TXN · Texas Instruments Incorporated · Stock research

Current Thesis

The analog cyclical trough is a year in the rear-view and the recovery is compounding into an AI-data-center-power re-rate, with Texas Instruments the mega-cap analog proxy. Q1 2026 (reported 2026-04-22) put revenue at $4.83B, +19% YoY, more than $300M above the ~$4.52B consensus, with a newly disclosed Data Center line up ~90% YoY and industrial +30%. That beat is banked. What has changed since mid-June is the sell-side: Stifel lifted its target to $360 (2026-06-24), UBS to $350 (2026-06-29) and Cantor to $340 (2026-06-29) a three-in-a-week cluster that pulls the analyst distribution up toward, and in the bull cases past, the $331.51 all-time high. The catch is timing: those raises land after the move, not ahead of it, and the 2026-07-21 Q2 print is now the binary inside the 30-day window. This is a continuation trade keyed off the ATH rather than a fresh discovery.

Bullish and bearish views on Texas Instruments Incorporated

The model's bull view on Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), in brief: Q1 2026 (2026-04-22): EPS $1.68 vs $1.36 est (+24% beat); revenue +19% YoY Analog $3.92B (+22%), Embedded $723M (+12%, operating profit +205%). The bear view: The late-June PT raises trail the tape: analysts marking targets to $340–360 after a double off the $152.73 low is the kind of coverage that clusters near local tops. Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• Q1 2026 (2026-04-22): EPS $1.68 vs $1.36 est (+24% beat); revenue +19% YoY Analog $3.92B (+22%), Embedded $723M (+12%, operating profit +205%).
• Data Center revenue +~90% YoY and industrial +30% YoY on the Q1 call (2026-04-22): AI capex flows straight into a reported TXN revenue line.
• Q2 2026 guide (issued 2026-04-22): revenue $5.00–5.40B, EPS $1.77–2.05 midpoint above consensus, management leaning into the upturn.
• Late-June PT-raise cluster: Stifel Buy/$360 (2026-06-24), UBS Buy/$350 (2026-06-29), Cantor Neutral/$340 (2026-06-29), stacked on Seaport Buy/$400 (2026-05-22) and BofA Buy/$370 (2026-05-26) the analyst ceiling keeps climbing.
• New product 2026-06-09: industry-first 26-cell, EIS-enabled battery monitor for EVs and grid storage, extending analog content into the energy-storage TAM.
• Silicon Labs $7.5B all-cash acquisition ($231/sh, announced 2026-02-04) cleared its HSR waiting period 2026-05-22; close targeted H1 2027, adding embedded wireless connectivity.

Bear Case

• The late-June PT raises trail the tape: analysts marking targets to $340–360 after a double off the $152.73 low is the kind of coverage that clusters near local tops.
• Backward-looking retail attention is surfacing a 2026-07-02 "how much you'd have made owning TXN over 15 years" piece is the sort of story that appears late in a move.
• AI-hyperscaler capex is the demand engine and it wobbled on 2026-06-22, when GOOGL and MSFT fell up to 6% on hyperscaler-spending concerns; any trim to data-center buildouts hits the +90% Data Center line first.
• Price sits roughly +50% above the 200-DMA (~$204) after nearly doubling off the 52-week low; the crowd has already paid for the recovery.
• ~$280B+ market cap structurally caps velocity a strong outcome here is +25–40% to the outlier targets, not a multi-bagger.
• Heavy fab capex (Sherman, Lehi) weighs on free cash flow; if the cycle stalls, depreciation compresses margins quickly.
• CFO transition: Julie Knecht effective 2026-08-01 (announced 2026-06-02), succeeding Rafael Lizardi a finance-seat change ten days after the print.

Setup & Price Structure

• Structure: 52-week range $152.73–$331.51; the $331.51 all-time high is the pivot the whole tape keys off. The late-June PT-raise cluster has pushed price back toward that ceiling after the early-June consolidation near $308 (2026-06-04).
• 200-DMA near $204 price is roughly +50% above it, an extended stance typical of a mid-to-late cyclical upturn rather than a base.
• The rising 20-EMA (low-$300s and climbing) is the line that defines the continuation; a weekly close through it flips the read from breakout attempt to failed range.
• A clean weekly close above $331.51 is the accelerating trigger that is the level a momentum entry waits for. Buying mid-range ahead of a binary print pays up for a move that has not resolved.
• RSI has worked off the earlier neutral reading as price pressed the highs; a push above the ATH into 2026-07-21 would leave it stretched heading into the print.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• 2026-07-21 (est., confirm date): Q2 2026 earnings the binary. Guide stands at $5.00–5.40B revenue / $1.77–2.05 EPS (set 2026-04-22); the market watches the Data Center and industrial order trajectory and the Q3 guide as much as the headline.
• Ongoing (mid-to-late July): analog-peer prints (ADI, MCHP, ON) around the same window read across to TXN order trends; sequential order declines there would undercut the cycle thesis before TXN reports.
• 2026-08-01: Julie Knecht assumes the CFO seat (announced 2026-06-02) just outside the window but frames the print. No FDA/PDUFA or index events; the earnings date is the only dated TXN-specific catalyst inside 30 days.

Elapsed catalysts

• ~2026-07-16: entry into the three-trading-day pre-print blackout window the setup narrows to stand-aside past that point unless the ATH breaks first. _(passed 3d ago)_

What Would Change Our Mind

• A weekly close below $310 loses the rising 20-EMA and the June consolidation base, converting the breakout attempt into a failed range and signaling the cyclical bid has rolled.
• A Q2 guide (2026-07-21) below the ~$5.0B revenue floor, or a Data Center line that decelerates sequentially, breaks the AI-power growth leg.
• Analog peers (ADI/MCHP/ON) printing sequential order declines would flag the cycle re-rolling industry-wide, not just at TXN.
• A theme flip to SATURATED mainstream, backward-looking coverage crowding out fresh order-driven narrative argues for standing aside rather than paying up near the ATH.
• Conversely, a weekly close above $331.51 on expanding volume confirms the accelerating leg and justifies a fresh momentum entry.

Correlation Notes

• Trades with the analog-cyclical complex ADI, MCHP, ON, NXPI more than with the AI-GPU names; peer order commentary moves TXN.
• Second-order exposure to hyperscaler capex (GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META): the 2026-06-22 hyperscaler sell-off shows the Data Center line is hostage to buildout budgets.
• Rate-sensitive as a ~$280B+ mega-cap; a Fed-drift-higher macro compresses the multiple and the AI-capex cycle together.
• Silicon Labs (SLAB) deal ($231/sh cash) ties a floor under SLAB and layers embedded/wireless integration risk onto TXN for 2027, well beyond the current trade horizon.