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This week · daily digest

What changed this week.

Updated ·

Macro regime · as of

The US market backdrop, right now.

Macro view →
Regime call Risk-on

VIX

18.67

elevated

Breadth · % above 200d

63.7 %

broad

S&P 500 vs 200d EMA

+5.9 %

above trend

Conviction moves · last 7 days

Where conviction shifted this week.

80 names changed conviction tier across orbyd's dossiers in the seven days to .

Conviction-tier moves across orbyd dossiers in the seven days to 2026-07-29
Name Date From To
AAON MEDIUM LOW
ABCL MEDIUM LOW
AEHR HIGH MEDIUM
AFRM MEDIUM LOW
AKAM MEDIUM LOW
ALAB MEDIUM LOW
ALGT HIGH MEDIUM
ALK MEDIUM LOW
ALMS MEDIUM LOW
AMC LOW MEDIUM
AMD LOW MEDIUM
ASML HIGH MEDIUM
ASX MEDIUM LOW
ATEYY MEDIUM LOW
BB MEDIUM LOW
BIDU MEDIUM LOW
BSIN NONE LOW
CBZ NONE LOW
CECO MEDIUM LOW
CEG LOW MEDIUM
CEVA MEDIUM LOW
CHYM NONE LOW
CLF LOW MEDIUM
CLMT NONE MEDIUM
CLS MEDIUM LOW
CLSK MEDIUM HIGH
CMBT MEDIUM LOW
COTY NONE LOW
CROX MEDIUM LOW
DELL LOW MEDIUM
DINO NONE MEDIUM
FIG NONE LOW
GRPN NONE LOW
GWRE NONE LOW
HOOD MEDIUM LOW
IDYA LOW MEDIUM
IVA NONE LOW
KARO NONE LOW
KELYA NONE LOW
KLC NONE LOW
KVYO NONE LOW
LRCX MEDIUM LOW
LSTR MEDIUM LOW
LZ NONE LOW
MAN NONE LOW
MAZE MEDIUM LOW
MGNI MEDIUM LOW
MIRM HIGH MEDIUM
NAVN NONE LOW
NBIS LOW MEDIUM
NET HIGH MEDIUM
NP LOW MEDIUM
NSP NONE LOW
OKLO LOW MEDIUM
OPI NONE LOW
PRGS NONE MEDIUM
RH NONE LOW
RHI NONE LOW
RIVN MEDIUM LOW
SLDB MEDIUM LOW
TBI NONE LOW
TNET NONE LOW
TRIP MEDIUM LOW
TSEM LOW MEDIUM
TXN MEDIUM LOW
UGP NONE MEDIUM
UHAL LOW MEDIUM
USO LOW MEDIUM
UTZ NONE LOW
VAC MEDIUM LOW
VG NONE MEDIUM
VLO NONE MEDIUM
WLFC MEDIUM LOW
WNC MEDIUM LOW
WTI LOW MEDIUM
XNCR NONE LOW
XPO MEDIUM LOW
YETI LOW MEDIUM
ZBIO LOW MEDIUM
ZVRA MEDIUM LOW

New & refreshed · last 7 days

Fresh dossiers this week.

All dossiers →

BIDU

fresh

Baidu, Inc. ADS

LOW

De-risking headlines (dual-primary HK listing approval, Apple Intelligence China clearance, mid-July) rallied the HK lines but the ADR kept bleeding — cap down to $37.21B (07-24) from mid-$40B in June. Structure rolled over below the $110…

Special situation megacap-ai-platforms ev-autonomous-mobility
catalyst ·

BVS

fresh

Bioventus Inc.

LOW

De-levering small-cap orthobiologics turnaround, now maturing: the July-2025 refi killed the 2026 debt wall, margins inflected above 20%, and the stock re-rated ~+117% to within 4% of its 52-week high. The easy money is largely priced; the…

Special situation medtech-diagnostics
catalyst ·

CRNX

fresh

Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

LOW

Momentum leg is dead: the story crystallized into Vertex's $85.00/share all-cash takeout (announced 2026-07-06, ~$10B). Shares gapped to ~$83.50 and now trade as a merger-arb spread capped at $85 with ~$40 of air below on a break. Residual…

Earnings inflection rare-disease-gene-therapy
catalyst ·

ETON

fresh

Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

LOW

Q1 beat-and-raise (adj EPS $0.14 vs $0.09, FY26 guide lifted above $120M, 2026-05-14) confirmed the specialty-pharma rollup, but the story stopped accelerating in mid-May and now drifts through an empty window into the ~August Q2 print —…

Defensive rare-disease-gene-therapy
catalyst ·

GSHD

fresh

Goosehead Insurance, Inc.

LOW

Sell-side is re-rating GSHD ahead of the tape: five price-target raises in eight days (Piper $52→$72, Cantor $76, UBS $70, JPM $60, RBC $55) against a stock still at $54.28 and -49% YoY. The 2026-07-22 Q2 print is the binary that decides…

Earnings inflection managed-care-health-services
catalyst ·

HOOD

fresh

Robinhood Markets, Inc.

LOW

Crypto-exchange/tokenization leg has shifted from accelerating to maturing: analyst targets are catching up ($125 KeyBanc 7/22, $123 Needham 7/21) after the move while ARK keeps distributing and BTC softens near $66k. The 2026-07-29 Q2…

Compounder fintech-consumer-credit
catalyst ·

KARO

fresh

Karooooo Ltd.

LOW

Founder-led fleet-telematics compounder: Q1 FY2027 (2026-07-15) delivered a record 142,472 net Cartrack adds (+70% YoY) and +22% group revenue, but the stock had already run ~22% into a fresh 1-year high near $60 and prints overbought. The…

Compounder emerging-markets
analysed ·

LMND

fresh

Lemonade, Inc.

LOW

Sell-side is converging on the sidelines right at resistance — Piper (Neutral, 2026-07-15), Morgan Stanley (cut to Equal-Weight 2026-07-08, $75) and KBW ($48 Underperform) all stepped back — while LMND stays boxed between the $50 neckline…

Theme leader managed-care-health-services
catalyst ·

MAN

fresh

ManpowerGroup

LOW

Cyclical staffing earnings inflection: Q2 beat (adj EPS $0.99 vs $0.95; rev $4.86B vs $4.72B) plus an above-street Q3 guide ($0.96–1.06 vs $0.88) drove a 35% short-squeeze spike to ~$52.77 on 2026-07-16. The binary catalyst has already…

Retail squeeze cyclical-industrials
analysed ·

Themes · accelerating · as of

The theme clusters picking up.

Themes in motion →

AI enterprise software

ACCELERATING
confidence · 60%

Software is the only large cluster with 1m momentum contributions well above 3m (ADBE 24.6 vs 5.5, ADSK 22.2 vs 2.1, HUBS 28.7 vs 6.1, WIX 31.4 vs -24.3, ACN 28.7 vs -6.2), with dated support: 'Adobe Stock Rises as Enterprise Software Sentiment Rebounds' (7/28), Guggenheim initiations on ADSK at $245 and GWRE at $180 (7/23), WDAY FedRAMP Moderate authorization (7/23), Citi raise on KVYO to $34 (7/24). Flips to MATURING if the 1m-over-3m spread compresses next week; the theme is broad and OOMA, DFIN and FSLY carry no company-specific headlines in this context.

Dossiers in this theme →

Binary-catalyst biotech

ACCELERATING
confidence · 38%

Grouped on structure small clinical-stage names whose price is set by binary events with two 1m reversals off negative 3m bases (IVA -10.6 to 34.5, OMER -25.5 to 26.6) and two fresh initiations on TENX (Evercore ISI Outperform $39 on 7/22, Canaccord Buy $35 on 7/28). Evidence is thin: ATAI, MMED and IVA have no company-specific headlines in this context and OMER appears only in a 7/27 movers list, so this is a low-confidence read that fails if the 1m reversals do not extend.

Dossiers in this theme →

Consumer discretionary rotation

ACCELERATING
confidence · 44%

New cluster where COTY (3m 15.4 to 1m 44.3) and ELF (Jefferies Buy raised to $100, 7/28) show genuine 1m acceleration and BRBR took two target raises (JPM to $17 on 7/28, Stifel to $15 on 7/22). UTZ is the second-highest score on the screen at 82.7 but that is deal-driven Intersnack Group agreed to buy it (7/24), with Piper Sandler cutting to Neutral while raising the target to $14.25 (7/23) so it is not evidence of a consumer bid. Drops to MATURING once UTZ's deal spread stops flattering the cluster and if COTY's 1m fades.

Dossiers in this theme →

Crypto exchanges & financials

ACCELERATING
confidence · 42% newly accelerating

Measured: all four scored members flipped from deeply negative 3m contributions to positive 1m (MSTR -43.2 to 16.8, BMNR -19.0 to 28.7, SBET -10.9 to 33.1, DJT -1.6 to 32.0) a reversal off a washout, not a confirmed trend, and headlines are two-sided (Circle acquired IBM's blockchain patent portfolio 7/27-7/28; crypto 'plummeted' 7/28 then gained ahead of the Fed 7/29; Strategy paused bitcoin buying per 7/28 commentary). Invalidated if the Fed decision or the delayed CLARITY Act vote (7/28) sends 1m contributions back negative.

Dossiers in this theme →

Fintech & consumer credit

ACCELERATING
confidence · 56%

Guidance is moving, not just multiples: PYPL raised its outlook on a strong quarter and launched BNPL with Amazon in Germany and Austria (7/28); WEX raised FY2026 adj EPS guidance to $19.68-$20.08 from $18.95-$19.55 vs $19.31 est (7/22), with Mizuho at $200 and KBW at $210; 1m contributions exceed 3m at PYPL (32.1 vs 18.0), PAY (44.9 vs 22.4), BILL (32.0 vs 24.8) and WEX (31.4 vs 21.6). Invalidated if HOOD's Q2 print, previewed 7/28, or PYPL follow-through reverses that 1m-over-3m spread.

Dossiers in this theme →

Managed care & health services

ACCELERATING
confidence · 44%

Proposed as a new id because the taxonomy has no insurance bucket: these are premium-underwriting and brokerage balance sheets, categorically distinct from crypto-exchanges-financials (no digital-asset exposure) and from fintech-consumer-credit (underwriting and commission income, not payment volume). Evidence: GSHD Q2 call 7/22 with UBS raising to $72 and RBC to $58 (7/23-7/27), SAFT rose over 37% after hours on 7/24 per Benzinga the driver is not in the provided context AMP Q2 adj EPS $11.07 vs $10.73 est on sales of $4.94B (7/23), and CBZ scores 47.4. LMND is carried from the watchlist with no headlines this week. Fails if the normalizer folds it away or if SAFT's move proves a one-off event rather than sector flow.

Dossiers in this theme →

Catalysts ahead · as of

The dated catalysts on the clock.

Full calendar →

This week 176

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation

fda

today
APH

Amphenol Corporation

earnings

today

ArcBest Corporation

earnings

today
ARM

Arm Holdings plc

earnings

today

Advantest Corporation

fda

today
AUR

Aurora Innovation, Inc.

earnings

today

Broadcom Inc.

earnings

today

Bandwidth Inc.

earnings

today

+168 more

Next week 216

AbCellera Biologics Inc.

fda

in 7d
ACB

Aurora Cannabis Inc.

fda

in 7d
AMC

Amc Entertainment Holdings, Inc.

earnings

in 7d

Amplitude, Inc.

earnings

in 7d

American Superconductor Corporation

earnings

in 7d

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited

earnings

in 7d

A10 Networks Inc

earnings

in 7d
BHE

Benchmark Electronics

fda

in 7d

+208 more

Later 62

Abeona Therapeutics Inc.

earnings

in 14d

Ambiq Micro, Inc.

earnings

in 14d

Ballard Power Systems, Inc.

fda

in 14d

Big Sky Industrial Inc.

fda

in 14d

Coherent Corp.

earnings

in 14d

Cisco Systems, Inc.

earnings

in 14d

Dave Inc.

earnings

in 14d

Fortinet, Inc.

earnings

in 14d

+54 more

Resolved · last 7 days

The theses that closed out.

ACIW ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW)

Thesis played out

ALHC Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (ALHC)

Thesis invalidated

CDW CDW Corporation (CDW)

Thesis played out

FN Fabrinet (FN)

Thesis invalidated

LILAK Liberty Latin America Ltd. (LILAK)

Thesis played out

MTRN Materion Corporation (MTRN)

Thesis invalidated

MTUM MTUM

Thesis invalidated

RXO RXO, Inc. (RXO)

Thesis invalidated

SNDX Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SNDX)

Thesis invalidated

STX Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX)

Thesis invalidated

TH Target Hospitality Corp. (TH)

Thesis invalidated

UCTT Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. (UCTT)

Thesis invalidated

UMC United Microelectronic Corp. (UMC)

Thesis invalidated

VERU Veru Inc. (VERU)

Thesis invalidated

EVH Evolent Health, Inc (EVH)

Thesis invalidated

LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH)

Thesis played out

M Macy's Inc. (M)

Thesis played out

MYE Myers Industries, Inc. (MYE)

Thesis played out

MYGN Myriad Genetics, Inc. (MYGN)

Thesis invalidated

NEO NeoGenomics, Inc. (NEO)

Thesis invalidated

NOK Nokia Corporation (NOK)

Thesis invalidated

NUTX Nutex Health Inc. (NUTX)

Thesis invalidated

REAX The Real Brokerage, Inc. (REAX)

Thesis invalidated

SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)

Thesis played out

VICR Vicor Corporation (VICR)

Thesis invalidated

AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)

Thesis invalidated

BAND Bandwidth Inc. (BAND)

Thesis invalidated

GCMG GCM Grosvenor Inc. (GCMG)

Thesis invalidated

MMYT MakeMyTrip Limited (MMYT)

Thesis invalidated

MRCY Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY)

Thesis played out

PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)

Thesis invalidated

XXI Twenty One Capital, Inc. (XXI)

Thesis invalidated

AGYS Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS)

Thesis invalidated

ALGT Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)

Thesis invalidated

FROG JFrog Ltd. (FROG)

Thesis invalidated

RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)

Thesis invalidated

YETI YETI Holdings, Inc. (YETI)

Thesis played out

Week-ahead note

The week-ahead read.

The regime read holds RISK-ON, unchanged from the prior session: 62.6% of names sit above their 200-EMA, SPY is 5.8% above its own, and VIX remains elevated at 18.58. Leadership is top-heavy and cyclical beneath CRNX (Healthcare) prints a momentum score of 127.842 on a 128.624% one-month move against 82.668 for the next name, UTZ, with refiners PARR and PBF and Financial Services names GSHD and SAFT filling out the…