{
  "name": "orbyd research calibration record",
  "description": "A dated, falsifiable record of orbyd's equity theses: each ships a published invalidation trigger and resolves in public as played-out or invalidated. Strictly non-monetary.",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/track-record/",
  "generated": "2026-06-05T13:53:57.597Z",
  "last_content_update": "2026-06-05",
  "methodology": {
    "forecast": "Each conviction tier is a probabilistic claim, published in advance, that the thesis plays out.",
    "conviction_prob": {
      "SUPREME": 0.9,
      "HIGH": 0.75,
      "MEDIUM": 0.6,
      "LOW": 0.5
    },
    "scoring": "Brier score with the Murphy reliability/resolution/uncertainty decomposition; Brier skill score vs the base-rate forecast.",
    "outcomes": [
      "played_out",
      "invalidated",
      "open"
    ]
  },
  "withheld": [
    "returns",
    "pnl",
    "positions",
    "share_counts",
    "portfolio_value",
    "weights",
    "entry_prices",
    "exit_prices",
    "stops",
    "targets"
  ],
  "open_commitments": [
    {
      "ticker": "INTC",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/INTC/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 4,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Daily close below $102.50 support (2026-06-02 level) confirms NVIDIA-PC-threat distribution top; or Q2 call shows PC CPU share loss to ARM. Bull thesis stays invalid absent a named external 18A foundry customer.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-04-27"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "HOOD",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HOOD/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 1,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below 20-EMA; OR CLARITY Act stalls/dies in committee (Novogratz cut passage odds 90%→60% Jun 1), repricing the crypto take-rate leg; OR Q2 print shows event-contract take-rate compression from Kalshi/Wintermute competition.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "IQE",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IQE/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 4,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below the 19.8p strategic-raise price (MACOM + institutional cost basis) on >1.5x avg volume = re-rate failed; OR FY2026 >20% revenue-growth guide cut in any trading update; OR Photonics revenue down half-on-half at H1 2026 interims (~Sept 2026).",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AVGO",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AVGO/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 2,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below the post-earnings reaction low AND below the 20-EMA (sell-the-news becomes a de-rate); OR FY27 AI guide cut below $100B; OR confirmed Google/Meta TPU-generation share loss to MRVL.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-04-30"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "META",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/META/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 1,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below 20-EMA on rising volume; OR Q2 ad rev <+15% YoY (vs Q4 +21%); OR Business Agent/Hatch show no paying-customer traction by Q2 print (~2026-07-29); OR AVGO/custom-silicon theme rolls over hard into SATURATED.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-04-30"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "MSTR",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MSTR/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 6,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Avoid-stance flips ONLY on all three: (1) weekly 8-K showing net BTC ACCUMULATION with zero sell-language, (2) BTC weekly close back above $84K, (3) MSTR weekly close above its 20-EMA. Until then every bounce is a falling-knife trap; no long, no averaging in.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-04"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "PLTR",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PLTR/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 1,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Failure to reclaim the 200-DMA within ~2-3 weeks plus a daily close below the early-June profit-taking swing low on >1.5x avg volume; OR DIA ruling formally excludes PLTR from the contract bid; OR Q2 US commercial decel <45% YoY (~Aug).",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-05"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AXTI",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AXTI/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 2,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Daily close below $90 (loses rising 20-EMA/base) = pullback became distribution, abort. Or Q2 (7/29) revenue under the $34M guide, or InP backlog shrinks QoQ from the $100M record.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-06"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "CRCL",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRCL/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 7,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below $77 on above-average volume (Compass Point magnet reclaimed); OR Mastercard/Nium prove logo-only with no USDC settlement-volume traction by the Q2'26 print; OR Fed accelerates cuts, crushing the ~80% reserve-yield base.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-06"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "CEG",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CEG/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 3,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below $240 (200-DMA + post-Calpine gap fill), OR FERC denies the Amazon/Susquehanna co-location ISA amendment (docket ER24-2172), OR 2026 adj-EPS guide cut below the reaffirmed $11 floor.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-06"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "LITE",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LITE/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 2,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Daily close back below ~$840 forfeits the 2026-06-01 $866.97 signal-bar reclaim; OR weekly close under the 20-EMA; OR a peer optical name (COHR/MRVL/AAOI) losing its 50-day while LITE diverges down any one flips momentum to broken, exit.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-07"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "VST",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VST/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 3,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below $132 (May-2026 swing low) on >1.3x avg vol; OR failure to reclaim the 50-DMA (~$165) by end-July while the AI-power complex (CEG/TLN/NRG) rolls over; OR a hyperscaler Q2 capex guide-cut that re-rates the whole group lower.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-07"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "COIN",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/COIN/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 1,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Long re-arms ONLY on BTC reclaim of ~$68K AND COIN weekly close above $185 (back over Piper $180 anchor + 20-EMA), ideally with 3+ days net-positive ETF flows. BTC losing $60K opens $55K → harder no-touch. Do not enter into the knife; do not buy oversold RSI alone.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-07"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "SMR",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SMR/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 5,
      "invalidation_trigger": "SK $200B-package talks close with no named NuScale allocation, or weekly close below $10 with a failed 20-EMA reclaim. RoPower FID slip past 2026-12-31 = DEAD. Engage only on a confirmed SK capital figure or a binding offtake ≥$100/MWh for ≥250 MWe.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-07"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AAOI",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AAOI/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 2,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below the 20-week EMA on rising volume (trend kill on a +400% YTD parabola), OR photonics ETF (EUV) breaks below its launch base, OR a $600M ATM takedown disclosure followed by giving back the prior month's range on volume.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-08"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "TSEM",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSEM/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 2,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close back below the ~$255 May-13 earnings-gap base (failed post-beat breakout — verify exact 20-EMA before sizing), OR any Q2 guide walk-back / RF-SOI inventory-reset commentary from QCOM/AVGO. Either kills the acceleration thesis.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-12"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AEHR",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AEHR/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 2,
      "invalidation_trigger": "retry on next decision_window",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "ASTS",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ASTS/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 6,
      "invalidation_trigger": "retry on next decision_window",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "CRWV",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRWV/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 1,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below the ~$104 post-Q1 low = base failed, opens DA Davidson $100 → Bernstein $67 air pocket. Or the new $850M data-center junk bond prices wider than the 9.75% notes (credit refusing the recovery), or a second cohort guide-down.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "OKLO",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OKLO/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 3,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Any further insider Form 4 sale or ATM/S-3/424B filing within 2 weeks of the 2026-06-03 $13.6M disclosure; or weekly close below the 2026-05-18 post-Q1 digestion low; or DOE plutonium negotiations (opened 5/26) lapsing.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "QBTS",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QBTS/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 6,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Daily close back below the ~$20 May-20 pre-announcement base = government-bet gap filled and failed. OR a new ATM/shelf take-down 8-K beyond the $100M Commerce issuance. OR QTUM ETF rolls over + the quantum cohort prints lower lows together (theme→DEAD).",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "RGTI",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RGTI/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 6,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close back below the 2026-05-22 breakout pivot, OR any ATM-issuance 8-K filed during strength (historic basket top-tell), OR QBTS closing below its 20-EMA (basket leader rolls first).",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-13"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "ASML",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ASML/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 2,
      "invalidation_trigger": "retry on next decision_window",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-14"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "NBIS",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NBIS/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 1,
      "invalidation_trigger": "retry on next decision_window",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-14"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "NNE",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NNE/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 1,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Daily close below ~$24 (loses the post-5/20 NRC base; closed $26.24 on 6/03), OR any 424B/8-K disclosure that the $400M ATM is selling into rallies either confirms catalysts are priced and dilution is absorbing the move.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-05-14"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "PL",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PL/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 7,
      "invalidation_trigger": "OR daily close below $42 (loses $42.48 breakout shelf); OR SpaceX ~6/12 debut prints sell-the-news and the cluster (RKLB/ASTS) rolls over.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-06-04"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "QUBT",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QUBT/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 6,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Flip to interest ONLY on a weekly close back above the ~$13-14 200-DMA on a QUBT-specific catalyst (TFLN customer 8-K or direct federal award, or rule_7 options confirmation). Hard SKIP on any 424B5/S-3 ATM filing, or if the QNT IPO drains the sector bid and QUBT loses the ~$10 shelf.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-06-05"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "SHLS",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SHLS/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 3,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Daily close below the rising 20-EMA / May breakout base near $9.00; or repeated failure to reclaim $10 into 2026-06-18 opex (call sweep marked to zero), confirming the leg is dead.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-06-18"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "TSLA",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSLA/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 7,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Confirmed SKIP if TSLA fails to reclaim its 2026-06-02 pre-gap high within ~2 weeks, or another Optimus/Robotaxi milestone slips. Re-engage only on a reclaim of that high paired with a dated robotics catalyst (Optimus milestone or Robotaxi weekly-rides inflection).",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-06-18"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AMD",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMD/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 2,
      "invalidation_trigger": "retry on next decision_window",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-06-25"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "MU",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MU/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 2,
      "invalidation_trigger": "retry on next decision_window",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-06-25"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "UUUU",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UUUU/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 1,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below $16 (mid-May swing low where the rebound began) on >2x avg vol; OR ASM scheme vote fails / deal terminated at the ~late-June 2026 close; OR NdPr rolls under ~$50/kg as China relaxes export controls; OR uranium spot holds <$78 for two consecutive weeks.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-06-26"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "SYRE",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SYRE/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 5,
      "invalidation_trigger": "SPY002 mid-2026 induction readout misses (no stat-sig efficacy vs placebo or class-discordant safety), OR weekly close below $62 offering floor on >2x 20d avg vol, OR Merck tulisokibart / Roivant-Pfizer RVT-3101 prints superior anti-TL1A Phase 3 data eroding SPY002/SPY072 profile.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-06-30"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "EWY",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/EWY/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 2,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below ~$190 (early-June breakout base, -11% from $214) breaks the parabolic leg; OR TrendForce flags Q3 2026 DRAM contract prices decelerating to flat/negative QoQ (cycle peak); OR the Samsung/Hynix AI-profit-redistribution proposal advances to actual legislation.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-07-01"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "CCJ",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CCJ/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 3,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below $100 (under the ~$104 May low) on expanding volume, OR uranium spot under $80/lb, OR Q2 guide cut on the Key Lake/McArthur disruption. Failure to retake $115 (lower high instead) kills the reclaim entry.",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-07-01"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "IREN",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IREN/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 4,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close back below the 2026-05-26 Dell/MSFT breakout base on >1.5x vol; OR disclosure of a Microsoft contract delay/descope; OR a new ATM equity raise >$300M priced below spot (signals the $3.65B IG debt was insufficient).",
      "catalyst_date": "2026-07-02"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "HUT",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HUT/",
      "conviction": "HIGH",
      "archetype": 0,
      "invalidation_trigger": "a daily close below the published invalidation level",
      "catalyst_date": null
    },
    {
      "ticker": "RIOT",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RIOT/",
      "conviction": "HIGH",
      "archetype": 0,
      "invalidation_trigger": "a daily close below the published invalidation level",
      "catalyst_date": null
    },
    {
      "ticker": "TSM",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSM/",
      "conviction": "HIGH",
      "archetype": 0,
      "invalidation_trigger": "a daily close below the published invalidation level",
      "catalyst_date": null
    },
    {
      "ticker": "APLD",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/APLD/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 4,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below 20-EMA (~$45) daily close below $40 (2026-05-20 lease breakout shelf) on volume Any 8-K disclosing an ATM/equity raise within 14d.",
      "catalyst_date": null
    },
    {
      "ticker": "IONQ",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IONQ/",
      "conviction": "MEDIUM",
      "archetype": 6,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below 20-EMA (refresh — prior the published invalidation level stop is stale, trail up). Q2 sequential revenue decline vs Q1 $64.67M or FY guide cut from $260–270M. Or IONQ excluded from the $2B CHIPS equity-stake awards while peers are included (unwinds the 2026-05-26 pop).",
      "catalyst_date": null
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AMSC",
      "name": "",
      "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMSC/",
      "conviction": "LOW",
      "archetype": 2,
      "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below $40 (loses post-earnings shelf + April base pivot; opens path to 200-DMA / $24.87 low). Also dead if next print (est. early Aug) shows 12-mo backlog contracting from ~$280M or grid orders rolling over, or grid-power-transmission theme downgrades to SATURATED/DEAD.",
      "catalyst_date": null
    }
  ],
  "resolved": [],
  "calibration": null
}