Monday, March 9, 2026

Market Regime

RISK-OFF the regime engine's close-of-day read (flagged at the premarket scan). The prior regime (Mar 6) was a stagflation scare driven by Brent at $89–90, a −92K nonfarm-payrolls miss, and the Hormuz shutdown carrying into the new week.

Market Notes

• The tape stayed defensive into the close; leadership sat in defensive and low-volatility clusters broad-market and investment-grade credit ETFs alongside a handful of high-volume small caps.
• The Mar-6 stagflation thesis stayed active on the research board XLE/DVN energy names remain the cleanest expression, invalidated on a ceasefire or Brent back below $75.

Status

Regime RISK-OFF on the public ledger for 2026-03-09 a defensive, observe-and-wait tape. Research only no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L.