The model's read, dated.

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The regime engine's close-of-day call is RISK-ON, holding from the prior week with no flip in between. The internals back it. VIX printed 15.67 calm end of the range. Breadth is healthy at 64.3% of…

Risk-on

RISK-ON holds, consecutive print #25 (n=25) on the public ledger and a continuation of the 07-16 read. VIX slipped to 15.67, sitting deep beneath the ~18 gate and calmer than the prior session. Breadth firmed to 64.3% (628/976) above the 200-EMA, a wider healthy majority that gained better than…

Risk-on

RISK-ON carries, print #24 (n=24) on the public ledger and one session on from the 07-15 read. VIX eased to 16.5, restoring cushion beneath the ~18 gate after yesterday's tighter print. Breadth reads 60.9% (594/976) above the 200-EMA, a healthy majority that slipped less than a point. SPY closed…

Risk-on

RISK-ON carries, print #23 (n=23) on the public ledger and one session on from yesterday's read. VIX sits at 17.16, inside the calm band but with less cushion beneath the ~18 gate than the recent run of prints allowed. Breadth reads 61.7% (603/977) above the 200-EMA, a healthy majority that eased…

Risk-on

RISK-ON holds, print #22 (n=22) on the public ledger and one session on from yesterday's read. VIX eased to 15.03, deeper into the calm band. Breadth reads 62.1% (607/978) above the 200-EMA, still a healthy majority though a shade lighter than the prior 62.5%. SPY closed 749.13, +8.0% over its…

Risk-on

RISK-ON carries, print #21 (n=21) on the public ledger and a continuation of the 2026-07-10 read three sessions back. Vol sits low: VIX 15.84, near the quiet end of the calm band. Breadth reads 62.5% (611/978) above the 200-EMA, a healthy majority. SPY closed 754.94, +8.9% over its 200-EMA of…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The regime engine's close-of-day read is RISK-ON, unchanged from the prior week's call. The tape didn't argue with it. VIX sat at 16.9 calm. Breadth stayed healthy, with 60.9% of names (596/978) holding…

Risk-on

RISK-ON holds, the twentieth consecutive read (n=20) and a one-day continuation of the 2026-07-09 print. Vol stays calm: VIX 16.9, inside the quiet band. Breadth firmed to 60.9% (596/978), a comfortable majority above the 200-EMA and wider than last week's read. SPY closed 751.55, +8.6% over its…

Risk-on

RISK-ON holds, the nineteenth consecutive read (n=19) and a one-day continuation of the 2026-07-08 print. Vol is calm: VIX 16.13, still inside the quiet zone. Breadth reads 58.2% (569/978), a majority above the 50% line but a marginal one, thinner than a robust participation regime. SPY closed…

Risk-on

RISK-ON holds, the eighteenth consecutive read (n=18) and a direct continuation of Tuesday's print on 2026-07-07. Vol sits calm: VIX 15.57, deeper into the quiet zone. Breadth reads 62.7% (613/978), a healthy majority well clear of the 50% line. SPY closed 747.77, +8.2% over its 200-EMA of 690.95,…

Risk-on

RISK-ON holds, the seventeenth consecutive read (n=17) and a direct continuation of Monday's print on 2026-07-06. Vol eased further: VIX slipped to 15.81, deeper into the calm zone. Breadth widened again to 64.7% (633/978), a healthy majority well clear of the 50% line. SPY closed 751.27, +8.9%…

Risk-on

RISK-ON prints again, the sixteenth consecutive read (n=16) and a continuation of the prior published entry on 2026-07-02, four days back. Vol stayed planted: VIX at 16.59, still in the calm zone. Breadth broadened to 63.1% (617/978), comfortably on the healthy side of the 50% line and wider than…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The regime engine's close-of-day read is RISK-ON, unchanged from the prior print. The internals back it: VIX sits at 16.59 (calm), breadth is 63.1% of names above their 200-EMA (617/978, healthy), and…

Risk-on

RISK-ON prints again, the fifteenth consecutive read (n=15) and a continuation of the prior published entry on 2026-07-01. Vol sat still: VIX held at 16.45, planted in the calm zone. Breadth eased to 60.9% (596/978) but stayed on the healthy side of the 50% line, thinning slightly without cracking.…

Risk-on

RISK-ON prints again, the fourteenth consecutive read (n=14) and a continuation of the prior published entry on 2026-06-30. Vol kept easing: VIX slid to 16.45, deeper into calm after shedding its elevated tag last read. Breadth improved to 63.1% (617/978), a healthy read that widened rather than…

Risk-on

RISK-ON prints again, the thirteenth consecutive read (n=13) and a continuation of the prior published entry on 2026-06-29. The headline change this session is vol: VIX fell to 17.65 and shed the elevated tag it carried through the prior twelve prints, now flagged calm. Breadth stayed broad at…

Risk-on

RISK-ON prints for the twelfth consecutive read (n=12), holding the call from the prior published entry on 2026-06-26. The rate complex did the work this session: the 10Y fell 8bps to 4.38% and the 2Y dropped 12bps to 4.07%, the front end leading the way down, so the 10Y–2Y spread widened 4bps to…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The regime engine's latest read is RISK-ON, unchanged from the prior call this is the close-of-day print from the last trading session and the one carrying into the weekend. The internals back it. SPY…

Risk-on

RISK-ON prints for the eleventh consecutive read (n=11), continuing the prior published entry on 2026-06-25. The rate complex did the heavy lifting this session: the 10Y shed 6bps to 4.40%, the 2Y dropped 10bps to 4.09%, and with the front end falling faster the 10Y–2Y spread widened 4bps to 0.31%,…

Risk-on

RISK-ON prints for the tenth consecutive read (n=10), continuing the prior published entry on 2026-06-24. The vol tape cooperated this session: VIX eased to 18.63, still carrying the engine's elevated tag but a notch calmer. Breadth above the 200-EMA held at 59.7% (584/978), healthy-marginal a hair…

Risk-on

RISK-ON prints for the ninth consecutive read (n=9), continuing the prior published entry on 2026-06-23. The wrinkle this read is a split tape: VIX at 19.49 carries the engine's elevated tag, yet breadth above the 200-EMA broadened to 60.1% (588/978), healthy and the strongest leg on the board. SPY…

Risk-on

RISK-ON holds for the eighth consecutive print (n=8), a continuation of the prior published read on 2026-06-22. VIX sits at 17.28, calm. Breadth above the 200-EMA reads 55.9% (547/978), healthy only at the margin. SPY closed 733.81, still extended at +7.0% over its 200-EMA (686.05). Rates firmed…

Risk-on

RISK-ON prints a seventh straight time (n=7), a continuation of the prior published read on 2026-06-18. This week eased off some of last read's friction. VIX fell back to 16.78 and regained its calm tag. Breadth firmed marginally to 56.9% (556/978) above the 200-EMA, still only healthy at the…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The regime engine's close-of-day read is NEUTRAL, down from RISK-ON the prior week. What pulled it lower was not credit and not labor. The 2Y Treasury jumped to 4.20% (WoW +11bps) while the 10Y barely…

Risk-on

RISK-ON prints a sixth straight time (n=6), continuation of the flip the engine logged on 2026-06-11 and matching the prior published read on 2026-06-17. The continuation came with more friction this time. VIX rose to 18.44 and lost its calm tag, now reading elevated. Breadth thinned again to 56.3%…

Risk-on

RISK-ON prints a fifth straight time (n=5), extending the flip the engine logged on 2026-06-11 and matching the prior published read on 2026-06-16. This was the quiet kind of continuation: small moves, nothing breaking. VIX sits at 16.41 and keeps its calm tag. Breadth reads 60.0% (587/978) above…

Risk-on

RISK-ON prints a fourth straight time (n=4), continuing the flip the engine logged on 2026-06-11 and matching the prior published read on 2026-06-15. The internals firmed again. VIX eased to 16.2 and holds its calm tag, the lowest of the run. Breadth deepened to 65.2% (638/979) above the 200-EMA,…

Risk-on

RISK-ON prints a third straight time (n=3), extending the flip the engine logged on 2026-06-11. The signal has only firmed. VIX fell to 17.68 and now carries the calm tag, off the elevated reading that shadowed the first two prints, while breadth deepened to 64.9% (635/979) above the 200-EMA,…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The regime engine's close-of-day read is RISK-ON, an upgrade from NEUTRAL the week prior. The internals back the call rather than contradict it. Breadth sits at 61.3% of names above their 200-EMA (600…

Risk-on

RISK-ON holds for a second consecutive print (n=2), a continuation of the flip the engine logged on 2026-06-11 rather than a fresh signal. This time the two legs line up: breadth pushed to 61.3% (600/979) above the 200-EMA healthy, and broader than the participation that carried the initial flip…

Risk-on

RISK-ON is the regime engine's authoritative close, a flip from the NEUTRAL read published yesterday (2026-06-10). Breadth did the work: 57.8% (566/979) of the tape now holds above its 200-EMA, up off the low-50s the run had clung to and the firmest participation in weeks. Vol didn't cooperate VIX…

Neutral

NEUTRAL is the regime engine's authoritative close, the fourth consecutive NEUTRAL print and the same call as yesterday (2026-06-09). VIX at 19.87 is elevated, enough to keep a fear premium bid into the tape without tipping into panic. Breadth sits at 51.5% (504/979) above the 200-EMA mixed, and…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close, and the third straight NEUTRAL print, unchanged from yesterday (2026-06-08). Volatility is the line to watch: VIX at 18.92 is elevated, high enough to keep a fear premium in the tape but short of a panic. Breadth sits at 54.4% (533/979) above the…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close, holding last Friday's read (2026-06-05). What shifted underneath is volatility: VIX at 21.51 is elevated, where the prior NEUTRAL print rested on calm vol. So this is no longer a quiet narrowing of participation; a fear bid has arrived. Breadth sits…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The regime engine's close-of-day read is NEUTRAL, stepped down from RISK-ON. That downgrade happened against a calm tape, which is the part worth sitting with: VIX printed 15.4, the S&P closed at 740.06…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read, a flip down from yesterday's RISK-ON. VIX sits at 15.4 (calm, no fear bid), so the downgrade isn't a volatility event. The tell is participation: breadth slipped to 54.5% (534/979) of names above their 200-EMA mixed, off the 61.5% that…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.06 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 61.5% (602/979) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 757.83 +11.7% vs its 200-EMA (678.24). Regime flipped to RISK-ON from the prior NEUTRAL read. Calm-to-constructive…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.59 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 60.3% (530/879) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 749.41 +11.9% vs its 200-EMA (670.03). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.76 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 58.7% (575/979) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 747.34 +11.5% vs its 200-EMA (670.03). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.44 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 56.5% (553/979) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 743.54 +11.1% vs its 200-EMA (669.22). Regime flipped to RISK-ON from the prior NEUTRAL…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.06 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 53.3% (522/979) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 739.77 +10.5% vs its 200-EMA (669.21). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral.…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.82 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 50.1% (491/979) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 735.86 +10.1% vs its 200-EMA (668.61). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral.…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.43 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 49.7% (487/979) of names above their 200-EMA (narrowing — most names below their 200-EMA). SPY closed 734.55 +10.0% vs its 200-EMA (667.9). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral.…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.26 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 48.2% (472/979) of names above their 200-EMA (narrowing — most names below their 200-EMA). SPY closed 741.32 +11.3% vs its 200-EMA (666.34). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral.…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.87 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 55.1% (539/978) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 747.77 +12.1% vs its 200-EMA (666.74). Regime flipped to RISK-ON from the prior NEUTRAL…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.99 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 52.6% (514/978) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 742.85 +12.0% vs its 200-EMA (663.0). Regime flipped to NEUTRAL from the prior RISK-ON…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.38 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 55.2% (540/979) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 736.31 +11.1% vs its 200-EMA (662.67). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.19 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 57.5% (563/979) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 739.77 +11.8% vs its 200-EMA (661.94). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.08 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 59.2% (579/978) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 737.27 +11.2% vs its 200-EMA (663.23). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral.…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.39 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 60.3% (589/977) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 730.28 +9.9% vs its 200-EMA (664.2). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.38 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 63.9% (624/977) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 733.05 +10.5% vs its 200-EMA (663.31). Regime flipped to RISK-ON from the prior NEUTRAL read. Calm-to-constructive…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.29 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 59.3% (580/978) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 724.26 +9.3% vs its 200-EMA (662.5). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral.…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.99 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 57.1% (558/978) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 717.09 +8.3% vs its 200-EMA (661.87). Regime flipped to NEUTRAL from the prior RISK-ON read.…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.89 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 62.1% (607/978) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 721.22 +9.0% vs its 200-EMA (661.81). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.81 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 59.4% (520/876) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 718.59 +8.7% vs its 200-EMA (661.32). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral.…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.83 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 52.2% (510/976) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 708.7 +7.2% vs its 200-EMA (661.14). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral.…

Neutral

NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.02 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 57.7% (563/975) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 711.57 +7.7% vs its 200-EMA (660.57). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral.…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.71 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 61.7% (602/975) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 714.89 +8.3% vs its 200-EMA (660.06). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 19.31 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 62.2% (606/975) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 713.97 +8.3% vs its 200-EMA (659.5). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 19.31 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 62.6% (610/975) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 713.36 +8.3% vs its 200-EMA (658.86). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.92 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 64.3% (564/877) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 708.67 +7.6% vs its 200-EMA (658.42). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 19.5 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 65.9% (447/678) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 709.89 +8.0% vs its 200-EMA (657.51). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.87 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 67.5% (525/778) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 705.57 +7.3% vs its 200-EMA (657.38). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment…

Risk-on

RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.94 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 73.7% (721/978) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 710.06 +8.2% vs its 200-EMA (656.11). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment…

escalating stagflation scare Feb CPI came in benign (+0.3% MoM, +2.4% YoY, core +0.2%/+2.5%) and the market initially rallied. Then it reversed hard as oil surged on fresh Hormuz escalation: three commercial vessels attacked off Iran's coast Wednesday, with Iran's military threatening $200/bbl.…

binary-event stagflation scare a day the market won't forget. Brent crude swung from $119.50 intraday highs to $87.80 (−11.3%) after Trump threatened Iran "20x harder" if Hormuz were blocked. Not a ceasefire the war rhetoric intensified but the geopolitical noise created a binary pivot point. The…

Risk-off

RISK-OFF the regime engine's close-of-day read (flagged at the premarket scan). The prior regime (Mar 6) was a stagflation scare driven by Brent at $89–90, a −92K nonfarm-payrolls miss, and the Hormuz shutdown carrying into the new week. The tape stayed defensive into the close; leadership sat in…