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BBAR

Banco BBVA Argentina S.A.

Argentina country trade re-accelerated: June CPI printed 1.9% MoM on 2026-07-14 (first sub-2% of the cycle) and country risk broke to 402bp, tightest since April 2018, carrying BBAR to a fresh 52-week high of $22.47. Price now sits above every published target while Q1 ROE was 8.3% — the macro is leading, the bank is lagging.

SE

Sea Limited

Three-engine re-acceleration — Shopee GMV +30%, Monee loan book +71%, Garena's best quarter in 5 years — drove a Q1 beat (2026-05-12) and a +19% one-month recovery off the $77 low. Fundamentally accelerating, but the stock is short-term extended above the July 1 Bollinger break and still ~48% under its $199 high, with the Q2 print (~Aug 11) as the next binary.

UGP

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.

Brazilian fuel-distribution margin re-rate (tax-evasion crackdown) plus a live Ipiranga sale process (~R$25-30B; TotalEnergies/Aramco/J&F, BTG advising) is the leg; Q1 net income +151% YoY, sell-side confirming late (B of A upgrade 2026-07-08) into fresh 52-wk highs. 2026-08-12 Q2 print is the next test — momentum firm but PT headroom thin at $6.25 vs $6.50-7.40 targets.

BAK

Braskem S.A.

Parent-level distress in the courts: ~2026-06-26 60-day São Paulo shield plus Chapter 15 in SDNY, Fitch C / S&P default (2026-06-30); management skipping ~$177M July–Aug coupons and pushing an extrajudicial plan (5-yr extension, 100% PIK) that creditors rejected while demanding shareholder burden-sharing. ADR ~$2.47 near 52-wk lows, Street PT ~$1.50, live equity-impairment tail. No momentum leg — a distressed avoid.