Sectors · weekly read
Where the flow is this week.
Ranked by combined momentum (RSI(14) + % distance from SMA50). Prices/technicals computed from split-adjusted daily bars through the 2026-06-04 close. Regime read: RISK-ON (VIX 16.06, calm; breadth 61.8% of names above their 200-EMA, healthy; SPY +11.6% vs 200-EMA).
| Rank | Sector | Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | vs SMA50 | vs SMA20 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Semis | SMH | $628.51 | 73.1 | +24.83% | +7.89% | 🟢🟢 Strong leadership — extended above SMA50, momentum intact |
| 2 | Tech | XLK | $193.12 | 72.1 | +19.12% | +5.95% | 🟢🟢 Strong leadership — extended above SMA50, momentum intact |
| 3 | S&P 500 | SPY | $756.97 | 69.9 | +6.34% | +1.48% | 🟢 Above both MAs, momentum positive |
| 4 | Healthcare | XLV | $152.04 | 62.1 | +3.69% | +3.25% | 🟢 Above both MAs, momentum positive |
| 5 | Industrials | XLI | $176.13 | 59.5 | +3.10% | +1.78% | 🟢 Above both MAs, momentum positive |
| 6 | Financials | XLF | $52.20 | 57.6 | +1.95% | +1.43% | 🟡 Neutral-positive — above SMA50, RSI mid-range |
| 7 | Real Estate | XLRE | $44.41 | 55.6 | +2.38% | +0.61% | 🟡 Neutral-positive — above SMA50, RSI mid-range |
| 8 | Materials | XLB | $51.62 | 55.2 | +1.04% | +1.11% | 🟡 Neutral-positive — above SMA50, RSI mid-range |
| 9 | Energy | XLE | $58.77 | 53.7 | +0.96% | +1.10% | 🟡 Neutral-positive — above SMA50, RSI mid-range |
| 10 | Consumer Disc | XLY | $117.24 | 46.9 | +0.92% | -1.16% | 🟠 Cooling — RSI under 50 or losing a near MA |
| 11 | Utilities | XLU | $43.95 | 42.3 | -3.36% | -1.34% | 🔴 Below MAs — out of favor |
| 12 | Staples | XLP | $82.03 | 39.9 | -1.27% | -2.38% | 🔴 Below MAs — out of favor |
Key Observations
- Leadership: Semis (SMH) tops the table — RSI 73.1, +24.83% vs its SMA50. RSI > 72 — extended; respect trailing stops.
- Weakest: Staples (XLP) is the most oversold — RSI 39.9, -1.27% vs SMA50. Defensives being sold is a classic risk-on tell.
- Breadth of strength: 10 of 12 sectors sit above their SMA50. Broad participation supports the risk-on read.
- Extension check: 2 sector(s) at RSI ≥ 72 (SMH, XLK) — tighten trailing stops there.
Actionable Tilts
Where momentum lives (leadership)
| Sector | Ticker | RSI | vs SMA50 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semis | SMH | 73.1 | +24.83% | Extended — respect trailing stops. |
| Tech | XLK | 72.1 | +19.12% | Extended — respect trailing stops. |
| S&P 500 | SPY | 69.9 | +6.34% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. |
| Healthcare | XLV | 62.1 | +3.69% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. |
Lagging / avoid for fresh momentum
- Utilities (XLU) — RSI 42.3, -3.36% vs SMA50: below trend — wait for a reclaim.
- Staples (XLP) — RSI 39.9, -1.27% vs SMA50: below trend — wait for a reclaim.
Rotation Signal
Regime: RISK-ON. Leadership sits in SMH, XLK, SPY; the laggards are XLY, XLU, XLP. Defensives at the bottom while growth leads is the textbook risk-on rotation.
Monitor:
- VIX > 20 = calm regime breaking, first risk-on crack (currently 16.06)
- SMH RSI > 72 / XLK RSI > 72 / SPY RSI > 72 = leaders extended, tighten stops (currently 73.1, 72.1, 69.9)
- Breadth < 50% above 200-EMA = participation deteriorating (currently 61.8%)
Deterministic regen from Alpaca daily bars + macro-regime.json. Updated 2026-06-05 · prices through 2026-06-04 close. Research only — no positions, sizes, entries, or P&L.