BLZE · Backblaze, Inc. · Stock research

Current Thesis

Backblaze is the object-storage layer underneath the neocloud GPU buildout, and on 2026-06-23 that thesis landed its anchor customer. The company signed a five-year, roughly $335M multi-exabyte agreement with CoreWeave: B2 Neo the white-label version of B2 Cloud Storage launched 2026-02-23 at 1 Tb/s supplies the dense HDD-based cold/warm tiers inside CoreWeave AI Object Storage, keeping model-training datasets off the expensive NVMe pools that run active training and inference. The market treated it as a re-rating, gapping the stock +14.1% on announcement and driving it to a fresh 52-week high near $18 (from the high-$7s in early June). Sell-side chased within 48 hours: Craig-Hallum upgraded to Buy with a $16 target (from $6.50), Needham went to $14 (from $8.50) and B. Riley to $16 (from $7). The narrative is ACCELERATING. The complication is location: at ~$18 and a ~$1.07B cap the stock trades above every published target and roughly 2x InvestingPro's $9.90 fair value, with the Q2 print (~2026-08-06) the next hard catalyst and the first read on whether CoreWeave is a template or one whale.

Bullish and bearish views on Backblaze, Inc.

The model's bull view on Backblaze, Inc. (BLZE), in brief: Five-year, ~$335M CoreWeave contract announced 2026-06-23 a multi-exabyte, HDD-tier storage deal that is the first at-scale proof a Tier-1 neocloud will white-label BLZE storage rather than build its own; Craig-Hallum called it "very material" to 2027 estimates. The bear view: Price has run ~130% in about five weeks (high-$7s early June to ~$18 by 2026-07-10) and sits above the entire $14–16 target band and ~2x InvestingPro's $9.90 fair value the CoreWeave catalyst is announced and largely priced. Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• Five-year, ~$335M CoreWeave contract announced 2026-06-23 a multi-exabyte, HDD-tier storage deal that is the first at-scale proof a Tier-1 neocloud will white-label BLZE storage rather than build its own; Craig-Hallum called it "very material" to 2027 estimates.
• The deal validates B2 Neo (launched 2026-02-23), the product purpose-built for GPU-centric operators; one signed anchor de-risks the go-to-market for the next Crusoe/Nebius/Lambda-class prospect.
• Q1 2026 (reported 2026-05-05) already showed the pivot working before CoreWeave: B2 Cloud Storage +24% YoY to $22.4M, AI customers +76% YoY and >1/3 of new bookings, gross margin 61% (from 56%), adjusted EPS $0.04 vs a breakeven expectation; FY26 guide lifted to $161.5–163.5M revenue and EBITDA margin to 23–25%.
• Analyst cluster re-rated hard in late June 2026 Craig-Hallum Buy $16, Needham $14, B. Riley $16 versus the pre-deal $8–11 band, evidence the narrative is being caught by sell-side in real time.
• Eight consecutive EPS beats into the 2026-08-06 print; Q2 guide $39.8–40.2M revenue, with CoreWeave revenue incremental to that guide given the contract was only just signed.
• Third parties size the neocloud-storage TAM at ~$35B in 2026 scaling to ~$236B by 2031 (~46% CAGR); BLZE is now the reference white-label vendor in that lane.

Bear Case

• Price has run ~130% in about five weeks (high-$7s early June to ~$18 by 2026-07-10) and sits above the entire $14–16 target band and ~2x InvestingPro's $9.90 fair value the CoreWeave catalyst is announced and largely priced.
• The Q2 print (~2026-08-06) is a binary into a vertical move: consensus is only EPS −$0.01 on ~$39.9M revenue, and management's own guide implies B2 growth decelerating toward ~20% YoY, so the beat has to be large to justify the multiple.
• $335M is a five-year figure (~$67M/yr at a flat run-rate) layered onto a company guiding ~$162M for FY26; material, but recognized over time rather than a step-change to next-quarter revenue, so the tape is pricing the narrative ahead of the near cash flows.
• Single-customer concentration cuts both ways: one whale de-risks the story while the next several quarters lean on landing a second neocloud to prove B2 Neo is a repeatable platform rather than a bespoke CoreWeave build.
• The blended top line remains diluted by the melting Computer Backup legacy segment; headline revenue growth (~+12% YoY in Q1) badly lags the +24% B2 line the multiple is priced against.
• Mainstream and retail attention is arriving unusually high volume on the late-June upgrades, a +7.6% single-day move on 2026-07-07, and Cramer flagging the valuation as stretched on 2026-06-04 a late-stage tape signature.

Setup & Price Structure

• Trading near $17.9 as of 2026-07-10 with a fresh 52-week high of $17.98 and a ~$1.07B market cap; up ~237% over the trailing year and roughly 130% off the early-June base near $7.76.
• The move is a clean breakout on a real catalyst: +14.1% gap on the 2026-06-23 CoreWeave announcement, follow-through to new highs on the late-June upgrade cluster, and a +7.6% day on 2026-07-07 momentum structure intact, all major moving averages below price and rising.
• The structure is intact; extension is the risk. At ~$18 the stock sits well above the $14–16 target band and ~2x the $9.90 third-party fair-value mark, with no meaningful pullback to a rising 20-day since the deal, so a first entry chases the move rather than retesting support.
• No squeeze mechanics short interest was low (~2.4% of float on the prior read) and this has moved on fundamentals and analyst flow, so there is no forced-cover fuel.
• The post-CoreWeave breakout base sits roughly in the $13–14 zone; losing it on a weekly closing basis would mark the deal move as being given back rather than consolidated.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• ~2026-08-01 Q2 earnings blackout / binary-risk window opens (three trading days before the print); the period to avoid fresh entries into the event.
• 2026-08-06 Q2 2026 earnings (confirmed). Consensus EPS −$0.01 on ~$39.9M revenue; management guide $39.8–40.2M. Watch: B2 Cloud Storage YoY growth (guide implies ~20%), any FY26 guide revision, and first commentary on CoreWeave ramp timing plus any second neocloud customer.
• Unscheduled an additional white-label neocloud customer announcement; any such headline before the print is the single most powerful upside catalyst given the CoreWeave template.

What Would Change Our Mind

• Bull-invalidating price: a weekly close below $13 forfeits the post-CoreWeave breakout leg, dropping back inside the pre-deal range and under the $14–16 target cluster the deal move being sold rather than held.
• Thesis-breaking fundamentals: a 2026-08-06 print with B2 Cloud Storage growth decelerating under ~20% YoY, an FY26 revenue-guide cut below $161.5M, or CoreWeave ramp commentary pushed out any turns the re-rating into an air pocket.
• Theme-breaking: a flip to SATURATED peak mainstream/CNBC coverage and retail-flow spikes with no fresh neocloud win to feed the story, marking the narrative as fully public and late.
• Re-accelerant the other way: a second at-scale white-label neocloud contract confirms B2 Neo is a platform and re-opens sizing even at extended levels.

Correlation Notes

• Trades as a high-beta derivative of the neocloud/GPU-cloud complex moves with CoreWeave (its anchor customer) and sentiment across Nebius, Crusoe, Lambda and the broader AI-datacenter-infrastructure basket; a wobble in the neocloud-capex narrative hits BLZE's multiple directly.
• Correlated to the small-cap-AI momentum cohort (the Russell 2000 AI names that outran Micron's Q2 memory rally); a risk-off rotation out of expensive, barely-profitable small-caps would pressure the multiple regardless of company news.
• Storage-demand read-through to the HDD supply chain (Seagate, Western Digital) the deal thesis is dense low-cost HDD capacity for cold AI data, so BLZE screens with the "AI needs cheap bulk storage" trade rather than the flash/HBM trade.
• Low direct index weight; the primary driver is idiosyncratic (neocloud customer wins), with secondary sensitivity to rate-driven small-cap risk appetite.