Where the flow is this week.

Ranked by combined momentum (RSI(14) +% distance from SMA50). Prices/technicals computed from split-adjusted daily bars through the 2026-07-17 close. Regime read: RISK-ON (VIX 15.67, calm; breadth 64.3% of names above their 200-EMA, healthy; SPY +8.0% vs 200-EMA).

| Rank | Sector | Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | vs SMA50 | vs SMA20 | Signal | | ----- | ------- | ------- | ------ | -------- | --------- | --------- | ------- | | 1 | Financials | XLF | $56.25 | 65.6 | +6.05% | +2.32% | Above both MAs, momentum positive | | 2 | Energy | XLE | $57.68 | 61.7 | +2.51% | +5.42% | Neutral-positive above SMA50, RSI mid-range | | 3 | Healthcare | XLV | $161.10 | 58.5 | +5.65% | +1.45% | Above both MAs, momentum positive | | 4 | Real Estate | XLRE | $45.43 | 59.8 | +2.79% | +1.99% | Neutral-positive above SMA50, RSI mid-range | | 5 | Staples | XLP | $85.20 | 55.3 | +1.67% | +1.40% | Neutral-positive above SMA50, RSI mid-range | | 6 | Utilities | XLU | $45.15 | 49.9 | +1.02% | -0.53% | Cooling RSI under 50 or losing a near MA | | 7 | Industrials | XLI | $179.42 | 49.1 | +1.47% | -1.23% | Cooling RSI under 50 or losing a near MA | | 8 | S&P 500 | SPY | $743.28 | 48.7 | +0.01% | -0.23% | Cooling RSI under 50 or losing a near MA | | 9 | Materials | XLB | $50.52 | 46.1 | -0.97% | -1.07% | Cooling RSI under 50 or losing a near MA | | 10 | Consumer Disc | XLY | $115.41 | 46.3 | -1.44% | -0.70% | Cooling RSI under 50 or losing a near MA | | 11 | Tech | XLK | $175.55 | 42.4 | -3.92% | -4.40% | Below MAs out of favor | | 12 | Semis | SMH | $556.08 | 41.2 | -6.88% | -8.94% | Below MAs out of favor |

Key Observations

1. Leadership: Financials (XLF) tops the table RSI 65.6, +6.05% vs its SMA50. Extended but momentum intact.
2. Weakest: Semis (SMH) is the most oversold RSI 41.2, -6.88% vs SMA50. Avoid for fresh momentum until it reclaims its MAs.
3. Breadth of strength: 8 of 12 sectors sit above their SMA50. Broad participation supports the risk-on read.
4. Extension check: No sector at RSI ≥ 72 no blow-off-top reading; momentum can run.

Actionable Tilts

Where momentum lives (leadership)

| Sector | Ticker | RSI | vs SMA50 | Read | | ------- | ------- | ---- | --------- | ----- | | Financials | XLF | 65.6 | +6.05% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. | | Healthcare | XLV | 58.5 | +5.65% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. |

Lagging / avoid for fresh momentum

• Materials (XLB) RSI 46.1, -0.97% vs SMA50: below trend wait for a reclaim.
• Consumer Disc (XLY) RSI 46.3, -1.44% vs SMA50: below trend wait for a reclaim.
• Tech (XLK) RSI 42.4, -3.92% vs SMA50: below trend wait for a reclaim.
• Semis (SMH) RSI 41.2, -6.88% vs SMA50: below trend wait for a reclaim.

Rotation Signal

Regime: RISK-ON. Leadership sits in XLF, XLE, XLV; the laggards are XLY, XLK, SMH. Defensives at the bottom while growth leads is the textbook risk-on rotation.

Monitor:

• VIX > 20 = calm regime breaking, first risk-on crack (currently 15.67)
• XLF RSI > 72 / XLE RSI > 72 / XLV RSI > 72 = leaders extended, tighten stops (currently 65.6, 61.7, 58.5)
• Breadth < 50% above 200-EMA = participation deteriorating (currently 64.3%)

Deterministic regen from a US exchange daily bars + macro-regime.json, refreshed every trading day latest 2026-07-17 · prices through 2026-07-17 close. Research only no positions, sizes, entries, or P&L.