MMYT · MakeMyTrip Limited · Stock research

Current Thesis

MakeMyTrip is India's dominant online travel agency MakeMyTrip, Goibibo, and redBus under one roof and the chart right now is a recovery bounce dressed up as momentum. The stock bottomed at $32.67 in the last twelve months, has since run roughly +79% off that low, and closed 2026-07-10 near $58.62, back above both the 50-day (~$46) and 200-day (~$55) moving averages. The proximate catalyst for the recent +32% leg is HSBC's 2026-07-02 initiation at Buy with a $70 target, which put a fresh sell-side stamp on a name the Street already rates a consensus Strong Buy.

The problem: this is not an accelerating narrative, it is a beaten-down leader mean-reverting into a binary print. FY2026 delivered record gross bookings of $10.4B, yet reported net profit roughly halved, and consensus for the Q1 FY2027 report expected around 2026-07-21 models EPS near $0.10 down ~76% YoY on revenue of ~$270.7M (a barely-positive +0.7% YoY). At a ~163x trailing P/E, the print, not the price structure, decides the next leg. Standing aside into the July 21 binary is the disciplined read on a MATURING travel theme.

Bullish and bearish views on MakeMyTrip Limited

The model's bull view on MakeMyTrip Limited (MMYT), in brief: Structural share leader in a large, under-penetrated market. The bear view: Profit is compressing while bookings grow. Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• Structural share leader in a large, under-penetrated market. FY2026 gross bookings hit a record $10.4B, compounding ~34% annually over four years; MMYT is the default booking rail for a rising Indian middle class digitizing travel.
• Fresh sell-side confirmation. HSBC initiated Buy with a $70 PT on 2026-07-02; the broader consensus is Strong Buy with an ~$70-71 average target, ~20-25% above the ~$58 spot as of 2026-07-10.
• Operating leverage is real when it shows. FY2026 operating profit rose +30.1% YoY, with adjusted operating profit improving to $188.8M from $167.3M and margin expanding to 1.82% of gross bookings the model prints cash when mix cooperates.
• Fast-growing non-air segments. FY2026 bus ticketing grew +21.7% and the "others" line +29.6%, diversifying away from thin-margin air and toward higher-take-rate products.
• Price reclaimed the 200-day. The move back above ~$55 flips the intermediate trend positive for the first time since the drawdown from the $104.99 high.

Bear Case

• Profit is compressing while bookings grow. FY2026 net profit roughly halved despite record $10.4B bookings a take-rate/margin story, not a demand story, and margin compression toward ~5% directly tests the high-growth multiple.
• The multiple prices perfection. ~163x trailing P/E on a name whose Q1 EPS is expected to fall ~76% YoY leaves no cushion for a soft print.
• Air ticketing is stalling. FY2026 air revenue slipped -0.7% on a reported basis (+3.3% constant currency), and management flagged geopolitical/macro headwinds on international travel.
• This is a bounce off a -69% drawdown, not a breakout. From the $104.99 high to the $32.67 low and back to ~$58, the stock is still -44% below its peak; +32% recent strength is retracement, not new-high acceleration.
• Binary event risk in-window. A Q1 FY2027 print ~2026-07-21 into decelerating estimates is a coin-flip that can gap the stock 15-25% either way.

Setup & Price Structure

Range over the last year: $32.67 low to $104.99 high. Key moving averages: 50-day ~$46.01, 200-day ~$55.34. Spot ~$58.62 (2026-07-10 close), sitting just above the 200-day and roughly +27% above the 50-day extended short-term but not blow-off. Late June traded a tight $51.56–$54.12 shelf before the HSBC-fueled push through the 200-day. That $51–54 zone is now the reference base: it is the launchpad the recovery leg is built on. Market cap ~$5.56B, down ~48% from peak. The technical picture is mixed rather than one-directional momentum reclaimed the long-term average, but the name is mid-range within a wide, damaged annual band, and the next input is fundamental, not technical.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• ~2026-07-21 (est.) Q1 FY2027 earnings. The binary. Consensus ~$0.10 EPS (-76% YoY) on ~$270.7M revenue (+0.7% YoY). Watch air-ticketing trend, take rate/margin trajectory, and any commentary on international-travel headwinds. A clean beat with margin stabilization re-rates the recovery; a miss on the demanding bar sends it back toward the $46–51 zone.

Elapsed catalysts

• Ongoing sell-side follow-through. HSBC's 2026-07-02 Buy/$70 initiation invites peer analysts to update targets; clustered upgrades post-print would confirm narrative acceleration, while silence into a soft number would not. _(passed 13d ago)_

What Would Change Our Mind

A weekly close below $51 breaks the late-June breakout shelf and forfeits the reclaimed 200-day, flipping the structure back into the $33–46 base and voiding the recovery read. On the fundamental side, a Q1 FY2027 print (~2026-07-21) that shows deeper margin/take-rate compression, another quarter of flat-to-negative air ticketing, and no line of sight to profit re-acceleration would confirm the theme has moved from recovery to structural deceleration regardless of where the bookings headline prints. Conversely, a beat that stabilizes margin and reaccelerates air, with the stock holding above the 200-day, converts this from a stand-aside into a fresh momentum candidate on the post-earnings continuation.

Correlation Notes

MMYT is the cleanest US-listed pure-play on the Indian consumer-travel cycle, so it trades with India-macro sentiment (rupee, domestic aviation capacity, monsoon/GDP prints) more than with US OTAs. Loose read-throughs from global OTAs (Booking, Expedia, Trip.com) apply on sector-wide demand narratives, but MMYT's take-rate and margin story is India-specific and can diverge from the group. Within the travel-leisure theme the name is a MATURING recovery, not an accelerating leader treat peer strength as context, not confirmation, until the July 21 print clears.