Live book · scored in public · open methodology
Most research hides its book and never keeps score. We publish the names we hold and the ones we're circling — each with the exact trigger that would prove it wrong — then resolve them in public, played-out or invalidated, and Brier-scored. Falsifiable, dated, nothing to sell.
The state of the research
Track record
114 resolved114resolved · Brier 0.26
48 played out · 66 invalidated — each vs its own published kill level.
What changed · 7d
40 new · 16 resolvedThe book · held + circling
27 held · 33 circlingHot · momentum
12 themes acceleratingCatalysts · this week
24 this weekThemes in motion
12 accelerating · 10 maturingSource: orbyd nightly pipeline — computed from US market close data, as of (Europe/Berlin).
Ranked · highest conviction first
ARCB
ArcBest Corporation
Theme cluster led by RXO peer name. Stated win-probability p=0.62. A genuine freight-cycle upturn after a multi-year trucking recession: brokerage, LTL and truckload volumes and spot rates are re-accelerating, lifting asset-light and…
DELL
Dell Technologies Inc.
AI-datacenter-infrastructure theme re-accelerating; Dell rebuilt a higher low and reclaimed the low-$400s after a 20% parabola crack, and Evercore ISI raised its PT to $500 (2026-07-08). But a Trump "go buy a Dell" endorsement (2026-07-06)…
LSTR
Landstar System, Inc.
Theme cluster led by RXO peer name. Stated win-probability p=0.62. A genuine freight-cycle upturn after a multi-year trucking recession: brokerage, LTL and truckload volumes and spot rates are re-accelerating, lifting asset-light and…
MRCY
Mercury Systems Inc
Defense-electronics turnaround re-rating inside an accelerating modernization tape: Q3 FY26 (2026-05-06) printed record bookings $348M (+73.7% YoY), 1.48 book-to-bill, record ~$1.6B backlog and +46% EBITDA, with FCF guided positive. But…
OKTA
Okta, Inc.
Identity-security re-rating entering a second, sell-side-led leg: a post-print upgrade wave (KeyBanc street-high $175 on 07-10, Scotiabank upgrade to $165 on 07-06) is still building six weeks after the 05-29 beat-and-raise, lifting the…
OSCR
Oscar Health, Inc.
Margin-recovery re-rate has carried the ACA pure-play leader to new highs, clearing the $30.38 prior 52-wk high on the +11% July 1 break with managed-care breadth (CNC/MOH/AGL) accelerating. But at $30.54 it trades ~28% above the $23.8…
Themes · accelerating
SK Hynix ADR explosion, TSMC's 68% sales surge, hedge funds snapping up semis at fastest pace in 3.5yrs, SanDisk/Micron HBM bid, AMD upgrades (KeyBanc/BofA/Cowen). ARM cracked on HSBC valuation downgrade but core AI-silicon narrative still expanding.
Dossiers in this theme →DELL flagged as IBD SwingTrader buy on AI-server rebuild, VRT/MOD liquid-cooling demand. NY data-center moratorium is a fresh siting headwind to monitor but names still catching a bid.
Dossiers in this theme →IBM explicitly said AI spend isn't crowding out cyber and the group rallied on IBM's worst day; clustered PT raises across TENB/VRNS/QLYS/NET. Confirmed relative-strength breakout while software broadly sold off.
Dossiers in this theme →The live book · held + circling
Not a logo wall published a quarter late — the names we hold right now, and the ones we're circling, each with its thesis and the trigger that would prove it wrong. Live and reasoned — each name dated, with the trigger that would prove it wrong.
Discovery views
Most recent journal entry
RISK-ON
Excerpt
RISK-ON carries, print #23 (n=23) on the public ledger and one session on from yesterday's read. VIX sits at 17.16, inside the calm band but with less cushion beneath the ~18 gate than the recent run of prints allowed. Breadth reads 61.7% (603/977) above the 200-EMA, a healthy majority that eased only marginally. SPY closed 751.94, +8.3% over its 200-EMA of…
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Thesis, invalidation, catalyst — per ticker.
Open →The live book: held + circling. Names + research only.
Open →Which clusters are accelerating, maturing, saturated.
Open →Dated catalysts ahead — this week, next, later.
Open →Every regime call, dated and indexed.
Open →Every resolved thesis, graded against its own trigger.
Open →Where the flow is rotating, week by week.
Open →Five stages, archetype taxonomy, regime logic.
Open →Understand the system
News window
30d
per candidate, daily
Earnings transcripts
4Q
synthesised per name
Archetypes
8
behaviour profiles
Context
1M
side-by-side candidate review
What it is, why a public track record matters, and how to judge one.
Open → How it worksHow a name becomes a thesis, stage by stage.
Open → Theme radarThis week's mechanical momentum clusters — the candidate list, before any curation.
Open → Scored forecastsThe theme-bets, each with a stated probability — open bets and refusals, graded in public.
Open → Kill gatesThe pre-registered, tighten-only conditions that shut the strategy down.
Open → Anatomy of a dossierA live dossier dissected — each part mapped to its stage and model.
Open → RegimesThe macro-regime taxonomy and exactly what each regime gates.
Open → ArchetypesEight behaviour profiles, each a hard rule on how big a name can get.
Open → Why trust itThe honesty mechanisms: invalidation triggers, dated reads, nothing to sell.
Open → State of the bookLive coverage — names tracked, conviction mix, themes, current regime.
Open →Common questions
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Agent endpointsThemes we're tracking
Archetypes in rotation · behaviour profiles