Watchlist · live, names only
What the model is reading next.
Updated ·
Updated: 2026-06-05 — Regime RISK-ON (SPX +11.6% over its 200-EMA, VIX 16.06 / calm, breadth 61.8% of names above their 200-EMA). This is a research note — names, theses, and the levels we're watching. Not advice, not positions. Per-name prices are current reads via FMP (Alpaca fallback) as of 2026-06-05.
This is the active research bench, built from the live ticker dossiers (status WATCHLIST / HELD with a real thesis). It tracks what we're watching and why — the theme, the archetype, the conviction tag, and the level that would invalidate the thesis. It does not disclose positioning.
AI chips, foundry & memory supercycle
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $518.89 | — | — |
| ASML | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $1758.33 | — | — |
| AVGO | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $417.58 | Q2 FY26 (2026-06-03) printed a monster — $30B AI-semi bookings vs $10.8B shipped (2.8x book-to-bill) + $100B FY27 AI guide — but the stock SOLD THE NEWS on a beat-and-reiterate. Fundamentals ACCELERATING, tape now MATURING. The binary we deferred 6 weeks for has cleared; want the post-earnings higher-low that holds, not the day-1 flush. | Weekly close below the post-earnings reaction low AND below the 20-EMA (sell-the-news becomes a de-rate); OR FY27 AI guide cut below $100B; OR confirmed Google/Meta TPU-generation share loss to MRVL. |
| EWY | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $203.29 | Memory super-cycle PROVEN and still tightening (DRAM Q2 +58–63% QoQ, sold out through 2026). Our 5/23 "saturated" SKIP at [entry redacted] [trade redacted] as EWY ripped to $214.53 (6/3), ~1.5% under the 52-wk high. Theme ACCELERATING + cluster-confirmed (EWY/QQQ widest since 2001); momentum-realignment says ride the leg at MEDIUM, don't repeat the skip. | Weekly close below ~$190 (early-June breakout base, -11% from [entry redacted]) breaks the parabolic leg; OR TrendForce flags Q3 2026 DRAM contract prices decelerating to flat/negative QoQ (cycle peak); OR the Samsung/Hynix AI-profit-redistribution proposal advances to actual legislation. |
| INTC | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $111.03 | AI-PC + agentic-CPU + foundry-turnaround leg now CONTESTED: NVIDIA's 2026-06-01 ARM AI-PC chip launch hit INTC -5% (direct x86 threat) while Burry shorts the semi complex on a dot-com parallel. Parabolic ~$102 (~170% above 200DMA, 108x P/E); sell-side PT-chasing to $100-110 but ratings stuck Equal-Weight. Late-stage, not a fresh setup. | Daily close below $102.50 support (2026-06-02 level) confirms NVIDIA-PC-threat distribution top; or Q2 call shows PC CPU share loss to ARM. Bull thesis stays invalid absent a named external 18A foundry customer. |
| MU | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $988.07 | — | — |
| TSM | HELD | — | [entry redacted] | thesis continuation on thesis continuation. | close < $365.11. |
Mega-cap AI platforms & enterprise software
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $627.54 | New leg: Meta monetizing AI BEYOND ads — Business Agent Platform + $200/mo Hatch agent (6/3), explicit "diversify beyond ads" push (6/2), Rosenblatt $1,015. Custom-silicon thesis validated by Broadcom's $100B/2027 forecast + $73B backlog, Meta the anchor ASIC customer. ACCELERATING fresh narrative, not the old earnings trade — but price-blind this cycle. | Weekly close below 20-EMA on rising volume; OR Q2 ad rev <+15% YoY (vs Q4 +21%); OR Business Agent/Hatch show no paying-customer traction by Q2 print (~2026-07-29); OR AVGO/custom-silicon theme rolls over hard into SATURATED. |
| PLTR | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $141.68 | Q1 binary confirmed bull (Rule of 40 145%); new leg is commercial-flywheel re-acceleration (Google Cloud Marketplace + Dell on-prem + 4 deals 2026-06-04) plus Trump 'trusted partner' 60-day clock (2026-06-03). But price just got REJECTED at the 200-DMA (2026-06-03) into profit-taking on a MATURING theme. Trade the reclaim, not the rejection. | Failure to reclaim the 200-DMA within ~2-3 weeks plus a daily close below the early-June profit-taking swing low on >1.5x avg volume; OR DIA ruling formally excludes PLTR from the contract bid; OR Q2 US commercial decel <45% YoY (~Aug). |
| TSLA | LOW | Emergent | $417.36 | Optimus/robotics leg is actively breaking, not accelerating — TSLA shed $75B in a session on 2026-06-02 after Sam Altman targeted Optimus and NVIDIA armed Chinese humanoid rivals with an open robotics platform. Musk-complex capital is draining into the ~mid-June SpaceX IPO ($1.77T, $135), not TSLA. No fresh TSLA-specific accelerant — stay flat until structure reclaims the… | Confirmed SKIP if TSLA fails to reclaim its 2026-06-02 pre-gap high within ~2 weeks, or another Optimus/Robotaxi milestone slips. Re-engage only on a reclaim of that high paired with a dated robotics catalyst (Optimus milestone or Robotaxi weekly-rides inflection). |
Precision biotech, diagnostics & life-science tools
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYRE | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $78.49 | TL1A/I&I platform narrative accelerating: SPY001 de-risked UC (best-in-class, p<0.0001, Q1 5/5), now multi-asset readout cluster — SPY002 anti-TL1A mid-2026, SPY003 Q3, SPY072 rheum Q3-Q4. DB lifted PT to $115 (6/4), Stifel $107; stock ~$72 near 52wk-high $78.80, +345% YoY. Next leg = SPY002 binary. | SPY002 mid-2026 induction readout misses (no stat-sig efficacy vs placebo or class-discordant safety), OR weekly close below $62 offering floor on >2x 20d avg vol, OR Merck tulisokibart / Roivant-Pfizer RVT-3101 prints superior anti-TL1A Phase 3 data eroding SPY002/SPY072 profile. |
Crypto, exchanges & fintech beta
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $164.15 | 1.5–2.5x BTC-beta proxy in a confirmed bear leg, not a dip: BTC $63.6K (−50% off ATH, 11-day ETF outflows −$3.45B, MSTR now SELLING, whale distribution at 2022 lows). COIN $173.99 has sliced under the Piper $180 bear anchor and all MAs. Momentum narrative rolled MATURING→SATURATED. Falling knife — no long until BTC reclaims ~$68K and COIN closes >$185 weekly. Watchlist only. | Long re-arms ONLY on BTC reclaim of ~$68K AND COIN weekly close above $185 (back over Piper $180 anchor + 20-EMA), ideally with 3+ days net-positive ETF flows. BTC losing $60K opens $55K → harder no-touch. Do not enter into the knife; do not buy oversold RSI alone. |
| CRCL | MEDIUM | Emergent | $90.59 | Awaited tier-1 catalyst printed — Mastercard added USDC settlement 2026-06-03 — overriding the Compass Point $77 ceiling; rails narrative re-accelerating with HC Wainwright Buy $150 (5/18) + Nium 190-country deal (5/27). Offset: Tiger Global exited its entire stake (5/15) and KeyBanc only Sector Weight (5/26). Constructive but distribution-flagged — probe, don't chase. | Weekly close below $77 on above-average volume (Compass Point magnet reclaimed); OR Mastercard/Nium prove logo-only with no USDC settlement-volume traction by the Q2'26 print; OR Fed accelerates cuts, crushing the ~80% reserve-yield base. |
| HOOD | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $88.42 | Multi-leg narrative now MATURING: the prediction-market leg is SATURATED (comedy/political/state-criminalization backlash + Kalshi/Wintermute flooding in), but Trump Accounts AUC rail went LIVE May 28 and a fresh ~$20M insider buy (Meyer Malka, Jun 2) signals conviction into a CLARITY-doubt dip (Jun 1). No clean base — watchlist until a higher low reclaims the 20-EMA or… | Weekly close below 20-EMA; OR CLARITY Act stalls/dies in committee (Novogratz cut passage odds 90%→60% Jun 1), repricing the crypto take-rate leg; OR Q2 print shows event-contract take-rate compression from Kalshi/Wintermute competition. |
| MSTR | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $129.34 | The flywheel REVERSED. Strategy went from perpetual BTC buyer to net SELLER (Saylor dumped, 6/1) and the STRC financing engine is in a "death spiral" (Schiff 6/2). BTC in "purge mode" below $67K (6/3) heading toward $50K. This is a narrative BREAK, not a dip — avoid the knife. A long only re-fires on a BTC base + an 8-K showing renewed net accumulation. | Avoid-stance flips ONLY on all three: (1) weekly 8-K showing net BTC ACCUMULATION with zero sell-language, (2) BTC weekly close back above $84K, (3) MSTR weekly close above its 20-EMA. Until then every bounce is a falling-knife trap; no long, no averaging in. |
Neoclouds & BTC-to-AI compute pivots
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APLD | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $44.16 | BTC-miner→AI-infra pivot now de-risked: a SECOND hyperscaler anchor lease (2026-05-20) stacked on the $7.5B/15yr Delta Forge deal (4/23), plus a 4-analyst PT cluster to $60-70 (Lake Street/Citizens/Needham/B.Riley, 5/21-5/27). Theme ACCELERATING but crowding. [trade redacted] only on a 20-EMA retest, don't chase the top of the move. | Weekly close below 20-EMA (~$45); daily close below $40 (2026-05-20 lease breakout shelf) on volume; Any 8-K disclosing an ATM/equity raise within 14d. |
| CRWV | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $107.83 | Q1 binary resolved (beat-and-fade, mean-reverted $130s→~$104); now a choppy basing/recovery on fresh catalysts — Vera Rubin first-validation (6/1), BNP $192 initiation (6/2), NVDA stake. Earnings now Aug 11, so binary-risk DEFER reason is gone, but CRWV is still the laggard of its theme. Setup improving, not yet a clean breakout — LOW probe. | Weekly close below the ~$104 post-Q1 low = base failed, opens DA Davidson $100 → Bernstein $67 air pocket. Or the new $850M data-center junk bond prices wider than the 9.75% notes (credit refusing the recovery), or a second cohort guide-down. |
| HUT | HELD | — | [entry redacted] | thesis continuation on thesis continuation. | close < $99.18. |
| IREN | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $61.81 | BTC-miner→AI-neocloud pivot binary RESOLVED bull: 5-yr $3.4B Microsoft AI cloud contract + $3.65B investment-grade GPU financing (closed 6/1) + Dell $1.6B Blackwell supply de-risk BOTH the named-tenant question AND the ATM dilution overhang. Theme ACCELERATING, PTs ramping $61→$99 (Cantor 5/28). The miner-comp→AI-infra-comp re-rate is live — but a fresh entry now is chasing… | Weekly close back below the 2026-05-26 Dell/MSFT breakout base on >1.5x vol; OR disclosure of a Microsoft contract delay/descope; OR a new ATM equity raise >$300M priced below spot (signals the $3.65B IG debt was insufficient). |
| NBIS | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $259.66 | — | — |
| RIOT | HELD | — | [entry redacted] | thesis continuation on thesis continuation. | close < $24.30. |
Grid upgrade, transmission & conductors
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMSC | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $46.39 | Data-center grid-power pick-and-shovel; backlog +40% YoY to ~$280M, Q4 orders ~$100M. But 2026-05-28 beat sold off on soft Q1 margin guide ($0.17 adj vs $0.24 est) — gapped ~9%, then -8.8% on Jun 3 to $46.67. Narrative accelerating, price structure broken: wait for a higher low, don't chase the knife. | Weekly close below $40 (loses post-earnings shelf + April base pivot; opens path to 200-DMA / $24.87 low). Also dead if next print (est. early Aug) shows 12-mo backlog contracting from ~$280M or grid orders rolling over, or grid-power-transmission theme downgrades to SATURATED/DEAD. |
Datacenter power, cooling & thermal buildout
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $264.70 | Nuclear-baseload-for-AI narrative has gone mainstream and CEG is the crowded, mature leg: Q1 beat (2026-05-11) sold off ~3%, Third Point fully exited, and an 11M-share secondary priced at $281 (2026-06-01) caps the tape with supply overhang. No fresh entry without a pullback that holds or a NEW hyperscaler PPA / FERC co-location win. | Weekly close below [entry redacted] (200-DMA + post-Calpine gap fill), OR FERC denies the Amazon/Susquehanna co-location ISA amendment (docket ER24-2172), OR 2026 adj-EPS guide cut below the reaffirmed $11 floor. |
| SHLS | HELD | 2nd-Order AI | $12.77 | Solar-EBOS name traded as a 2nd-order AI-power play; early-May analyst cluster + Tennessee BESS facility lit the leg, now ~1 month stale with no catalyst until the ~early-August Q2 print. Range-bound $9.50–10; HOLD above the breakout base, not add-here. Jun-18 $10 call sweep is the near-term tell — decays worthless if it can't reclaim $10 into opex. | Daily close below the rising 20-EMA / May breakout base near $9.00; or repeated failure to reclaim $10 into 2026-06-18 opex (call sweep marked to zero), confirming the leg is dead. |
| VST | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $153.68 | AI-power catalyst is SPENT — Meta+AWS PPAs signed, 2026 EBITDA guide raised +~14% to $6.8–7.6B, yet VST round-tripped ~30% off the $219.82 high to a $132.66 low and now chops ~$153. No longer the anticipation trade; it's a trend-repair/reclaim setup with NO near-term binary (next print ~Aug). Theme MATURING. Don't bottom-fish — a fresh long needs a 50-DMA reclaim +… | Weekly close below $132 (May-2026 swing low) on >1.3x avg vol; OR failure to reclaim the 50-DMA (~$165) by end-July while the AI-power complex (CEG/TLN/NRG) rolls over; OR a hyperscaler Q2 capex guide-cut that re-rates the whole group lower. |
Optical networking & datacenter interconnect
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $198.81 | Optical/photonics-transceiver leader survived its ~2026-05-08 Q1 print and ran to 400%+ YTD, but the theme has flipped ACCELERATING→SATURATED: dedicated photonics ETF launched (2026-05-13), MEME/leveraged-ETF retail flows, record $1.3T margin debt, and a $600M ATM (2026-05-14) = management selling the mania. Fresh chase = peak-sentiment trap; wait for a base above rising MA… | Weekly close below the 20-week EMA on rising volume (trend kill on a +400% YTD parabola), OR photonics ETF (EUV) breaks below its launch base, OR a $600M ATM takedown disclosure followed by giving back the prior month's range on volume. |
| LITE | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $945.12 | Post-print -8.45% sell-the-news fully reversed: LITE flashed a "key trading signal" at $866.97 on 2026-06-01 and ripped +7%, reclaiming the pre-print high (dossier setup-b trigger) on Nasdaq-100 inclusion + Tiger Global buying. But a REX LITE 2X single-stock ETF (2026-05-21) and mainstream photonics-ETF debut flag late-stage retail saturation. Momentum reclaimed and… | Daily close back below ~$840 forfeits the 2026-06-01 $866.97 signal-bar reclaim; OR weekly close under the 20-EMA; OR a peer optical name (COHR/MRVL/AAOI) losing its 50-day while LITE diverges down — any one flips momentum to broken, exit. |
Nuclear & uranium for datacenter power
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCJ | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $114.02 | Earnings binary resolved bullish (Q1 sales $616M vs $495M est, EPS $0.34 beat, 2026-05-05) but the tape SOLD it — topped $135.24, bled ~23% to ~$104. Theme downgraded ACCELERATING→MATURING as spot rolls to $84.70/lb (-2.8% MoM). 2026-06-01 Cigar Lake stake-up to 57.4% signals management conviction, but structure is broken — don't chase mid-pullback; wait for a higher-low… | Weekly close below $100 (under the ~$104 May low) on expanding volume, OR uranium spot under $80/lb, OR Q2 guide cut on the Key Lake/McArthur disruption. Failure to retake $115 (lower high instead) kills the reclaim entry. |
| NNE | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $26.16 | NRC formally accepted the Kronos construction-permit app (5/20, +10.7%) and the SMCI AI-power MOU plug NNE into the nuclear-powers-AI meta-narrative — but the $400M ATM is now LIVE ($569M liquidity) and 6/03 faded 14% off $30.62 to close $26.24 (distribution). Dilution-on-strength is armed; rental/probe only, not a fresh chase. | Daily close below ~$24 (loses the post-5/20 NRC base; closed $26.24 on 6/03), OR any 424B/8-K disclosure that the $400M ATM is selling into rallies — either confirms catalysts are priced and dilution is absorbing the move. |
| OKLO | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $66.83 | Nuclear-for-AI-power narrative MATURING, not accelerating. Q1 (5/13) print made OKLO a top-10 large-cap loser; DOE plutonium win (5/26) bounced it (Goldman $66, Cantor $122); then 2026-06-03 co-founders sold $13.6M and the stock dropped 12% — textbook distribution into strength on a pre-revenue name. No clean setup; fresh entry today is a falling knife. | Any further insider Form 4 sale or ATM/S-3/424B filing within 2 weeks of the 2026-06-03 $13.6M disclosure; or weekly close below the 2026-05-18 post-Q1 digestion low; or DOE plutonium negotiations (opened 5/26) lapsing. |
| SMR | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $11.99 | Beaten-down SMR re-activated on a NEW binary: South Korea's $200B US-investment package is eyeing NuScale's Tennessee/TVA program (Doosan + Samsung C&T in talks). But the tape is pure rip-fade (+9% 6/2 → −13% 6/3 to $12.13), fundamentals are broken (Q1 rev $0.565M, −96% miss), and Citi $7 / Goldman $9 PTs sit at/below spot. Undated catalyst + no clean base = SKIP the chase;… | SK $200B-package talks close with no named NuScale allocation, or weekly close below $10 with a failed 20-EMA reclaim. RoPower FID slip past 2026-12-31 = DEAD. Engage only on a confirmed SK capital figure or a binding offtake ≥$100/MWh for ≥250 MWe. |
| UUUU | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $17.34 | Rare-earth ex-China leg is now the live driver, not uranium: UUUU printed first 99.9% Tb + ~30kg Dy oxide from US monazite and is closing the ~$300M ASM mine-to-metal deal ~late June. Stock +10.9% June 2 ($19.54) on the breakthrough, reclaiming mid-range off the ~$16 mid-May low. ACCELERATING — chase the spike only as a probe; cleaner add on a hold above the 20-EMA. | Weekly close below $16 (mid-May swing low where the rebound began) on >2x avg vol; OR ASM scheme vote fails / deal terminated at the ~late-June 2026 close; OR NdPr rolls under ~$50/kg as China relaxes export controls; OR uranium spot holds <$78 for two consecutive weeks. |
Quantum computing pure-plays
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IONQ | MEDIUM | Retail Squeeze | $64.36 | Quantum re-rated by REAL capital: $2B CHIPS Act + Trump-admin equity stakes (WSJ 2026-05-21) drove IONQ past $63 (2026-05-26); Q1 blowout (+755% YoY, 2026-05-06) confirmed fundamentals. Now MATURING — rally cooled, short interest spiking, Quantinuum IPO ($14.3B, 2026-06-03) threatens the pure-play premium. don't chase fresh into froth. | Q2 sequential revenue decline vs Q1 $64.67M or FY guide cut from [entry redacted]–270M. Or IONQ excluded from the $2B CHIPS equity-stake awards while peers are included (unwinds the 2026-05-26 pop). |
| QBTS | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $27.46 | Government-bet leg ($2B CHIPS / $100M Commerce LOI, 5/21) is now DIGESTED, not fresh. Sell-side caught up with triple $40 PTs (6/2), QTUM ETF hit $5B = mainstream, short interest spiking, Quantinuum IPO (6/3) adds equity supply. Theme MATURING→saturating. a6 squeeze; fresh entry ONLY on pullback to the gap base — no chasing the $40-PT mania. | Daily close back below the ~$20 May-20 pre-announcement base = government-bet gap filled and failed. OR a new ATM/shelf take-down 8-K beyond the $100M Commerce issuance. OR QTUM ETF rolls over + the quantum cohort prints lower lows together (theme→DEAD). |
| QUBT | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $11.18 | Quantum theme MATURING after the 2026-05-21 $2B CHIPS blow-off — and QUBT was NOT one of the 9 funded names. Faded to ~$11.34 (off $25.84 52w high), May-12 200-DMA reclaim failing. Quantinuum's $14.3B IPO (~2026-06-05) drains capital to the flagship. Beta-only laggard, no accelerating leg to buy. | Flip to interest ONLY on a weekly close back above the ~$13-14 200-DMA on a QUBT-specific catalyst (TFLN customer 8-K or direct federal award, or rule_7 options confirmation). Hard SKIP on any 424B5/S-3 ATM filing, or if the QNT IPO drains the sector bid and QUBT loses the ~$10 shelf. |
| RGTI | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $23.58 | Government-stake leg (2026-05-21 $2B CHIPS quantum push) already fired and cooled inside 4 sessions; theme tipping MATURING→SATURATED (QTUM ETF $5B AUM, short interest spiking, insider selling, IBM $10B + Quantinuum $14.3B IPO commoditizing the pure-play). No fresh RGTI-specific catalyst in 30d — chasing the cooled pop is the trap. LOW probe only. | Weekly close back below the 2026-05-22 breakout pivot, OR any ATM-issuance 8-K filed during strength (historic basket top-tell), OR QBTS closing below its 20-EMA (basket leader rolls first). |
Analog, RF components & compound-semi materials/test
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEHR | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $116.72 | — | — |
| AXTI | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $106.09 | InP-substrate pick-and-shovel for the AI optical-interconnect boom. Q1 (4/30) inflected: InP >50% of rev, record $100M backlog, Q2 guided to first profitability in years. Theme ACCELERATING (NVIDIA $4B optics bet, photonics ETF). Stock -28% off $143 ATH to ~$105 = pullback to rising 20-EMA, not a broken setup. We missed the $64→$143 leg; buy the higher-low reclaim of… | Daily close below $90 (loses rising 20-EMA/base) = pullback became distribution, abort. Or Q2 (7/29) revenue under the $34M guide, or InP backlog shrinks QoQ from the $100M record. |
| IQE | LOW | Legacy Pivot | n/a | Binary resolved: the £81m MACOM-led strategic raise (28 May 2026, 19.8p) killed the going-concern/dilution overhang and flipped the story from dying handset-epi to InP-for-AI-datacenter optical — Photonics +15%, FY2026 guided >20% growth + EBITDA inflection. Legacy-pivot re-rate, but the May relief pop is done and there's no near-term catalyst: MATURING setup, buy the… | OR FY2026 >20% revenue-growth guide cut in any trading update; OR Photonics revenue down half-on-half at H1 2026 interims (~Sept 2026). |
| TSEM | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $261.02 | Q1 print (2026-05-13) confirmed the bull case — operating profit ~doubled on AI tailwinds, GM expanded, Q2 guide raised, stock +17%. Theme ACCELERATING, but sell-side caught up (PTs $300–335, 2026-05-14) and the catalyst is spent; next binary is Q2 print ~early Aug. Want a higher-low / 20-EMA pullback for clean re-entry, not a 2-months-early chase. | Weekly close back below the ~$255 May-13 earnings-gap base (failed post-beat breakout — verify exact 20-EMA before sizing), OR any Q2 guide walk-back / RF-SOI inventory-reset commentary from QCOM/AVGO. Either kills the acceleration thesis. |
Space launch, satellites & defense-tech
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | MEDIUM | Retail Squeeze | $106.52 | — | — |
| PL | HELD | Emergent | $42.31 | Space-cluster theme now MATURING→edge-of-SATURATED (UFO ETF $1B AUM, NASA-ETF mania) with the ~6/12 SpaceX debut the likely sell-the-news peak. cut on any soft bookings. | Soft/missed Q1 print tonight (rev <~$84M or weak FY27 guide); OR daily close below $42 (loses $42.48 breakout shelf); OR SpaceX ~6/12 debut prints sell-the-news and the cluster (RKLB/ASTS) rolls over. |
How To Read This Bench
- Conviction / status is the engine's current tag, not a recommendation. LOW = interesting but the setup isn't here yet; HELD = on the active research bench as a continuation idea.
- Archetype is the playbook the dossier engine assigns (Dominant Narrative, Picks & Shovels, 2nd-Order AI, Legacy Pivot, Binary Catalyst, Retail Squeeze, Emergent).
- "Watching for" is the concrete public level or event that confirms the entry or invalidates the thesis — analyst price targets, technical bases, catalyst dates. Never positioning.
Research only. No positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed. Per-name prices are reads via FMP (Alpaca fallback) as of 2026-06-05; theses and levels are drawn from the live ticker dossiers.