Watchlist · live, names only
What the model is reading next.
Updated ·
Refreshed every trading day latest 2026-07-17. Regime RISK-ON (SPY +8.0% over its 200-EMA, VIX 15.67 / calm, breadth 64.3% of names above their 200-EMA). This is a research note names, theses, and the levels we're watching. Not advice, not positions. Per-name prices are current reads via FMP (a US exchange fallback) as of 2026-07-17.
This is the active research bench, built from the live ticker dossiers (status WATCHLIST / HELD with a real thesis). It tracks what we're watching and why the theme, the archetype, the conviction tag, and the level that would invalidate the thesis. It does not disclose positioning.
AI chips & memory
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $495.76 | MI450/Helios rack-scale plus EPYC agentic-CPU narrative drove ATHs near $561.80 (7/1), but the July target cluster ($600 BNP, $620 BofA, $725 high) is arriving into a falling tape 20-day MA lost 7/8, chip-led Nasdaq selloff 7/17, sentiment into Fear. Sell-side catch-up after the move, with the 8/4 print as the binary. | A weekly close below $500 forfeits the early-June breakout shelf and ends the acceleration leg; secondary condition is AI-silicon breadth diverging further (memory leading, GPU/CPU designers lagging) with the upgrade-revision cascade drying up after the ~2026-08-04 print. |
| AVGO | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $370.82 | July recovery read failed: SOXX -18.6% MTD (worst month since 2008) with Apple's $30B deal, a record $7.1B ETF inflow and TSMC's record Q2 all sold into. Backlog intact, tape distributing theme now MATURING, and the four hyperscaler capex guides ~2026-07-28 to 07-31 are the near-term binary. | A weekly close below $355 loses the June post-Q2 reaction-low shelf and converts the correction into a structural de-rate; secondary breaks are a flat-or-lower hyperscaler capex guide in the ~2026-07-28 to 2026-07-31 earnings cluster, or a confirmed Google/Meta next-gen custom-silicon socket loss to Marvell. |
| MTUM | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $302.09 | The AI-memory leg MTUM rotated into at the May reconstitution has rolled over: SOX -20%+ from its June peak, memory names in a bear market, and the fund closed $302.09 on 2026-07-17, below the $310 shelf that defined the post-reconstitution base. With ~36% in the semi complex and no rebalance until November, this is a falling-knife AI-hardware proxy with a lagged exit. | A weekly close below $296 (loses the mid-July shelf) opens the gap toward the rising 200-day near $270 and confirms the AI-memory leg the fund now expresses is in a full unwind; an Intel miss on 2026-07-23 or a soft Lam Research guide on 2026-07-29 that extends the semi-cap derating seals it. |
| MU | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $848.95 | HBM scarcity intact SK Hynix sees shortage into the next decade, Qualcomm/Hyundai auto deals signed 2026-07-16, US push to ban Chinese memory but the tape broke: SOXX −18.6% in July, worst month since 2008, and the $854.50 shelf failed. At 6.2x forward the setup is cycle-timing, not momentum; no higher low yet. | A weekly close below $690 confirms the July breakdown is a cycle top rather than a reset, putting the 6.2x forward multiple on earnings due to be revised down. Secondary: a confirmed CXMT/YMTC capacity IPO, or the proposed US ban on Chinese memory chips being publicly shelved. |
| SIMO | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $264.32 | NAND-controller toll-booth on the steepest flash shortage in ~15 years: TrendForce H1 2026 contract +>100% cumulative, H2 still rising with no capacity adds. Q1 record +105% YoY, sell-side chasing to $400/$450. Fundamental leg ACCELERATING, but the tape is digesting a 4x into insider selling the 2026-07-29 Q2 print is the next binary. | A weekly close below $255 turns the $355→low-$300s digestion into a top and loses the post-Q1 breakout base; secondary confirmation would be H2 2026 NAND/NOR contract pricing flattening sequentially in the TrendForce updates, or the memory-shortage theme rolling to SATURATED. |
| STX | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $787.66 | Maturing AI-storage supercycle with sell-side still chasing: Wells Fargo upgrade to Overweight $1,100 (7/10) and Citi Street-high $1,240 (7/13). But the DRAM ETF is down ~30% and Seagate's Q4 FY26 print ~2026-07-22 is a binary about two trading days out a late, crowded name gated by earnings. | A weekly close below $780 (loses the June breakout base and the low end of raised sell-side targets); a Q4 FY26 guide (~2026-07-22) that walks back nearline pricing or exabyte growth would confirm the theme flipping to saturated. |
| WDC | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $477.22 | The AI memory/storage supercycle that re-rated WDC has flipped from accelerating to breaking: the DRAM ETF is down ~30% in under a month (2026-07-13), CXMT's $10B Shanghai IPO (2026-07-15) plus SK Hynix/Samsung supply signals revived China-competition and oversupply fears, and Citi/Wells Fargo PT hikes to $800/$730 now chase a falling tape. Fiscal Q4 prints ~2026-07-30 into… | A weekly close below $400 surrenders the post-Micron-blowout base and confirms the memory-complex downtrend; secondary confirmation is the DRAM complex extending its bear-market drawdown and setting a lower low after the ~2026-07-30 print. |
AI datacenter infrastructure
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $396.40 | Enterprise AI-server rebuild intact fundamentally (+757% YoY AI-server revenue), but the tape broke: 2026-07-15 reversed 13% from near-record high to $397 as the memory complex and SMCI sold off. Lower high vs the $475.40 ATH, momentum books exited in 24h, and no dated catalyst until Q2 FY27 in late August. | A weekly close below $374 loses the June recovery base and confirms the 2026-06-02 $475.40 high as a cycle top; secondary break is the ai-datacenter-infrastructure theme flipping to SATURATED as the server/memory correction extends without a replacement leg. |
| SNX | HELD | 2nd-Order AI | $242.62 | Q2 blowout (rev $19.575B vs the published invalidation levelB est, 6/25) broke the seasonal guide-down bear case and the sell-side is chasing higher (MS $374, UBS $352). The channel re-rating is now confirmed by fundamentals, but the catalyst is spent and the next binary is ~3 months out current levels chase the post-earnings gap rather than buy the setup. | A a daily close below the published invalidation level fills the post-earnings gap and confirms the momentum leg is done, reopening the $246 gap base; a secondary break is the enterprise-AI channel theme flipping to SATURATED as the upgrade cluster exhausts and DELL/HPE/NTAP roll over together. |
ai-enterprise-software
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPE | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $45.82 | AI-server and enterprise-networking pivot is real at the theme level, but HPE's own chart broke: the record +25% Q2 FY26 blowoff (2026-06-02, ATH $64.25) fully round-tripped, the ~$48 pre-print shelf failed (last observed close $43.71 on 6/26), and nothing is dated until the Q3 print in early September. A fresh buy here catches the breakdown, not a base. | A weekly close below $42.00 confirms the failed blowoff and loss of the last shelf under the June range, opening the pre-earnings gap zone; secondarily, the AI-server theme flipping to SATURATED with no HPE-specific catalyst before the ~early-September Q3 print. |
| NTAP | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $163.88 | NetApp's first genuine AI re-rating (2026-05-28 Q4 print) is now digesting the ~35% gap to $192.83 has round-tripped to the ~$150 breakout-retest zone by 2026-06-26. FY27 revenue guided only +8%, no company binary until ~late-August Q1. Maturing AI-storage laggard to DELL/HPE; whether it holds the reclaimed 26-year ceiling ($148.63) decides the next leg. | A weekly close below $142 loses the May AI-breakout shelf and rising 20-EMA, turning the round-trip into a fully failed breakout; a secondary break is the theme flipping to saturated as DELL/HPE lose leadership, or a FY27 guide cut exposing sub-8% normalized growth. |
Crypto exchanges & financials
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $157.12 | Stablecoin leg is being marked down: JPMorgan cut COIN/CRCL EPS on 2026-07-14 over Hyperliquid economics, and Piper cut to $155 on 07-15, breaking the old $180 bear anchor. Offsetting it, a Senate CLARITY Act vote is flagged for the week of 07-24 with sentiment washed out (crypto social activity at 12-month lows). Range-bound 1.5-2.5x BTC beta until price reclaims $185. | A weekly close below $142 (loses the Baird downside anchor and the last published Street floor outside the $99 outlier) confirms the next beta leg lower; a secondary break is the CLARITY Act Senate window passing without a vote, which removes the only dated catalyst in the next 30 days. |
| CRCL | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $60.46 | OCC national trust-bank approval (2026-07-10, +12% to ~$70.82) fully round-tripped in three sessions $60.46 on 2026-07-17, below the $63 pre-news close. Open USD, a 140-firm consortium including Visa, Mastercard and Coinbase, launches H2'26 passing reserve yield to distributors, attacking the ~80%-of-revenue NII model. Mizuho cut to Underperform $50. Best-case catalyst… | A weekly close below $58 confirms the failed OCC round-trip and opens Mizuho's $50 target and the $49.90 52-week low; secondarily, a Q2'26 print (~2026-08-11 est.) showing USDC circulation below the the published invalidation levelB Q1 mark with sequentially lower reserve income confirms the Open USD / Hyperliquid margin-compression case. |
| HOOD | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $99.96 | Tokenization/crypto-exchange leg still intact Robinhood Chain driving real on-chain ETH volume and Goldman raising to $137 (7/16) but CLARITY Act odds fell to 35%, Trump Accounts reframed as a 6.5M-vs-70M shortfall, and ARK is selling. The 2026-07-29 Q2 print is the binary that resolves it. | A weekly close below $98 breaks the early-July acceleration base and negates the 7/11 golden-cross reclaim; secondary break is a Q2 print on 2026-07-29 showing sequential DART or crypto take-rate deceleration, or the CLARITY Act vote window passing without floor action. |
| MSTR | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $94.85 | Bitcoin-treasury flywheel is mathematically shut: basic mNAV 0.62x (7/6) means issuing equity now destroys BTC-per-share, and Strategy raised $467M on 7/13 while buying zero bitcoin. Capital funds a 12% STRC coupon and a $3B reserve instead of accumulation. Q2 print 7/30, one day after FOMC, is the binary. | A weekly close below $85 breaks the July $88–90 shelf and confirms the sub-NAV discount is still widening; secondary confirmation is the 2026-07-30 Q2 print showing another quarter of net BTC sales with basic mNAV still under 1.0x, or BTC losing $60,000. |
Cybersecurity
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKTA | HELD | Emergent | $149.35 | Identity-security re-rating entering a second, sell-side-led leg: a post-print upgrade wave (KeyBanc street-high $175 on 07-10, Scotiabank upgrade to $165 on 07-06) is still building six weeks after the 05-29 beat-and-raise, lifting the top target 17% in a month. Theme ACCELERATING; the risk is extension and hot retail into a digested 52-week-high gap. | A weekly close below $110 (loses the post-earnings breakout shelf and the rising 20-EMA), optionally confirmed by a cRPO/billings/net-new-seat deceleration at the ~2026-08-26 print that resets the multiple. |
defense-aerospace
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRCY | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $96.08 | Defense-electronics turnaround re-rating inside an accelerating modernization tape: Q3 FY26 (2026-05-06) printed record bookings $348M (+73.7% YoY), 1.48 book-to-bill, record ~$1.6B backlog and +46% EBITDA, with FCF guided positive. But the stock just reversed ~16% off its $128.45 ATH; the ~2026-08-10 Q4/full-year print is the next binary. | A weekly close below $94 loses the breakout base and rising 50-day shelf that define the advance. Secondary: a Q4 FY26 print (~2026-08-10) with free cash flow not turning positive or book-to-bill under 1, or the defense-electronics theme flipping to saturated as KTOS/AVAV roll over. |
Fintech & consumer credit
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAVE | HELD | Emergent | $440.42 | AI-underwriting neobank re-accelerating as the sell-side chases the June breakout Benchmark to $475 (7/1), Citizens to $450 (7/9) after the ATH at $318.66. Q1 rev +47% to $158.4M on a record-low 1.69% past-due; the Coastal bank-funding deal removed the balance-sheet overhang. Extended into a catalyst vacuum until the ~Aug 12 Q2 print, which is the next binary and where… | A weekly close below $293 loses the June breakout shelf and ends the momentum leg; secondary breaks are the 28-day past-due rate re-expanding above ~2.5% on the Aug 12 Q2 print (breaks the CashAI edge) or the fintech-consumer-credit theme flipping to saturated. |
| SEZL | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $174.67 | BNPL reacceleration is real Q1 beat and a same-year FY26 guide raise (2026-05-06) but the consumer-fintech theme has cooled to MATURING as sell-side turns cautious: Oppenheimer cut to Perform 2026-06-29, TD Cowen stays Hold 2026-07-07 despite lifting its PT to $165. Lone leader with no peer bid, +130% YTD into a ~2026-08-05 Q2 print. Strong story, late-stage tape. | A weekly close below $130 loses the June breakout shelf and the rising intermediate trend; confirmation if the consumer-fintech theme flips SATURATED or the ~2026-08-05 Q2 print misses the $135.5M revenue / $1.11B GMV baseline. |
freight-logistics
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCB | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $159.81 | LTL-recovery narrative is maturing and now fighting a company crack: ArcBest's July 16 restructuring 2% headcount cut, $76.5M impairment, brand simplification signals the freight-cycle upturn hasn't reached its own P&L, with the July 29 Q2 print the binary that resolves self-help vs demand miss. | A a daily close below the published invalidation level loses the June breakout base and rising 20-EMA, turning the pullback into a trend reversal; confirmed if the July 29 Q2 print misses ~$1.14B revenue or shows LTL tonnage rolling over. |
| JBHT | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $291.41 | Freight-recovery narrative is now consensus 8+ analyst PT hikes to $280–329 in 30 days plus a CNBC transports spotlight mark a MATURING, crowded theme. The 2026-07-15 Q2 print ($1.71 EPS / $3.21B est.) is the binary that either confirms the volume re-acceleration or breaks the whole transport trade. | A weekly close below $235 breaks the freight-recovery structure and the neutral-analyst floor; a secondary trigger is a Q2 print (2026-07-15) guiding intermodal volumes flat-to-down, or a second downgrade following Morgan Stanley that flips the transport theme to saturated. |
| RXO | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $29.29 | Freight-cycle recovery intact; sell-side has fully caught up into a $20–35 battleground bears $20 (Goldman 07-16, Susquehanna 07-14), bulls $30–35 (BMO $35 initiation 07-14, Stifel/Truist/Citi $30). Narrative matured from mispriced to consensus; the ~2026-08-05 Q2 print (adj EBITDA guide the published invalidation level–37M vs $6M Q1) is the binary the whole re-rate discounts. | A weekly close below $24 loses the May–June breakout shelf and consolidation base; secondary breaks are Q2 adjusted EBITDA (~2026-08-05) printing below the the published invalidation level–37M guide floor, or the RXO Curve spot index rolling over. |
| XPO | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $215.02 | Freight-cycle upturn is the accelerating narrative: LTL volume and contract pricing re-accelerating after a multi-year trucking recession, with SAIA May tonnage +8.4% confirming the cluster. XPO layers operating-ratio self-help (Q1 LTL OR 83.9%, -200bps YoY) on top. The 2026-07-30 Q2 print is the binary that validates or breaks the "comfortably ahead" yield guide. | A weekly close below $190 breaks the ascending structure off the $116.68 52-week low and opens the path to the 200-day near $168; secondary confirmation is Q2 LTL operating ratio deteriorating YoY on the 2026-07-30 print or peer tonnage (SAIA/ODFL) rolling back over. |
GPU cloud & neoclouds
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APLD | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $25.79 | Operating story and equity have decoupled: >1 GW contracted and ~$31B backlog, yet the stock halved from $49.65 (2026-05-28) to $25.79 (2026-07-17) on a ~$2.7B debt load, widening GAAP losses and CoreWeave concentration. Price now sits on the $25.56 April base with the 2026-07-27 FY26 print as the binary. Trend broken; stand aside into the print. | A weekly close below $25 confirms loss of the post-April-earnings base floor near $25.56 and opens the $20 zone; secondary breaks: an equity raise or ATM reactivation disclosed on or after the 2026-07-27 FY26 call, a Polaris Forge lease cancellation, or a CoreWeave counterparty downgrade. |
| IREN | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $33.62 | Neocloud re-rate has fully round-tripped: $33.62 close 7/17, -42% in 30 days, late-May Microsoft breakout base surrendered. Contracts intact ($9.7B MSFT, prepaid tranches) but Q3 AI revenue was only $17.3M vs a $3.4B ARR ambition, and Nvidia/Meta moving into direct compute sales plus the $800M CEO grant fight have flipped the theme to a live de-rating. | A weekly close below $30 completes the round-trip of the Microsoft-reveal re-rate and puts the spring base in the $20s in play. Secondary breaks: the Anthropic Australian tender awarded entirely to CDC/AirTrunk/NextDC/Stack, or Q4 FY26 AI cloud revenue failing to scale meaningfully above the $17.3M Q3 level. |
Industrial power & grid
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMSC | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $33.02 | Grid/advanced-conductor supplier to data-center and utility power; backlog still +40% YoY (~$280M), but the tape kept breaking after the 2026-05-28 beat-and-soft-guide and a late-June Russell index removal piled on passive selling. Now ~$35.59, well under the lost $40 shelf, theme matured to a value-trap shape stand aside until it bases. Next binary is the ~Aug 5 Q1 print. | A weekly close below $33 breaks the early-July shelf (~$34.50 lows) and opens the path to the $25.28 52-week low / declining 200-DMA. Also dead if the ~Aug 5 Q1 print shows 12-month backlog contracting from ~$280M or grid orders rolling over, or if the grid-power-transmission theme flips to saturated. |
| ATEX | HELD | Emergent | $100.35 | Private-wireless 900 MHz spectrum re-rating that converted from FCC policy to a first full-year GAAP profit ($18.52M) and an activated buyback; the 6→10 MHz catalyst is banked and price is extended at fresh highs, so the next leg rides deal-flow signings and momentum rotation into the ~early-August Q1 FY2027 print rather than a new scheduled catalyst. | A weekly close below $67 forfeits the post-earnings breakout above the old $67.19 52-week high; secondary break if the squeeze-momentum theme rolls to SATURATED with no new utility signings before the ~early-August Q1 FY2027 print, or the the published invalidation levelM buyback lapses 2026-09-21 unused. |
| VST | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $155.44 | Power-for-AI story intact but the tape is not: ~$155.67 (2026-07-17) sits on a $154 50-DMA that is still below a declining ~$172 200-DMA, 29% under the $219.81 high, while CNBC Final Trades name it four times in a month. Aug 7 Q2 print is the only real binary; no edge in owning the chop into it. | A weekly close below $148 forfeits the June bounce shelf and re-opens the $132.66 May low; secondarily, an Aug 7 Q2 print that reaffirms rather than raises the $6.72–7.52B FY26 EBITDA guide removes the last un-priced company catalyst. |
Managed care & health services
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNC | HELD | Emergent | $66.44 | Managed-care margin recovery off the 2025 ACA blowup is largely priced (+137% off the $25.08 low into the low-$60s). The fresher driver is 2027 repricing ~14% ACA rate-hike filings (WSJ 2026-07-08) signal a hot medical-cost trend that pressures 2026 HBR before rates reset. The ~2026-07-28 Q2 print is the binary that settles recovery vs cost-catch-up. Theme MATURING→SATURATED. | A weekly close below $52 loses the May breakout shelf and the rising 20-week EMA, flipping the structure from recovery to rollover; a Q2 Medicaid HBR blowout above guide on ~2026-07-28 alongside the theme flipping SATURATED confirms the cost trend is winning. |
| HUM | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $400.00 | Medicare Advantage margin-recovery re-rate; the 2027 CMS +2.48% rate print doubled HUM off $163, but the discovery catalyst is spent and price ~$382 sits above the $304 average target. The ~2026-07-30 Q2 print is now the binary inside the window a chase at all-time highs, not a fresh setup. | A weekly close below $305 loses the June breakout-retest shelf and the doubled-off-the-low structure; a secondary break comes if the managed-care theme flips to saturation (UNH/CVS roll over) or the star-ratings appeal is lost, keeping 2027 quality-bonus dollars impaired. |
| OSCR | HELD | Binary Catalyst | $29.10 | Margin-recovery re-rate has carried the ACA pure-play leader to new highs, clearing the $30.38 prior 52-wk high on the +11% July 1 break with managed-care breadth (CNC/MOH/AGL) accelerating. But at $30.54 it trades ~28% above the $23.8 consensus target into the Aug 6 Q2 binary a late-leg continuation, not a pre-consensus entry. | A weekly close below $25 loses the June breakout base and drops OSCR back into its prior $10.69–$25.58 range; secondary breaks are the managed-care theme flipping to saturated, or a Q2 MLR print above the 83.4% FY ceiling on Aug 6. |
Medtech & diagnostics
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNGE | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $87.09 | Digital-MSK profitability re-rate broke out in May and was pushed into open price discovery by the 2026-06-09 mid-quarter raise (Q2 to $200–202M, +45%; FY26 to $818–824M). But nine sell-side target hikes in two weeks plus accelerating insider selling mark a late, distribution-prone phase, with no company catalyst until the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print. | A weekly close below $58 forfeits the June breakout above the $62.18 prior ATH and drops the tape back into its nine-month range; secondary breaks are the digital-MSK theme rolling to SATURATED or the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print landing under the raised $200–202M revenue floor. |
| TXG | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $43.74 | Stalled single-cell franchise re-rating on the spatial/multiomics pivot: Atera (ships H2 2026), Proteintech protein capability, and a Cleveland Clinic clinical tie-up extend the story while a July cluster of analyst target raises ($40–$50) chases the tape. Atera revenue is a 2027 event and the name is overbought above consensus the 2026-08-06 Q2 print is the next real test. | A weekly close below $35 loses the June breakout shelf (prior 52-week high $35.65) and negates the re-rate leg; secondary: the spatial-tools theme flipping to saturated (peer downgrades, ILMN/A/BRKR stalling) or Atera H2-2026 shipments slipping into 2027. |
Mega-cap AI platforms
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $646.01 | Narrative flipped from capex-defense to compute-monetization: a reported $10B/2yr Anthropic data-center lease (7/17-7/18) turns Meta's buildout into contracted external revenue, confirmed by NBIS and IREN derating on "Meta Compute" competition. But it's a recovery off the ~$577 June low into a ~7/29 Q2 binary, during a China-AI-shock tech rout, with EU DSA fine risk live. | A weekly close below $575 forfeits the June-low recovery base and re-opens the downtrend from ~$790; secondary: the reported $10B Anthropic compute deal being denied or shelved, Q2 (2026-07-29) ad revenue decelerating below +15% YoY, or the EU DSA finding converting to a formal 6%-of-revenue fine. |
| PLTR | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $132.38 | Deployment-layer story still funds a Buy consensus (~$181 avg PT, Ives the published invalidation level), but the June-July bounce off the $106.37 low stalled under $135 and rolled to $131.75 (2026-07-17) with the 200-DMA ~$156 overhead. Franco-German Arcadia sovereignty push is a new structural bear input. Q2 print 2026-08-03 AMC is the binary. | A a daily close below the published invalidation level fails the mid-July bounce structure and re-opens the $106.37 June low; secondary: a Q2 print on 2026-08-03 with US commercial revenue growth decelerating below 60% YoY (from +133% in Q1), or a second NATO member formally selecting Arcadia over Maven. |
| TSLA | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $380.84 | Optimus/Robotaxi leg is expanding geographically (Miami + Texas fleet, BofA $460) but the tape broke down anyway the Musk-complex bid inverted as SPCX retreats from post-IPO highs, ARKK bleeds assets, and Chinese brands took a record 16.5% UK share. Contested narrative walking into a ~7/23 Q2 binary. | A weekly close below $360 gives up the early-July recovery base and confirms the down-leg; secondary confirms are the Q2 delivery milestone missing on continued European share loss, or any FSD class-certification / HW3-retrofit ruling. |
Networking & optical
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $102.41 | Parabola fully broken: ~$101.58 on 2026-07-18 is -57% from the $233.67 high, and the $150 shelf that defined the uptrend is long gone. Fundamentals still accelerating (FY26 guide >$1.1B) but insiders sold ~$17M into the top and the 2026-08-06 Q2 print is now the binary that decides base vs. next leg down. | A weekly close below $91 (loses the 2026-07-18 intraday flush low of $91.50) confirms the unwind has another leg and voids the base-building case; a secondary condition is the 2026-08-06 Q2 print cutting the FY26 >$1.1B guide or flagging a hyperscaler order push-out. |
| LITE | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $732.82 | Optical-AI picks-and-shovels leader: the post-print -8.45% sell-the-news fully reversed and LITE led the tape to fresh records into June. Theme still ACCELERATING with cluster confirmation, but the 2026-06-09 cohort crater (Marvell -12%, Nasdaq-100 -3.3%) exposed high-beta fragility while saturation tells keep stacking (2X single-stock ETF, photonics ETF, congress trackers,… | Weekly close losing the rising 20-EMA and the ~$840 post-reclaim shelf (forfeits the 2026-06-01 $866.97 signal-bar reclaim); OR a peer optical name (MRVL/COHR/AAOI) losing its 50-day while LITE diverges lower either flips momentum to broken. |
Nuclear & uranium
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCJ | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $85.62 | The $100 shelf broke market cap $44.79B (06-29) to $38.27B (07-16), roughly $88/share, ~35% off the $135.24 January high, and it fell through the best nuclear headline flow of the cycle (NJ's $24B AP1000 plan, the $17.5B federal loan program). Barclays cut to Equal-Weight, PT $104 (07-16). Theme MATURING, structure twice-broken; nothing to do until a higher-low reclaim of… | A weekly close below $85 turns the broken structure into a trending decline (loses the July shelf and opens the 2025 base), with a Q2 guidance cut below the 19.5–21.5M lb U3O8 range on the ~2026-07-31 print as the confirming fundamental. A failed reclaim attempt at ~$104 on thin volume marks the third lower high. |
| CEG | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $252.39 | Nuclear-for-AI narrative has broken down, not paused: -35% in H1 2026, 52-wk low $228.63 (07-01) on the Calpine lock-up release, then NY's 2026-07-14 statewide moratorium on ≥50MW data centers froze co-location upside across CEG's biggest state footprint. Sell-side targets ($296–$305) sit ~20% above spot and will be cut toward it. Stabilization story, no acceleration until… | A weekly close below $228 takes out the 2026-07-01 capitulation low and confirms the second Calpine lock-up tranche is being distributed with no marginal buyer. Secondary: a second PJM state adopting New York's ≥50MW moratorium framework, or a 2026 adj-EPS guide cut below the $11 floor at the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print. |
| NNE | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $16.03 | Nuclear-microreactor narrative has stopped converting news into demand: a Truist Hold/$22 initiation (7/14) and a Virginia consortium announcement (7/17) landed inside four sessions and NNE still printed a fresh 52-week low at $15.78 (7/16), losing the prior $18.04 floor. Broken structure, $400M ATM armed against a ~$844M cap, first KRONOS revenue ~FY2030. Stand aside until… | A weekly close below $15.78 confirms the fresh 52-week low as a breakdown rather than a washout and opens undiscovered downside; secondarily, any 424B or 8-K disclosing ATM share sales into a bounce confirms dilution is capping every rally. |
| OKLO | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $41.11 | Momentum leg is dead: OKLO sliced its 52-week floor at $44.16 on 2026-07-16 to $41.03 (-79% from the Oct-2025 $193.84 peak, -28% in a month) and capital is rotating to peers. Everything now hangs on one dated binary Groves reactor criticality targeted before 2026-07-31. Miss it and the de-rating continues; hit it and a zero-revenue name finally has an operating asset. | A weekly close below $41 (loses the 2026-07-16 capitulation low of $41.03) confirms the de-rating has no floor; secondary break if the Groves criticality target passes 2026-07-31 undelivered, or a 424B takedown lands off the $1B S-3 / $400M ATM. |
Quantum computing
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IONQ | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $34.78 | The gov-capital quantum leg has broken. IONQ lost the $44 spring base and then $40, is on a seven-week losing streak and ~36% off its June level, as Wolfpack's Pentagon-earmark thesis reasserted and Morgan Stanley cut its stake below 5%. Inverse quantum ETFs up to +108% mark an active unwind into an unconfirmed early-August Q2 print. No entry here. | A weekly close below $36 confirms the breakdown extends toward the $30 shelf and ends any base-building case. Secondary: a Q2 print (est. 2026-08-05 to 08-12) with revenue under the $65M guide low, or an FY cut from $260–270M. |
| QBTS | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $16.73 | The policy leg is done: QBTS lost the $20 shelf on 2026-07-13 and sits near $16.70, -29.4% MTD and ~64% off the $46.75 high, with the whole quantum cohort printing lower lows and inverse quantum ETFs up to +108%. Sell-side still carries a $37.39 average target into a $12.4M TTM revenue base. Stand aside; the 2026-08-06 Q2 print is the next real information event. | A weekly close below $12.75 breaks the 52-week floor and confirms the theme has moved from correction to full unwind, voiding any re-accumulation read. Secondary: the 2026-08-06 Q2 print showing revenue below Q1's $2.86M, or a new ATM/shelf take-down beyond the $100M Commerce issuance. |
| RGTI | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $14.11 | Quantum pure-play basket is in outright hype-cycle deflation: RGTI ~$14.19 (2026-07-17), -27% MoM, and the $14 shelf that held the May CHIPS-stake gap and the June executive-order pop has broken. Inverse quantum ETFs printing +108% and the Quantinuum IPO landing into the tape mark late-cycle supply. No company binary until the Q2 print ~2026-08-10. Avoid fresh entries. | A weekly close below $12.53 takes out the 52-week low and confirms the quantum pure-play theme has gone from saturated to dead, with no bid until a company-specific contract event; corroborating tells would be an ATM-issuance 8-K filed into any bounce, or the ~2026-08-10 Q2 print passing without a named Fortune-500 Cepheus customer. |
Semi foundry & equipment
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEHR | HIGH | Picks & Shovels | $81.05 | Q4 FY26 (2026-07-14) beat at $0.11 adj EPS vs $(0.01) est, but the re-rating driver is the FY27 revenue guide of $130-150M vs $85.1M consensus a 53-76% blowout that compresses ~65x trailing sales to ~15x forward. Stock gapped +29% to ~the published invalidation level; the binary that capped it all spring has cleared, plus $8M of new SiC orders and a second photonics follow-on. | A weekly close below $80 says the guidance gap is being distributed and puts price back inside the pre-print base; secondarily, any push-out or reduction of FY2027 deliveries from the lead hyperscale customer, or a walk-back off the $130-150M guide at the Q1 FY27 print (~2026-10, est.). |
| ASML | HIGH | Picks & Shovels | $1747.58 | EUV-monopoly narrative accelerating through the cleared 2026-07-16 Q2 binary: the guided-down quarter drew same-day target raises to $2,100–$2,500 (JPM, Wells, RBC), and ASML is pushing equipment price increases through TSMC resistance while expanding capacity. Sole-source pricing power exercised against its largest customer is the leg being bought here. | A weekly close below $1,700 loses the pre-print consolidation shelf and turns the post-earnings breakout into a failed expansion; secondary confirmation would be public news that TSMC forced withdrawal of the planned equipment price increases, or an FY2026 guide cut beneath the €36B floor. |
| AXTI | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $45.86 | InP substrate supplier one layer upstream of AI optical interconnect fundamentals still accelerating on the 7/2 Coherent master supply deal ($22.29M prepay) and $100M backlog, but the tape has round-tripped >50% off the $143 ATH toward the $64.25 April secondary price. Broken structure, improving story; the ~7/31 Q2 print (first profit in years) is the binary. | A weekly close below $64 (the April secondary at $64.25 failing as support) retraces the entire post-raise advance and opens the low-$50s; the story also breaks if the ~2026-07-31 Q2 print lands under the $34M revenue guide or the record $100M InP backlog declines QoQ. |
| TSEM | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $234.10 | Optical-foundry leg re-rated on the 2026-06-18 5M-coherent-PIC Marvell shipment and 2026-06-15 IQE InP deal, but both are digested, sell-side re-rated to $300–335 on 2026-05-14, and no company catalyst lands before the ~early-August Q2 print an accelerating theme met by a mid-move, late-confirmation entry. | A weekly close below $228 (loses the 2026-06-09 swing low that defended the May earnings-gap base); secondary break if the AI-networking-optics theme flips saturated Marvell/Coherent/Lumentum optical demand rolling over. |
| UMC | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $21.25 | Silicon-photonics pivot re-rated the ADR ~3x, but the July blowoff to $28.96 round-tripped -26% to $21.25 in days while sell-side finally upgraded (Macquarie Outperform 2026-07-14) late-stage distribution behaviour. The 2026-07-29 Q2 print is now the binary that decides whether the leg resumes or the re-rate unwinds. | A weekly close below $19.00 takes out the June breakout shelf and confirms the $28.96 July high as the cycle top; secondarily, a Q2 print on 2026-07-29 that meets revenue but compresses gross margin, showing the mature-node price war reasserting under an AI headline. |
small-cap-value-rotation
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMTR | HELD | 2nd-Order AI | $98.54 | AI-native manufacturing marketplace re-rating on a profitability inflection Q1 marketplace revenue +40% YoY, FY guide raised, Siemens embed plus ~$50M stock buy. Wedbush 7/16 Outperform $126 reopens Street upside above spot after June's above-cluster trade; the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print is the next binary. | A weekly close below $79 forfeits the early-June secondary low and the reclaimed $85 offer shelf, signaling the post-offering repair has failed; secondary condition is the small-cap-ai-momentum theme flipping to SATURATED as marketplace growth decelerates below ~30% YoY. |
Space economy
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $57.80 | The July 15-16 $1B convertible plus the slip of initial commercial direct-to-device service into 2027 broke the "2H26 revenue" leg the June rebound was built on; a 17% one-day flush to $55.01 and a fading +12% bounce mark this as a funded-but-delayed story trading on retail flow, with the 7/22 FCC licensing vote the only near-term catalyst. | A weekly close below $52 forfeits the June post-launch base and the 2026-07-16 dilution-flush low ($55.01 close), confirming the delay is being repriced rather than absorbed; secondary break: the first-half-August Falcon 9 window for BlueBirds 11-13 slipping again, or the space complex rolling to saturated as RKLB/Firefly/SPCX keep underperforming. |
| IRDM | HELD | Binary Catalyst | $46.68 | Narrative-momentum thesis is closed: Rocket Lab agreed 2026-06-29 to acquire Iridium for ~$54/share (the published invalidation level cash + a calculated ratio of RKLB stock), EV ~$8B. IRDM now trades as merger-arb spread to ~$54 plus embedded RKLB beta not on NTN Direct or spectrum. Morgan Stanley's PT-to-$54 (2026-06-30) confirms the Street marks it to the deal. Upside is capped at terms; the live… | A weekly close below $48 the spread blowing out well beneath the ~$54 takeout signals rising deal-break risk and a slide toward standalone value in the ~$40s; a hard regulatory block (FCC license transfer / national-security review) or an RKLB collapse that guts the stock consideration would confirm the break. |
| PL | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $22.47 | The post-SpaceX-IPO unwind has extended, not stabilized: PL broke the $23 shelf on the 7/16 -7.8% flush and trades ~$22.58, roughly 56% off the $51.40 May peak, with the 50-DMA ($35.40) and 200-DMA ($30.60) far overhead. Record fundamentals sit under a $1.5B at-the-market program now equal to ~19% of a $7.9B cap. Downtrend intact; no base, no bid worth chasing. | A weekly close below $21 (loses the 7/18 flush low) confirms the breakdown is extending toward a full round-trip of the 2026 move with the $1.5B ATM as a standing lid; the constructive case only re-arms on a weekly reclaim of the $30.60 200-DMA on rising volume with a confirmed higher low behind it. |
| SPCX | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $123.99 | Nasdaq-100 inclusion flow catalyst fired and faded into a sell-the-news; SPCX is now an unbased $1.77T post-IPO decliner (a post-IPO buyer down ~23%) in the Figma/Circle retreat cohort, with lock-ups ahead and China closing the reusable-rocket gap. Generational asset, broken entry stand aside until it bases. | A weekly close below $135 (the IPO offer) confirms the day-one pop has fully unwound and hands the tape to lock-up/float overhang value-trap confirmed. Secondary: China's reusable-booster gap-close erodes the launch-monopoly premium, or the first public Q2 print shows Starlink margin deceleration. |
uncategorized
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSTR | HELD | Emergent | $211.56 | Theme cluster led by RXO peer name. Stated win-probability p=0.62. A genuine freight-cycle upturn after a multi-year trucking recession: brokerage, LTL and truckload volumes and spot rates are re-accelerating, lifting asset-light and asset-based carriers together. RXO leads as the highest-beta brokerage play; XPO's LTL execution is the durable compounding anchor. | Daily close below $18.50 (theme invalidation) |
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How To Read This Bench
- Conviction / status is the engine's current tag, not a recommendation. LOW = interesting but the setup isn't here yet; HELD = on the active research bench as a continuation idea.
- Archetype is the playbook the dossier engine assigns (Dominant Narrative, Picks & Shovels, 2nd-Order AI, Legacy Pivot, Binary Catalyst, Retail Squeeze, Emergent).
- "Watching for" is the concrete public level or event that confirms the entry or invalidates the thesis analyst price targets, technical bases, catalyst dates. Never positioning.
Research only. No positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed. Per-name prices are reads via FMP (a US exchange fallback) as of 2026-07-17; theses and levels are drawn from the live ticker dossiers.