Skip to content

Dossier · LSTR · Dormant

LSTR · Landstar System, Inc.

Last analysed ·

Current thesis

LSTR — research research dossier: thesis, invalidation trigger, archetype.

Current Thesis

_(no analysis yet — pending first synthesis or watchlist research)_

Bull Case

_(pending)_

Bear Case

_(pending)_

Setup & Price Structure

_(pending)_

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

_(pending)_

What Would Change Our Mind

_(pending)_

Correlation Notes

_(pending)_

Related · shared themes

ARCB

ArcBest Corporation

Freight/LTL theme is classifier-tagged ACCELERATING with cluster confirmation (ODFL +60% YTD); ARCB fired 6 rules momentum top-1.4% (r1), +31.4pp vs SPX (r2), new-high structure above 50/200-EMA (r3), 1.70x vol (r4) (r10). I want it as a non-AI diversifier. Blocker is operational, NOT extension: live quote is dislocated bid $163.85 / ask $189.48 / last $164 so a marketable IOC at ask×1.002 (~$189.86) chases a phantom offer ~15% above the last print, while a sane ~$164 limit won't fill. Price has actually pulled in ~5% off the $173 ATH, so this is not an extension-defer. Re-engage the instant the spread normalizes and I can buy near the true market.

MEDIUM

CVLG

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.

Freight-cycle inflection play: ~88k carrier authorities exited in 2023-24 and dry-van contract rates turned up again in April 2026, giving trough-earning Covenant heavy operating leverage to the recovery. Stock just tagged a 52-week high (~$47), but Q1 margins worsened YoY, insiders sold the whole run, and price trades ~30% above the $33-35 consensus PT the inflection still has to show in Q2 numbers (~2026-07-22).

MEDIUM

HTLD

Heartland Express, Inc.

Freight-cycle inflection accelerating truckload spot rates +23% off Q4 lows, OTRI past 14%, KNX guiding a sharp Q2 rebound. HTLD has run ~69% in three months to its 52-week high on the recovery and balance-sheet deleveraging, but the operating ratio is still >100 and the stock is pricing the turn well ahead of the P&L.

MEDIUM

KNX

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.

Freight-cycle inflection accelerating: tightening truckload capacity + bid season targeting mid-to-high-single/double-digit contract increases repricing late Q2 into H2 2026, with KNX the bellwether. Analyst PTs cluster $86–94 vs ~$82 spot. The late-July Q2 print ($0.45–0.49 adj-EPS guide) is the binary that proves or breaks the recovery the tape has already paid for.

MEDIUM