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Dossier · EVER · Dormant

EVER · EverQuote, Inc. · Stock research

LOW Defensive Catalyst · m-and-a-special-situations managed-care-health-services

Last analysed ·

Current thesis

Matured auto/home insurance lead-gen cyclical that re-rated on the tape: a +6.91% breakout on 2026-06-26 (~4x average volume) reclaimed the declined ~$20.30 200-DMA, confirmed by a live estimate-revision cycle (Zacks consensus EPS +21% in 30d, 6 up / 0 down). Revenue is still plateaued near $190M the long is technical, and the 2026-08-10 Q2 print is the binary that settles plateau vs. carrier-spend rollover.

Invalidation trigger

A daily close below $20.30 negates the 200-DMA reclaim and reverts price into the $17–20 base the breakout failed. Thesis fully broken if the Q2'26 print (2026-08-10) lands VMD below the $55M guide floor: carrier ad-spend rollover, not plateau.

Thesis status

Open commitment catalyst in 22dscored if the trigger above fires How this is scored →

Latest analysis and events for EVER —

As of 2026-07-12, orbyd's latest analysis for EverQuote, Inc. (EVER): Matured auto/home insurance lead-gen cyclical that re-rated on the tape: a +6.91% breakout on 2026-06-26 (~4x average volume) reclaimed the declined ~$20.30 200-DMA, confirmed by a live estimate-revision cycle (Zacks consensus EPS +21% in 30d, 6 up / 0 down). Revenue is still plateaued near $190M the long is technical, and the 2026-08-10 Q2 print is the binary that settles plateau vs. carrier-spend rollover.

Invalidation trigger: A daily close below $20.30 negates the 200-DMA reclaim and reverts price into the $17–20 base the breakout failed. Thesis fully broken if the Q2'26 print (2026-08-10) lands VMD below the $55M guide floor: carrier ad-spend rollover, not plateau.

Next dated event on file: — catalyst in 22d.

Current Thesis

EverQuote runs the online auto and home insurance lead-generation marketplace, matching carrier and agent ad budgets to consumer shoppers. The 2024–early-2025 trade was the carrier ad-spend recovery supercycle: insurers that gutted acquisition budgets in 2022–23 came back hard, driving revenue +83% YoY in Q1'25 and the stock into the high-$20s. That growth leg has matured. Q1'26 (reported 2026-05-06) printed revenue $190.9M, up only +15% YoY the fifth straight step down the deceleration curve (+83% → +34% → +20% → +32% → +15%) and the print has now parked in a ~$190–195M band for three quarters, with Q1'26 actually lower than Q4'25's $195.3M.

What re-fired since the prior read is the tape, not the fundamentals. On 2026-06-26 the stock ripped +6.91% to $23.20 on 2.64M shares roughly 4x the ~646K-share average reclaiming the 200-day moving average, which has slid to ~$20.30 as high-$20s prints from mid-2025 roll off the trailing window. That high-volume reclaim is the momentum trigger the June coil had been setting up. The fuel is an estimate-revision cycle (Zacks consensus EPS up ~21% over 30 days, six upward revisions and zero cuts) plus an AI-margin narrative around chatbot integration and SmartCampaign not a re-acceleration in revenue. The move is now ~2.5 weeks old, the after-hours tape gave back -2.13% to $22.71 the same session, and there is no fresh company catalyst until the 2026-08-10 Q2 print. Buying the extended candle into the $23.82 swing high, on a matured cyclical, with a binary print approaching, is the chase not the entry.

Bullish and bearish views on EverQuote, Inc.

The model's bull view on EverQuote, Inc. (EVER), in brief: 200-DMA reclaim fired on volume (2026-06-26): +6.91% to $23.20 on 2.64M shares vs a ~646K average, clearing the ~$20.30 200-DMA and the rising ~$17.54 50-DMA the first genuine momentum-long signal since the May earnings surge. The bear view: The growth narrative already paid out: YoY revenue growth fell from +83% (Q1'25) to +15% (Q1'26); the cyclical ad-spend snapback is largely spent. Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

  • 200-DMA reclaim fired on volume (2026-06-26): +6.91% to $23.20 on 2.64M shares vs a ~646K average, clearing the ~$20.30 200-DMA and the rising ~$17.54 50-DMA the first genuine momentum-long signal since the May earnings surge.
  • Live estimate-revision cycle: the Zacks consensus EPS estimate climbed ~21% over the trailing 30 days on six upward revisions and no negative ones sell-side turning constructive ahead of the August print, which historically front-runs price.
  • Record profitability, clean Q1 beat (2026-05-06): revenue $190.9M (+15% YoY) vs guide $175–185M; record adjusted EBITDA $29.3M (+30%); GAAP net income $18.7M (+134%); EPS $0.51, a ~16% beat; operating cash flow $29.6M. Cash-generative, not a burner.
  • Home/renters is the emergent thread: Q1'26 home & renters revenue $18.5M, +33% YoY versus auto's +13%; management's arc grows home into a larger TAM and reiterated a $1B annual revenue goal within 2–3 years on the Q1 call.
  • Balance sheet and valuation support: $178.5M cash, zero debt at 2026-03-31 after $19.9M of Q1 buybacks; trailing P/E ~7.9, forward P/E ~10.7 inexpensive if the AI-margin story compounds.

Bear Case

  • The growth narrative already paid out: YoY revenue growth fell from +83% (Q1'25) to +15% (Q1'26); the cyclical ad-spend snapback is largely spent. June was a technical re-rating on a flat fundamental base.
  • Sequential revenue has flatlined near $190M for three quarters Q1'26 ($190.9M) was down from Q4'25 ($195.3M), and the Q2 guide midpoint (~$190M) implies no sequential ramp. The +21% YoY Q2 headline leans on a soft Q2'25 comp.
  • Price rallied into the target zone: consensus PT clusters ~$24–$25.83 (MarketBeat $24.17, range $18–$30) against a $23.20 close, so the easy catch-up-to-PT upside is mostly closed; from here it needs the revision cycle to keep running.
  • The breakout is unconfirmed: the after-hours -2.13% fade the same session and ~2.5 weeks of elapsed tape mean the ~$20.30 hold is the open question, not settled fact.
  • Structurally hard to trade: thin ~328K–646K average daily volume makes scale difficult and gaps sharp on any earnings surprise.

Setup & Price Structure

The pattern is a base breakout of a multi-month $17–20 range: the 2026-06-26 session reclaimed the declining ~$20.30 200-DMA on ~4x volume, with the rising ~$17.54 50-DMA now the trend-support floor. Immediate overhead is the $23.82 swing high; above it the 52-week ceiling stretches toward ~$30. The decisive question is whether the reclaim held through the ~2.5 weeks since a daily close back below $20.30 reverts price into the old base and stamps the breakout as failed. This is a stretched-into-resistance, single-catalyst-away entry, not a clean pullback-to-support setup; the disciplined stance is to wait for either a hold-and-retest of the $20.30–$21 shelf on lighter volume or a decisive volume push through $23.82, rather than paying up for the extended candle.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

  • ~2026-07-15 to 2026-07-22 (est.): Progressive (PGR) monthly results leading tell on carrier acquisition/ad budgets and the orthogonal read on EverQuote's revenue base.
  • ~2026-07-28 to 2026-08-05 (est.): earnings blackout window opens; buyback pace and IR signaling quiet down.
  • ~2026-08-05 (est.): MediaAlpha (MAX) Q2 print same carrier ad-spend cycle, direct cluster confirmation or divergence one week ahead of EVER.
  • 2026-08-10 (confirmed): EverQuote Q2'26 print the binary. Guide is rev $185–195M (+21% YoY mid), VMD $55–57M (+23% mid), adj EBITDA $28–30M (+32% mid). VMD is the number that settles plateau vs. rollover.

What Would Change Our Mind

A daily close below $20.30 negates the 200-DMA reclaim and drops price back into the $17–20 base at that point the breakout has failed and the technical long is void. The fundamental thesis breaks outright if the 2026-08-10 Q2 print lands VMD below the $55M guide floor or revenue below ~$185M, which would read as carrier ad-spend rolling over rather than plateauing. Conversely, a decisive volume close through $23.82 with the estimate-revision cycle still expanding (further upward EPS revisions, MediaAlpha confirming) would upgrade the setup from a technical probe toward a trend continuation worth sizing into on the first higher-low retest.

Correlation Notes

EverQuote is a pure play on the insurance carrier ad-spend cycle, so its cleanest correlate is MediaAlpha (MAX), which monetizes the identical budget flow and prints roughly a week earlier treat MAX's Q2 as a leading tell. Upstream, the actual spend originates with the large personal-lines carriers: Progressive (PGR), Allstate (ALL) and GEICO (Berkshire), whose monthly results and combined-ratio commentary gate how aggressively they buy leads. Tight underwriting margins and expanding budgets are the tailwind; carrier retrenchment on rate adequacy is the headwind. The name carries little direct index beta and is thinly traded, so idiosyncratic gaps around its own and MAX's prints dominate broad-market direction is a minor input relative to the carrier-spend signal.

Notes

  • EVER = EverQuote, Inc. (NASDAQ:EVER), online auto/home insurance lead-gen marketplace. Prior dossier theme 'consumer-discretionary-rotation' was WRONG corrected to insurtech.
  • Earnings cadence: Q1'26 printed ~early May 2026 (rev $190.9M, +15%, record adj EBITDA $29.3M). Q2'26 print est ~2026-08-04 EARNINGS BLACKOUT late-Jul/early-Aug.
  • Revenue deceleration trajectory: +83% (Q1'25) → +34% (Q2'25) → +20% (Q3'25) → +32% (Q4'25) → +15% (Q1'26). Sequential plateau $190-195M.
  • Key levels: 50-DMA $17.12, 200-DMA $22.49, 52-wk range $16.63-$30.03. Reclaim-and-hold of 200-DMA on volume is the first real momentum long trigger.
  • Cluster/divergence read: MediaAlpha (MAX) trades the same carrier ad-spend cycle; watch PGR/ALL ad-budget commentary as orthogonal carrier-spend signal.
  • Thin tape (~328K avg daily vol) hard to scale; keep any probe small.
  • EVER = EverQuote, Inc. (NASDAQ:EVER), online auto/home insurance lead-gen marketplace. Archetype: Emergent the spent auto ad-spend cyclical with a small, faster-growing home/renters thread as the only forward narrative.
  • Earnings cadence: Q1'26 printed 2026-05-06 (rev $190.9M, +15% YoY, record adj EBITDA $29.3M, net income $18.7M). Q2'26 confirmed 2026-08-10 EARNINGS BLACKOUT late-Jul/early-Aug.
  • Revenue deceleration trajectory: +83% (Q1'25) → +34% (Q2'25) → +20% (Q3'25) → +32% (Q4'25) → +15% (Q1'26). Sequential plateau $190-195M; Q1'26 was DOWN sequentially vs Q4'25's $195.3M.
  • Key levels (as of 2026-06-05 close $19.32): 50-DMA rising ~$17.50, 200-DMA ~$22.49, 52-wk range $13.88-$28.73. High-volume reclaim-and-hold of the 200-DMA is the first real momentum long trigger.
  • Post-earnings bounce ran +36.6% over the trailing 4 weeks, peaked ~$19.95 on 2026-06-02, now fading relief rally into resistance, not a new narrative leg.
  • Q2'26 guide: rev $185-195M (+21% YoY mid), VMD $55-57M (+23% mid), adj EBITDA $28-30M (+32% mid). Management reiterated $1B annual revenue goal in 2-3 years on the Q1 call.
  • Balance sheet: $178.5M cash, zero debt as of 2026-03-31; $19.9M buyback in Q1'26. Consensus Buy (100% of 8 analysts), avg PT $25.83 (range $23-$30), trimmed ~$5-10 on cautious carrier-spend.
  • Cluster/divergence read: MediaAlpha (MAX) trades the same carrier ad-spend cycle; PGR/ALL monthly metrics + ad-budget commentary are the orthogonal upstream demand signal.
  • Volume normalized up ~747K avg (from ~328K) on the post-earnings move easier to scale than before, but still small-cap ($683M) with single-carrier concentration risk.
  • EVER = EverQuote, Inc. (NASDAQ:EVER), online auto/home insurance lead-gen marketplace. Archetype: Emergent spent auto ad-spend cyclical with a faster-growing home/renters thread plus an AI-margin efficiency sub-narrative as the only forward legs.
  • STRUCTURE FLIPPED vs prior read: from fading under the 200-DMA at $19.32 (2026-06-05) to a +6.91% breakout to $23.20 on 2026-06-26 (2.64M sh, ~4x the ~646K avg vol), reclaiming the now-DECLINED 200-DMA. 200-DMA has fallen to ~$20.30 (was ~$22.49 on 2026-06-05) as high-$20s prints from mid-2025 roll off; 50-DMA ~$17.54 and rising steeply. After-hours faded -2.13% to $22.71 the reclaim is one day old and unconfirmed.
  • No single-day NEWS catalyst on 2026-06-26 move is momentum/sentiment-driven: Zacks consensus EPS estimate +21.22% over trailing 30d (6 upward revisions, 0 negative) + AI-margin narrative (LLM chatbot integration, SmartCampaign deployment).
  • Q1'26 printed 2026-05-06: rev $190.9M (+15% YoY) vs guide $175–185M; auto $172.4M (+13%), home/renters $18.5M (+33%); net income $18.7M (+134%); record adj EBITDA $29.3M (+30%); EPS $0.51 beat ~16%; op cash flow $29.6M. $178.5M cash, zero debt at 3/31/26 after $19.9M Q1 buyback.
  • Revenue deceleration: +83% (Q1'25) → +34% (Q2'25) → +20% (Q3'25) → +32% (Q4'25) → +15% (Q1'26). Sequential plateau ~$190-195M; Q1'26 was DOWN sequentially vs Q4'25's $195.3M. Q2'26 guide rev $185-195M (+21% YoY mid, flattered by soft base), VMD $55-57M, adj EBITDA $28-30M.
  • Q2'26 print CONFIRMED 2026-08-10 outside the 30-day window. EARNINGS BLACKOUT late-Jul/early-Aug. Mgmt reiterated $1B annual revenue goal in 2-3 years on the Q1 call (2026-05-06).
  • Price has rallied INTO the consensus PT zone avg PT ~$24-$25.83 (MarketBeat $24.17, range $18-$30; stockanalysis $25.83), 100% Buy distribution but only 3 reports in 90d. Easy catch-up-to-PT upside is mostly closed; further upside needs the estimate-revision cycle to keep running.
  • Cluster/divergence read: MediaAlpha (MAX) trades the same carrier ad-spend cycle confirm it's also breaking out before trusting the move as a theme bid, not a single-name pop. PGR/ALL ad-budget commentary is the orthogonal carrier-spend signal.
  • Tape was historically thin (~328K avg in spring); structurally elevated since the May earnings surge (~646K avg, 2.64M on breakout day). Still keep any probe small slippage on reversals is real.
  • Key levels (2026-06-26 close $23.20): 50-DMA ~$17.54, 200-DMA ~$20.30, 50-day range $14.42–$23.82, 52-wk range $13.88–$28.73. The $23.82 swing high is immediate overhead; a daily close that holds above it on volume would confirm the breakout and upgrade the read.
  • EVER = EverQuote, Inc. (NASDAQ:EVER), online auto/home insurance lead-gen marketplace. Theme-discovery has repeatedly mislabeled it (consumer-discretionary-rotation → fintech-consumer-credit → managed-care-health-services); NONE are right the correct frame is insurtech / carrier ad-spend cycle. Do not carry health-services tag forward.
  • Earnings blackout late-Jul/early-Aug. Q2'26 print CONFIRMED 2026-08-10 the binary. Q2'26 is NOT the thesis driver (thesis is technical), so an imminent print argues for standing aside on fresh entries into it.
  • Revenue deceleration trajectory: +83% (Q1'25) → +34% (Q2'25) → +20% (Q3'25) → +32% (Q4'25) → +15% (Q1'26). Sequential plateau ~$190–195M; Q1'26 ($190.9M) was DOWN vs Q4'25 ($195.3M). Q2 guide midpoint (~$190M) implies no sequential ramp; +21% YoY headline is flattered by a soft Q2'25 comp.
  • Key levels: 50-DMA rising ~$17.54, 200-DMA declined to ~$20.30, swing-high resistance $23.82, 52-wk range ~$16.63–$30.03. High-volume reclaim-and-HOLD of the 200-DMA is the momentum trigger; a daily close back below $20.30 kills it.
  • 2026-06-26 breakout: +6.91% to $23.20 on 2.64M sh (~4x the ~646K average), after-hours gave back -2.13% to $22.71. Move is ~2.5 weeks old no fresh company catalyst until the 2026-08-10 print.
  • Cluster/orthogonal read: MediaAlpha (MAX) trades the same carrier ad-spend cycle (Q2 print ~early Aug); PGR/ALL monthly ad-budget commentary is the leading carrier-spend signal. Thin tape (~328K–646K avg daily vol) hard to scale; keep any probe small.
  • Q2'26 guide: rev $185–195M (+21% YoY mid), VMD $55–57M (+23% mid), adj EBITDA $28–30M (+32% mid). $1B annual revenue goal in 2–3 years reiterated on the Q1 call (2026-05-06). Balance sheet: $178.5M cash, zero debt at 2026-03-31 after $19.9M Q1 buybacks. P/E ~7.9, fwd P/E ~10.7.

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