The live book · 5 held · 37 circling
What we hold. What we're circling.
As of 2026-06-05, orbyd holds 5 names and is circling 37 more on the watchlist — each with its thesis, archetype and the published trigger that would prove it wrong. Names and research only: never a share count, a dollar, a weight, an entry, a stop, a target or a P&L.
The transparency, and its edges
You see every name and the reasoning. You never see the sizing.
Most books are a logo wall published a quarter late, if at all. This one is live and reasoned — ticker, conviction, archetype, theme, thesis, and the exact condition that would prove each one wrong. What it deliberately leaves out is the trade itself:
- share counts
- dollar amounts
- total / NAV value
- % weights
- entry / exit prices
- stops
- targets
- returns
- P&L
The read is public so it can be judged; the trade is private so the judgement stays honest. Every claim here is dated and falsifiable — see how each one gets scored in public.
Held · the book
5- HIGHa0Uncategorised
thesis continuation on thesis continuation
Invalidates if a daily close below the thesis-invalidation level
Covered since - HIGHa0Uncategorised
thesis continuation on thesis continuation
Invalidates if a daily close below the thesis-invalidation level
Covered since - HIGHa0Uncategorised
thesis continuation on thesis continuation
Invalidates if a daily close below the thesis-invalidation level
Covered since - LOW
[position redacted] [position redacted] held into TODAY's (6/4) binary Q1 FY27 print; engine already [trade redacted] pre-print. Space-cluster theme now MATURING→edge-of-SATURATED (UFO ETF $1B AUM, NASA-ETF mania) with the ~6/12 SpaceX debut the likely sell-the-news peak. Ride remainder only on a beat + strong guide; cut on any soft bookings. No [trade redacted] into earnings.
Invalidates if Soft/missed Q1 print tonight (rev <~$84M or weak FY27 guide) → market-sell remainder; OR daily close below $42 (loses $42.48 breakout shelf); OR SpaceX ~6/12 debut prints sell-the-news and the cluster (RKLB/ASTS) rolls over.
Covered since catalyst due - LOW
Solar-EBOS name traded as a 2nd-order AI-power play; early-May analyst cluster + Tennessee BESS facility lit the leg, now ~1 month stale with no catalyst until the ~early-August Q2 print. Range-bound $9.50–10; HOLD above the breakout base, not add-here. Jun-18 $10 call sweep is the near-term tell — decays worthless if it can't reclaim $10 into opex.
Invalidates if Daily close below the rising 20-EMA / May breakout base near $9.00; or repeated failure to reclaim $10 into 2026-06-18 opex (call sweep marked to zero), confirming the leg is dead.
Covered since catalyst in 13d
Circling · the watchlist
Full rationale →- MEDIUM
- MEDIUM
- MEDIUM
BTC-miner→AI-infra pivot now de-risked: a SECOND hyperscaler anchor lease (2026-05-20) stacked on the $7.5B/15yr Delta Forge deal (4/23), plus a 4-analyst PT cluster to $60-70 (Lake Street/Citizens/Needham/B.Riley, 5/21-5/27). Theme ACCELERATING but crowding. [trade redacted] from [entry redacted] — ride the held position; [trade redacted] only on a 20-EMA retest, don''t chase the top of the move.
- MEDIUM
- MEDIUM
- MEDIUM
Q2 FY26 (2026-06-03) printed a monster — $30B AI-semi bookings vs $10.8B shipped (2.8x book-to-bill) + $100B FY27 AI guide — but the stock SOLD THE NEWS on a beat-and-reiterate. Fundamentals ACCELERATING, tape now MATURING. The binary we deferred 6 weeks for has cleared; want the post-earnings higher-low that holds, not the day-1 flush.
- MEDIUM
InP-substrate pick-and-shovel for the AI optical-interconnect boom. Q1 (4/30) inflected: InP >50% of rev, record $100M backlog, Q2 guided to first profitability in years. Theme ACCELERATING (NVIDIA $4B optics bet, photonics ETF). Stock -28% off $143 ATH to ~$105 = pullback to rising 20-EMA, not a broken setup. We missed the $64→$143 leg; buy the higher-low reclaim of $115-120 on volume, don''t blind-chase the chop.
- MEDIUM
Awaited tier-1 catalyst printed — Mastercard added USDC settlement 2026-06-03 — overriding the Compass Point $77 ceiling; rails narrative re-accelerating with HC Wainwright Buy $150 (5/18) + Nium 190-country deal (5/27). Offset: Tiger Global exited its entire stake (5/15) and KeyBanc only Sector Weight (5/26). Constructive but distribution-flagged — probe, don''t chase.
- MEDIUM
Memory super-cycle PROVEN and still tightening (DRAM Q2 +58–63% QoQ, sold out through 2026). Our 5/23 "saturated" SKIP at [entry redacted] [trade redacted] as EWY ripped to $214.53 (6/3), ~1.5% under the 52-wk high. Theme ACCELERATING + cluster-confirmed (EWY/QQQ widest since 2001); momentum-realignment says ride the leg at MEDIUM, don't repeat the skip.
- MEDIUM
Multi-leg narrative now MATURING: the prediction-market leg is SATURATED (comedy/political/state-criminalization backlash + Kalshi/Wintermute flooding in), but Trump Accounts AUC rail went LIVE May 28 and a fresh ~$20M insider buy (Meyer Malka, Jun 2) signals conviction into a CLARITY-doubt dip (Jun 1). No clean base — watchlist until a higher low reclaims the 20-EMA or CLARITY resolves.
- MEDIUM
Quantum re-rated by REAL capital: $2B CHIPS Act + Trump-admin equity stakes (WSJ 2026-05-21) drove IONQ past $63 (2026-05-26); Q1 blowout (+755% YoY, 2026-05-06) confirmed fundamentals. Now MATURING — rally cooled, short interest spiking, Quantinuum IPO ($14.3B, 2026-06-03) threatens the pure-play premium. Ride the winner; don''t chase fresh into froth.
- MEDIUM
BTC-miner→AI-neocloud pivot binary RESOLVED bull: 5-yr $3.4B Microsoft AI cloud contract + $3.65B investment-grade GPU financing (closed 6/1) + Dell $1.6B Blackwell supply de-risk BOTH the named-tenant question AND the ATM dilution overhang. Theme ACCELERATING, PTs ramping $61→$99 (Cantor 5/28). The miner-comp→AI-infra-comp re-rate is live — but a fresh entry now is chasing an extended, retail-hot tape.
- MEDIUM
Post-print -8.45% sell-the-news fully reversed: LITE flashed a "key trading signal" at $866.97 on 2026-06-01 and ripped +7%, reclaiming the pre-print high (dossier setup-b trigger) on Nasdaq-100 inclusion + Tiger Global buying. But a REX LITE 2X single-stock ETF (2026-05-21) and mainstream photonics-ETF debut flag late-stage retail saturation. Momentum reclaimed and playable, not a fat pitch.
- MEDIUM
New leg: Meta monetizing AI BEYOND ads — Business Agent Platform + $200/mo Hatch agent (6/3), explicit "diversify beyond ads" push (6/2), Rosenblatt $1,015. Custom-silicon thesis validated by Broadcom''s $100B/2027 forecast + $73B backlog, Meta the anchor ASIC customer. ACCELERATING fresh narrative, not the old earnings trade — but price-blind this cycle.
- MEDIUM
- MEDIUM
- MEDIUM
Q1 binary confirmed bull (Rule of 40 145%); new leg is commercial-flywheel re-acceleration (Google Cloud Marketplace + Dell on-prem + 4 deals 2026-06-04) plus Trump 'trusted partner' 60-day clock (2026-06-03). But price just got REJECTED at the 200-DMA (2026-06-03) into profit-taking on a MATURING theme. Trade the reclaim, not the rejection.
- MEDIUM
TL1A/I&I platform narrative accelerating: SPY001 de-risked UC (best-in-class, p<0.0001, Q1 5/5), now multi-asset readout cluster — SPY002 anti-TL1A mid-2026, SPY003 Q3, SPY072 rheum Q3-Q4. DB lifted PT to $115 (6/4), Stifel $107; stock ~$72 near 52wk-high $78.80, +345% YoY. Next leg = SPY002 binary.
- MEDIUM
Q1 print (2026-05-13) confirmed the bull case — operating profit ~doubled on AI tailwinds, GM expanded, Q2 guide raised, stock +17%. Theme ACCELERATING, but sell-side caught up (PTs $300–335, 2026-05-14) and the catalyst is spent; next binary is Q2 print ~early Aug. Want a higher-low / 20-EMA pullback for clean re-entry, not a 2-months-early chase.
- MEDIUM
Rare-earth ex-China leg is now the live driver, not uranium: UUUU printed first 99.9% Tb + ~30kg Dy oxide from US monazite and is closing the ~$300M ASM mine-to-metal deal ~late June. Stock +10.9% June 2 ($19.54) on the breakthrough, reclaiming mid-range off the ~$16 mid-May low. ACCELERATING — chase the spike only as a probe; cleaner add on a hold above the 20-EMA.
- MEDIUM
AI-power catalyst is SPENT — Meta+AWS PPAs signed, 2026 EBITDA guide raised +~14% to $6.8–7.6B, yet VST round-tripped ~30% off the $219.82 high to a $132.66 low and now chops ~$153. No longer the anticipation trade; it's a trend-repair/reclaim setup with NO near-term binary (next print ~Aug). Theme MATURING. Don't bottom-fish — a fresh long needs a 50-DMA reclaim + power-complex re-acceleration.
- LOW
Optical/photonics-transceiver leader survived its ~2026-05-08 Q1 print and ran to 400%+ YTD, but the theme has flipped ACCELERATING→SATURATED: dedicated photonics ETF launched (2026-05-13), MEME/leveraged-ETF retail flows, record $1.3T margin debt, and a $600M ATM (2026-05-14) = management selling the mania. Fresh chase = peak-sentiment trap; wait for a base above rising MA that absorbs the ATM supply.
- LOW
Data-center grid-power pick-and-shovel; backlog +40% YoY to ~$280M, Q4 orders ~$100M. But 2026-05-28 beat sold off on soft Q1 margin guide ($0.17 adj vs $0.24 est) — gapped ~9%, then -8.8% on Jun 3 to $46.67. Narrative accelerating, price structure broken: wait for a higher low, don''t chase the knife.
- LOW
Earnings binary resolved bullish (Q1 sales $616M vs $495M est, EPS $0.34 beat, 2026-05-05) but the tape SOLD it — topped $135.24, bled ~23% to ~$104. Theme downgraded ACCELERATING→MATURING as spot rolls to $84.70/lb (-2.8% MoM). 2026-06-01 Cigar Lake stake-up to 57.4% signals management conviction, but structure is broken — don't chase mid-pullback; wait for a higher-low reclaim of $115.
- LOW
Nuclear-baseload-for-AI narrative has gone mainstream and CEG is the crowded, mature leg: Q1 beat (2026-05-11) sold off ~3%, Third Point fully exited, and an 11M-share secondary priced at $281 (2026-06-01) caps the tape with supply overhang. No fresh entry without a pullback that holds or a NEW hyperscaler PPA / FERC co-location win.
- LOW
1.5–2.5x BTC-beta proxy in a confirmed bear leg, not a dip: BTC $63.6K (−50% off ATH, 11-day ETF outflows −$3.45B, MSTR now SELLING, whale distribution at 2022 lows). COIN $173.99 has sliced under the Piper $180 bear anchor and all MAs. Momentum narrative rolled MATURING→SATURATED. Falling knife — no long until BTC reclaims ~$68K and COIN closes >$185 weekly. Watchlist only.
- LOW
Q1 binary resolved (beat-and-fade, mean-reverted $130s→~$104); now a choppy basing/recovery on fresh catalysts — Vera Rubin first-validation (6/1), BNP $192 initiation (6/2), NVDA stake. Earnings now Aug 11, so binary-risk DEFER reason is gone, but CRWV is still the laggard of its theme. Setup improving, not yet a clean breakout — LOW probe.
- LOW
AI-PC + agentic-CPU + foundry-turnaround leg now CONTESTED: NVIDIA''s 2026-06-01 ARM AI-PC chip launch hit INTC -5% (direct x86 threat) while Burry shorts the semi complex on a dot-com parallel. Parabolic ~$102 (~170% above 200DMA, 108x P/E); sell-side PT-chasing to $100-110 but ratings stuck Equal-Weight. Late-stage, not a fresh setup.
- LOW
Binary resolved: the £81m MACOM-led strategic raise (28 May 2026, 19.8p) killed the going-concern/dilution overhang and flipped the story from dying handset-epi to InP-for-AI-datacenter optical — Photonics +15%, FY2026 guided >20% growth + EBITDA inflection. Legacy-pivot re-rate, but the May relief pop is done and there''s no near-term catalyst: MATURING setup, buy the pullback toward the 19.8p raise level, don''t chase.
- LOW
The flywheel REVERSED. Strategy went from perpetual BTC buyer to net SELLER (Saylor dumped, 6/1) and the STRC financing engine is in a "death spiral" (Schiff 6/2). BTC in "purge mode" below $67K (6/3) heading toward $50K. This is a narrative BREAK, not a dip — avoid the knife. A long only re-fires on a BTC base + an 8-K showing renewed net accumulation.
- LOW
NRC formally accepted the Kronos construction-permit app (5/20, +10.7%) and the SMCI AI-power MOU plug NNE into the nuclear-powers-AI meta-narrative — but the $400M ATM is now LIVE ($569M liquidity) and 6/03 faded 14% off $30.62 to close $26.24 (distribution). Dilution-on-strength is armed; rental/probe only, not a fresh chase.
- LOW
Nuclear-for-AI-power narrative MATURING, not accelerating. Q1 (5/13) print made OKLO a top-10 large-cap loser; DOE plutonium win (5/26) bounced it (Goldman $66, Cantor $122); then 2026-06-03 co-founders sold $13.6M and the stock dropped 12% — textbook distribution into strength on a pre-revenue name. No clean setup; fresh entry today is a falling knife.
- LOW
Government-bet leg ($2B CHIPS / $100M Commerce LOI, 5/21) is now DIGESTED, not fresh. Sell-side caught up with triple $40 PTs (6/2), QTUM ETF hit $5B = mainstream, short interest spiking, Quantinuum IPO (6/3) adds equity supply. Theme MATURING→saturating. a6 squeeze; fresh entry ONLY on pullback to the gap base — no chasing the $40-PT mania.
- LOW
Quantum theme MATURING after the 2026-05-21 $2B CHIPS blow-off — and QUBT was NOT one of the 9 funded names. Faded to ~$11.34 (off $25.84 52w high), May-12 200-DMA reclaim failing. Quantinuum's $14.3B IPO (~2026-06-05) drains capital to the flagship. Beta-only laggard, no accelerating leg to buy.
- LOW
Government-stake leg (2026-05-21 $2B CHIPS quantum push) already fired and cooled inside 4 sessions; theme tipping MATURING→SATURATED (QTUM ETF $5B AUM, short interest spiking, insider selling, IBM $10B + Quantinuum $14.3B IPO commoditizing the pure-play). No fresh RGTI-specific catalyst in 30d — chasing the cooled pop is the trap. LOW probe only.
- LOW
Beaten-down SMR re-activated on a NEW binary: South Korea''s $200B US-investment package is eyeing NuScale''s Tennessee/TVA program (Doosan + Samsung C&T in talks). But the tape is pure rip-fade (+9% 6/2 → −13% 6/3 to $12.13), fundamentals are broken (Q1 rev $0.565M, −96% miss), and Citi $7 / Goldman $9 PTs sit at/below spot. Undated catalyst + no clean base = SKIP the chase; watchlist only.
- LOW
Optimus/robotics leg is actively breaking, not accelerating — TSLA shed $75B in a session on 2026-06-02 after Sam Altman targeted Optimus and NVIDIA armed Chinese humanoid rivals with an open robotics platform. Musk-complex capital is draining into the ~mid-June SpaceX IPO ($1.77T, $135), not TSLA. No fresh TSLA-specific accelerant — stay flat until structure reclaims the 6/2 gap.
Common questions
- Why don't you show position sizes, weights, or dollar amounts?
- Because the read is the product, not the trade. Publishing share counts, weights, entries, stops or P&L would let readers front-run or fade the live trade and would turn a research record into a tip sheet. orbyd shows every name and the reasoning; the sizing stays private, by design and permanently.
- Is this a real portfolio?
- It's the model's live book on a paper account — the names it would hold and is researching, each with a thesis and a published invalidation trigger. The value comes from whether the reasoning holds up (see the track record), not from a P&L number.
- What's the difference between held and the watchlist?
- Held names are on the book now; watchlist names are under active research — circling, not yet committed. Both are shown as names plus research attributes only.
- How often does the book change?
- It tracks the pipeline: the model re-reads its names every trading day, and the book here reflects the latest synced dossier status. Every name is dated.