-26 Thesis: Legacy open-web ad network repricing as an agentic-AI ad platform (Realize+ + Claude Skills, launched 2026-04-23) on a Q1 beat-and-raise (2026-05-07). But only ~6% revenue growth and a ~$77M one-time legal windfall flatter the print. Near-term edge is the mechanical Russell 2000/3000 inclusion buy on 2026-06-26, not narrative velocity. MATURING, not accelerating. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $4.20 (fills the post-Q1 earnings gap, breaks the May base); or Russell inclusion passes 2026-06-26 with the week closing below $4.40 (no passive follow-through, the only edge spent). --- ### TBRG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TBRG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Closed all-cash merger, not a momentum trade: IKS Health buying TBRG at $26.25 cash (signed 2026-04-23), stock pinned ~$25.85 = ~1.5% gross spread to an expected Q3 2026 close, ~27% of shares locked to vote yes. Narrative leg already realized into a fixed price dead money for a momentum book. SKIP. Invalidation trigger: Deal-break: price slips below ~$24 (market pricing rising break-odds), spread blows past ~5%, IKS withdrawal / failed vote / HSR second-request / MAC. Any break gaps TBRG toward ~$16 standalone (pre-rumor 2026-04-02 level). --- ### TER URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TER/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semicap-equipment, ai-chip-infra-memory, hbm-test-intensity Next catalyst: 2026-04-23 Thesis: Semicap-test pure-play with clustered analyst PT raises ($400–$415) into a binary Q1 print window ~2026-04-22 to 2026-04-24. DORMANT in the 72h earnings blackout; post-print reaction bar decides if this goes ACTIVE long or gets skipped on a guide-in-line fade. Invalidation trigger: Earnings print drops stock below $340 intraday OR FY guide held at/under prior $3.20B consensus OR Advantest announces HBM4 socket win at Micron/SK Hynix within 30d. --- ### TH URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-cyclical-rotation Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Small-cap workforce-housing re-rate setup: two Street PT hikes in 72h (Stifel $15 2026-04-06, Oppenheimer $18 2026-04-09) front-running a contract-award or Q1 beat. Binary catalyst ~2026-05-07 Q1 print + any 8-K contract headline is the trade. DORMANT until price/filing confirms. Invalidation trigger: Q1 2026 call (~2026-05-07) management signals "no visibility on replacement contracts" OR weekly close below $8.00 on >2x avg volume. Either kills the re-rate thesis. --- ### TLRY URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TLRY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-29 Thesis: Cannabis Schedule-III reform trade back on into the 2026-06-29 DEA adult-use rescheduling hearing; sector re-accelerating but TLRY chart is busted ~$5.12, below 200d, near 52-wk low after round-tripping $23→$5. Binary-catalyst LOW probe, not a momentum entry. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $4.50 (loss of pre-hearing base), OR the 2026-06-29→07-15 DEA hearing concludes with no adult-use Schedule III recommendation / punt to litigation (sell-the-news). --- ### TNGX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TNGX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-04-25 Thesis: Binary PRMT5i catalyst: TNG462 AACR 2026 poster drops between Apr 25–30 (abstracts Apr 21–23), repricing the stock ±30–60% in one session. No tape confirmation, no pre-data accumulation signal validated stays DORMANT/LOW until structure or abstract text gives an edge. Invalidation trigger: AACR 2026 TNG462 poster prints ORR <20% at n≥20 in MTAP-null NSCLC, OR Amgen AMG 193 update at same meeting shows ORR ≥30% with cleaner Gr3+ AE profile, OR Q1 2026 10-Q (~May 11–15) discloses runway <5 quarters / ATM activation / S-3 shelf refresh. --- ### TOI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TOI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Value-based oncology turnaround inflecting to first-ever profitability: Q1''26 revenue +41% YoY, Florida capitation turned profit, FY26 adj-EBITDA guide raised to $0–9M. Stock tripled off $2.02 low; today''s +12.4% squeezes an 11% short float into 52w highs. Real narrative but a +12% pop on no news into resistance with no 30-day catalyst is a chase. Probe only, prefer a retest. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $4.00 (failed breakout, gap filled, trend broken) or Q2'26 print (~Aug) cuts FY26 adj-EBITDA guidance below $0 breakeven / capitation revenue declines QoQ, killing the profitability-inflection leg. --- ### TORO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TORO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Cash-rich Panagiotidis shipping shell (NOT lawnmower-maker TTC) already ran 1.93→8.50 (~4.4x) on special-dividend/discount-to-NAV closing; now ~$5.22, −39% from high, trading ABOVE liquidation value. $0.90 special div already went ex. Momentum SATURATED aftermath, not a fresh leg. SKIP/DORMANT. Invalidation trigger: No long here. Any probe invalidates on daily close below $4.50 (loss of post-dividend base) → only support beneath is the ~$3.19/sh cash-NAV floor. --- ### TQQQ URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TQQQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Themes: leveraged-etf-mania Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] 3x leveraged Nasdaq ETF; rule 10 fails on attention flat + chip cluster covered by direct names; decay risk Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### TRVI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TRVI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: rare-disease-approvals Next catalyst: 2026-05-08 Thesis: Post-offering digestion at $13.00 anchor ahead of mid-2026 Phase 2b RIVER topline (chronic cough in IPF). Dilution overhang priced in but no clean base yet DORMANT pending 3 closes above $13.50 on fading volume. Archetype-5 binary, sizing stays small when triggered. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $12.00 (8% under the $13.00 offering anchor) = deal broken, demote to DEAD. Earlier exit on any 8-K disclosing RIVER enrollment delay, protocol amendment, or SAE cluster. --- ### TSLL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSLL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-07-02 Thesis: TSLA robotaxi/autonomy narrative had its ACCELERATING leg in May (+14% to a May-11 peak), then stalled when fleet expansion froze (May 10) and SpaceX-IPO dilution fears hit (-6.5% into June). TSLL is the 2x proxy, but in this chop daily-reset decay bleeds you no clean re-accel yet, RSI ~41, price pinned at the 50/200-DMA cluster (~$418). Invalidation trigger: TSLA weekly close below 200-DMA (~$408, ≈ TSLL low-$13s); OR robotaxi expansion stays frozen past FSD v15 launch; OR a dilutive SpaceX merger is confirmed. Any one breaks the leveraged-long leg exit, never average a 2x ETF down. --- ### TSLR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSLR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-07-02 Thesis: TSLR is a 2x daily-reset leverage wrapper on TSLA trading the robotaxi/autonomy narrative with a 2x amplifier plus a decay tax. TSLA (~$419, 2026-06-03) rallied through May on robotaxi + SpaceX-IPO buzz but stalled at $450; RSI ~53 neutral. Narrative MATURING not accelerating, and a 2x ETF bleeds in this chop. Conviction LOW on fresh entry; wait for a $450 breakout-hold or the ~Jul-2 Q2 delivery print. Invalidation trigger: TSLA weekly close below $400 (loses May-rally base / ~20-wk EMA), or a 3rd rejection at $450 with roll under the 50-DMA. For a 2x ETF, 2+ weeks of range-bound TSLA chop alone bleeds the position via decay exit even if directionally right. --- ### TVTX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TVTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: FILSPARI FSGS approval fired 2026-04-14 with 6 same-day PT hikes ($44–$56); T+8 sessions into post-binary drift window. DORMANT until either a weekly close above 2026-04-14 gap-high on >1.5x volume (breakout entry) OR Q1 print (~2026-05-06→05-13) resolves launch-prep binary. No price context this refresh do not enter blind. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below 2026-04-13 pre-halt close (full gap-fill) within 15 sessions of 2026-04-14 approval = approval round-tripped, thesis dead. Secondary: Q1 print (~2026-05-06 to 2026-05-13) with pulled/vague 2026 guide or cash-burn spike without commercial-readiness detail. --- ### TXG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TXG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: Legacy single-cell franchise pivoting to spatial biology with 2026-04-20 Atera launch + clustered sell-side PT raises ($24→$30→$32). Narrative is nascent, not accelerating; price structure still multi-year downtrend. Probe only on confirmed weekly reclaim of 50-week MA. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $15 (post-Atera launch support) OR Q1 2026 revenue guide below $150M (implies spatial adoption stalling) OR Atera instrument placements <50 in first 60 days per next call. --- ### UCTT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UCTT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semicap-equipment, hbm-memory-capex, wfe-cycle Next catalyst: 2026-04-29 Thesis: Second-order semicap play on LRCX/AMAT WFE spend (~70% customer concentration). Thesis is structurally intact (HBM capex, Products GM recovery) but tactically locked out LRCX prints 2026-04-23 AMC and UCTT prints ~2026-04-29, both inside the earnings blackout. DEFER until post-print reaction confirms. Invalidation trigger: Any of: (a) LRCX guides April-Q revenue down >5% vs consensus on 2026-04-23 call, (b) UCTT Q1 Products GM prints <17%, (c) UCTT loses 200-day MA on >2x average volume post-earnings, (d) UCTT fails to follow a LRCX guide-up by >5% within 3 sessions (correlation break). --- ### UMC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UMC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-10 Thesis: Legacy #3 mature-node foundry grinding to a 52-wk high (2026-05-27) on the Intel 12nm Arizona JV (2027 prod) + first-ever 14nm FinFET display-driver platform (2026-05-14). Real pivot, but a slow low-beta ADR catalyst is years out and near-term there''s only the monthly revenue print. Probe, not a fat-pitch. Invalidation trigger: Monthly revenue YoY growth rolls under +5% (April was +10.8%, reported 2026-05-08), OR weekly close back below the late-May 52-week-high breakout (~$8 ADR, est.), OR Intel 12nm JV 2027 timeline officially slips. --- ### UNHG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UNHG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: 2x daily-reset leveraged proxy on UnitedHealth's managed-care margin recovery. UNH +~50% off 2025 crash lows to $377 (2026-06-03), but the easy leg is spent avg analyst PT $404 sits at spot, Berkshire fully exited May-2026, DOJ probe overhangs, stock stalling. MATURING not accelerating; UNHG's 2x daily decay punishes holding chop. Invalidation trigger: UNH weekly close below $345 (recovery-leg break); or Q2 print 2026-07-28 shows MCR back above 89% / FY adj-EPS guide cut below $18.25; or DOJ files formal charges. On UNHG the 2x daily decay also bleeds the wrapper in any multi-week UNH stall. --- ### UNIT URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UNIT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Post-Windstream merger fiber REIT with 47% analyst PT spread (RBC $7.50 vs Barclays $11, both mid-April 2026). Archetype-5 binary: Q1 2026 print ~May 6–9 is the only thing that matters. DORMANT until that tape resolves deleveraging pace and enterprise fiber mix. No pre-print entry. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $6.80 (breaches RBC $7.50 floor by ~10%) OR Q1 2026 print shows enterprise fiber revenue flat/negative YoY OR management pulls/lowers 2026 synergy target on the earnings call. --- ### USD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/USD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-25 Thesis: 2x-leveraged semis basket on the AI-chip buildout: fundamentals ripping (WW semi rev +79% YoY, AVGO AI +143% in the June-3 print) but the tape is digesting AVGO''s "beat-but-no-FY27-guide-raise" sell-the-news while SOXX sits overbought. Real strength, but a 2x decay-prone vehicle into digestion = LOW probe, not a fat pitch; want a 20-EMA reclaim first. Invalidation trigger: USD daily close below ~$98 (pre-AVGO-print breakout shelf / rising 20-EMA), or SOXX weekly close under its 20-EMA. In a 2x daily-reset vehicle the decay compounds the trend break --- ### USO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/USO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-10 Thesis: the most likely near-term catalyst DEFLATES the premium. Chasing a fresh long into peak headlines here is a beginner trap; no edge long. Invalidation trigger: US–Iran 4-stage deal/MOU signed (lifts oil-export restrictions → Iranian barrels return, premium deflates); or USO weekly close back below its 20-EMA / pre-conflict base. Either kills the long. --- ### VECO URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VECO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Picks-and-shovels semicap into AI capex: Q1 (2026-05-05) double-missed but stock gapped +21% on a >$250M multi-customer order book + affirmed FY26 sales guide above consensus. Recovery-not-acceleration story; the +21% pop is ~a month stale with no catalyst until the ~Aug Q2 print a pullback-buy, not a chase here. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the 2026-05-06 earnings-gap base (the +21% move filled), OR FY26 sales guide cut below the $740M floor / order momentum stalls (no follow-on bookings >$100M before the ~Aug Q2 print). --- ### VIAV URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VIAV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] T&M laggard sleeve already +25% post-Q3 beat with 4 PT raises; archive shows 5+ consecutive DEFER sessions, GLW/COHR carry the optical cluster cleanly. Consistency is edge. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### VICR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VICR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] industrial-power-AI fundamentals accelerate (backlog $301M) but pivot-top sell signal 5/11 + 192 insider sells / 0 buys; broken price structure track for a $300 reclaim, don''t catch the knife. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### VIR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VIR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: rare-disease-approvals, t-cell-engagers, biotech-binary-catalyst, oncology-tce-platforms Next catalyst: 2026-04-25 Thesis: Post-COVID biotech pivot VIR-5500 Phase 1 (PSMA dual-masked TCE) first patient dosed 2026-04-13; AACR 2026-04-25→30 posters and Q1 2026 earnings (~early May) are the next binary inflections. DORMANT until first-cohort safety disclosure or cash-runway update breaks the 2-year downtrend on volume. Binary-catalyst archetype do not front-run FIH safety data. Invalidation trigger: 8-K discloses VIR-5500 Grade ≥3 CRS, DLT, or trial hold; OR Q1 2026 call guides cash runway <18 months; OR JANX prints clean Phase 1 PSMA safety before VIR PRO-XTEN differentiation thesis dies. --- ### VMI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VMI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Industrial-power-AI #2 secondary to VRT in same theme; RSI 74.9 extended, vol only 0.60x, no built dossier; only relevant on relative-strength signal vs VRT. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### VPG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VPG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] analog-components 3rd cluster confirmer, 5 rules, +102.5pp vs SPX; RSI 84.7 parabolic + no dossier ranks it behind QCOM/SIMO LOW probe, not benched (accelerating cluster name). Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### VSH URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VSH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] Mis-tagged: dossier explicitly says zero AI/HBM exposure, analog auto-cycle name, archetype-5 binary cleared without conviction not a narrative-momentum trade. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### WDC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WDC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-04-29 Thesis: Pure-play HDD picks-and-shovels leg of AI data-infra; sell-side drift up (Citi $405, MS $380) into fiscal Q3 print ~2026-04-29/05-01. Stock is in the Hormuz-rally cohort so materially extended the print + MSFT/META/AMZN capex guides in the same 72h window are a stacked binary, not a trend-continuation setup. Invalidation trigger: Q3 revenue <$4.5B OR nearline exabyte guide-down QoQ OR any hyperscaler (MSFT/META/AMZN/GOOGL) FY26 capex cut on 2026-04-30/05-01 calls OR weekly close below $300 on above-avg volume OR Citi/MS PT cut below $340. --- ### WLAC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WLAC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: WLAC de-SPAC''d into Boost Run (NASDAQ: BRUN), an NVIDIA-certified GPU neocloud that doubled in 30 days on $940M contracted revenue, a $1.44B Dell deal (4/22) and a $471.7M Thinking Machines contract. Narrative ACCELERATING, but entry is parabolic: ~$35 on 6/4, +101% MoM, just under the 6/1 ATH of $40.98 on a thin de-SPAC float. Probe only; buy the pullback, not the ATH. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $26 (first higher-low / rising 20-EMA of the de-SPAC run); or loss/renegotiation of the Dell $1.44B or Thinking Machines $471.7M contracts; or warrant/lockup distribution breaking the uptrend. --- ### XMTR URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/XMTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a0 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: [Stage 1 WATCH] small-cap-ai ACCEL but RSI 83 parabolic (most extended in cluster), no dossier, correlated dup; consistent with 4 prior WATCH calls. Invalidation trigger: revisit on next decision_window --- ### XRX URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/XRX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: Activist-catalyzed distressed turnaround: STARTEEPO Invest lifted its stake to >6% (3rd-largest holder, 13D/A 2026-06-01) on a Lexmark-synergy + deleveraging bet. Stock +193% off the $1.19 low to ~$3.49 but it''s a 7x-levered net-loss special-sit trading ABOVE the $2.75 analyst PT, not a momentum fat-pitch. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $2.50 (gives back post-Q1/activist breakout base); OR Q2 ~July print shows gross leverage still ≥7x EBITDA with no FCF inflection; OR STARTEEPO files a reduced stake / Lexmark synergy guide cut below $300M cumulative. --- ### XSD URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/XSD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-24 Thesis: Memory super-cycle + rally broadening beyond mega-caps is XSD''s leg: modified-equal-weight tilts to MaxLinear/Astera/Navitas/Marvell, not NVDA. But fresh entry at the 52-wk high ($640) into SMH weekly RSI>80 (all-time, 5th since 2012) = chasing record-overbought, most-crowded-trade tape. Micron Jun-24 print is the binary. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 20-wk EMA (~$560 est.); or Micron FQ3 (Jun-24) revenue <$32.75B or a soft FQ4 DRAM/HBM price guide signaling memory ASPs rolling over; or SMH weekly RSI breaking back under 70 from >80 (momentum failure). --- ### XTLB URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/XTLB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-22 Thesis: Not a momentum setup a binary Nasdaq delisting/shell rescue. XTLB ($5.6M cap, $2.23, at 52-wk low) is a public shell on a conditional listing exception; must close the Psyga Bio reverse-merger + $1.5M raise and regain full compliance by 2026-06-30 or delist to OTC. June 22 EGM vote is the first domino. Lottery-probe only. Invalidation trigger: EGM vote fails 2026-06-22, OR Psyga deal not closed by 2026-06-29 / Nasdaq compliance not affirmed by 2026-06-30 (ADSs delist to OTC), OR weekly close below 52-wk low $2.12. --- ### XXI URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/XXI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: Bitcoin-treasury proxy thesis is BROKEN: mNAV collapsed to ~0.68x diluted XXI trades BELOW its own BTC NAV, killing the accretive equity flywheel. BTC dumping ~13%/week, stock pinned at all-time low $5.61. Falling knife in a SATURATED/DEAD DAT theme avoid, not a setup. Invalidation trigger: Avoid stays valid while mNAV diluted <1.0x and price below 20-EMA. Weekly close below $5.61 all-time low = confirmed next leg down. --- ### YAAS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/YAAS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Thesis: April AI-partnership squeeze (+56% to $1.77 on 2026-04-27 YATOP deal) has fully roundtripped; now a sub-$1 China SaaS nano-cap ($0.94, 2026-06-04) at 52-wk lows with a 11.1M-share resale overhang (~49% of float) and live Nasdaq delisting risk. DEAD, not a setup. Invalidation trigger: AVOID flips to a 1% probe ONLY on a weekly close back above $1.77 (2026-04-27 squeeze high) on >1M daily volume plus a funded revenue catalyst. Otherwise confirmed dead below $0.75 (52-wk low) into Nasdaq sub-$1 delisting. --- ## Journal entries · latest first ### 2026-06-05 — Friday, June 5, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-06-05/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative read, and the tape backs it. VIX sits at 16.06 (calm), breadth is healthy with 61.8% of names (605/979) above their 200-EMA, and the SPX closed 756.97 a full +11.6% over its 200-EMA at 678.51. This is a trending, broad-participation market, not a narrow melt-up: more than three in five stocks are in primary uptrends, and there's no volatility bid signaling fear. Under the hood the macro plumbing is benign-to-supportive. The curve is positively sloped (10Y-2Y at +0.42%), high-yield credit spreads are tight at 2.75%, and the front end is anchored by Fed Funds at 3.63%. The one yellow flag worth tracking: rates drifted higher on the week 2Y +10bps, 10Y… --- ### 2026-03-11 — Wednesday, March 11, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-03-11/ Regime: STAGFLATION_FEAR_ESCALATING STAGFLATION_FEAR_ESCALATING CPI came in benign (Feb: +0.3% MoM, +2.4% YoY, core +0.2%/+2.5%) and the market initially rallied. Then it reversed hard as oil surged on fresh Hormuz escalation: 3 commercial vessels attacked off Iran's coast Wednesday, Iran military threatening $200/bbl. Brent closed $91.98 (+4.76%), WTI $87.25 (+4.55%). IEA announced historic 400 million barrel strategic reserve release the largest ever and the market shrugged it off entirely. Physical supply destruction now clearly exceeding reserve capacity. SPY flat to -0.4%, Dow -406pts (-0.9%). Energy only winning sector: XLE +1.6%, DVN +3.1%. Premarket universe (19:20 UTC): 416 tickers → 159 passed Stage A → 154 Stage B… --- ### 2026-03-10 — Tuesday, March 10, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-03-10/ Regime: STAGFLATION_FEAR_BINARY STAGFLATION_FEAR_BINARY a day the market won't forget. Brent crude swung from $119.50 intraday highs to $87.80 (-11.3%) after Trump threatened Iran "20x harder" if Hormuz blocked. NOT a ceasefire war rhetoric intensified but the geopolitical noise created a binary pivot point. Regime upgraded from RISK-OFF to STAGFLATION_FEAR_BINARY given the outsized intraday move and CPI tomorrow. Premarket universe: 127 tickers → 125 passed Stage A/B (regime flagged RISK-OFF) Midday scan: 170 tickers → 164 passed all stages. Funnel efficiency 39.5% (best of week) Pipeline cost: $9.02 (heaviest day — expanded universe with narrative refresh) Final decisions: 164 EVALUATE no BUY signals. System in… --- ### 2026-03-09 — Monday, March 9, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-03-09/ Regime: RISK-OFF RISK-OFF (detected at premarket scan 08:14 UTC). Prior regime (Mar 6): CHOPPY_STAGFLATION_FEAR driven by Brent $89-90, NFP -92K miss, and Hormuz shutdown. Universe: 418 tickers scanned → 106 passed Stage A (liquidity/spread) Stage B top picks by score: IOVA (85.8), IWM (83.4), LQD (83.0), PFE (82.8), AMZN (80.7) Final decisions: 106 tickers flagged EVALUATE all in exploration mode. No BUY signals generated. Midday scan (15:01 UTC): 0 BUY decisions. Regime held RISK-OFF. Execution: No trades placed. Pipeline remained in evaluate/monitor mode. Stage B exploration mode: budget $20 remaining / 444 analysis slots unused system is in pure observation posture Top liquidity candidates remain… --- ## Methodology summary Stage A: liquidity screen. Stage B: momentum + narrative scoring. Stage C: frontier-LLM strategic-grade assessment. Stage D: portfolio composition (not published). Stage E: postmortem-driven adaptive optimiser. Eight archetypes drive sizing discipline: a1 Compounder, a2 Cyclical recovery, a3 Theme leader, a4 Special situation, a5 Earnings inflection, a6 Retail squeeze, a7 Defensive, a8 Macro hedge. Conviction levels: SUPREME, HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW. Each carries an explicit invalidation trigger that strips the conviction if breached. Full methodology: https://orbyd.app/methodology/ ## License + citation Content © orbyd. Available for research and reference; attribute on republication. Educational under the BaFin and EU framework; not investment advice.