Dossier · CADL · Dormant
CADL
Last analysed · · source: decision_window
Current thesis
[Stage 1 DEFER] Biotech archetype-5 binary catalyst with 5/15 extended-FU Phase 3 conference call ~2 trading days out — hard earnings-blackout rule applies, no fresh entries within 3 TD of binary.
Invalidation trigger
Revisit after 2026-05-15 Phase 3 conference call readout — if data confirms efficacy and clean post-readout structure forms above 20-EMA, re-evaluate fresh setup
Thesis status
Open commitment scored if the trigger above fires How this is scored →Current Thesis
_(no analysis yet — pending first synthesis or watchlist research)_
Bull Case
_(pending)_
Bear Case
_(pending)_
Setup & Price Structure
_(pending)_
Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)
_(pending)_
What Would Change Our Mind
_(pending)_
Correlation Notes
_(pending)_
Related · shared themes
RVMD
KRAS-franchise leadership accelerating after 2026-04-13 daraxonrasib Phase 3 doubled survival vs chemo in pancreatic cancer; FDA submission pending, $2B raised at $142 funds commercial launch, zoldonrasib G12D data (52% ORR, 93% DCR) adds a second pillar. Analyst PTs just walked $147→$215.
ELVN
Dual-binary precision-oncology event window: ELVN-001 (BCR-ABL, vs Scemblix 67.7% MMR@48w ASC4FIRST 2024-06) + ELVN-002 (HER2-selective TKI) into AACR 2026-04-27 (T-5d) and ASCO 2026-05-31 (T-39d). Narrative ACCELERATING; $280M cash removes dilution tail; this is an event build, not a chart trade.
JBIO
Binary Phase 1 biomarker interim (H1 2026, most likely within 30d) into a tape that's +43% in 2 weeks to a 52-week high. Mechanism de-risked by VERA ORIGIN P3 (NEJM 2025, PDUFA 2026-07-07). Accelerating but crowded — probe sizing only, tight stop, archetype-5 discipline.
LGN
Post-secondary clearing trade on Blackstone-backed HVAC/mechanical roll-up re-badged as AI data-center power/cooling pick-and-shovel. 2026-04-08 block at $54 cleared the overhang; GS $72 / Tigress $85 PT bumps on 2026-04-16 re-rated the narrative. ~2026-05-07 Q1 print is the binary — first test of AI-capex translating to booked revenue.