space-economy theme · 15 dossiers

Deal-arb leg impaired: RKLB closed $63.91 on 2026-07-24, its first close under the $67.50 collar floor, locking the exchange ratio at 0.4000 so IRDM's payout now falls with RKLB one-for-one. At RKLB $58.60 (2026-07-29) the package marks…

The broken 2H26 revenue leg now has replacement dates: BlueBirds 11-13 launch 2026-08-05 and the Q2 call lands 2026-08-10. But the stock enters both ~28% below its 50- and 200-day averages, and Scotiabank's 7/29 upgrade carries a $50.80…

The $21 break condition fired: PL closed $20.47 on 7/24 (-8.5%, heaviest volume since 7/16), bottomed at a $19.47 close on 7/29 and ended 7/31 at $20.48 — ~60% under the 5/28 $51.40 high, below a $31.16 50-DMA and $25.85 200-DMA. The…

Inclusion-flow leg spent; the post-IPO markdown has taken out every June reference — $112.55 close 2026-07-29, all-time low $107.01 on 07-28, ~50% off the $225.64 high. What's left is a 72-hour binary: first-ever earnings 2026-08-04, then…

Defense-backlog re-fire interrupts the mid-July rollover: the 7/20 $17B NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 qualification and 7/21 $266M suborbital award stabilized the tape after the 7/13 support break and Piper's 7/16 Neutral $83 cap. An unresolved…

Closed-end SpaceX proxy whose entire bull case — the pre-IPO scarcity premium — is now dead: SpaceX trades publicly (SPCX, $135 IPO 2026-06-12, ran to $225, back near ~$145 lows by 2026-07-10). DXYZ's premium has collapsed from ~151% (May)…

Narrative and price have fully decoupled: FLY stacked a $144M CLPS award, a Moon BASE seat and a $13M Mars subcontract into a -47% drawdown, falling 9.6% on 7/16 on the awards headline itself. At $19.27 vs a $45 IPO price and 31% below the…

The June 30 NASA Moon BASE award ($148.3M Nova-C) bought exactly one green session before the stock broke: seven straight down days into 2026-07-13 for -24.5%, -36.5% on the month, $13.80 on 2026-07-18 versus a $38.55 May high. A live…

Post-SpaceX-IPO deflation broke RDW to a 2026-07-18 low near $8.51 (~67% off the 5/28 record). A relief bounce on Huntsville/Indiana facility news and $41.5M of H1 Stalker drone orders keeps running into a ~$850M dilution ceiling: the…

Highest-beta space-narrative small-cap (~+496% YTD, 15.6% short) whose dominant SpaceX-IPO catalyst sold off (2026-06-12, -11.44%). Rocket Lab's $8B Iridium deal (2026-06-29) re-fired the theme, but SATL is a sub-scale, GAAP-unprofitable…

Dead sentiment vehicle in the give-back phase: the Russell add faded, SPCX public since 2026-06-12 gutted the SpaceX-proxy premium, and CFO turnover (Khalili effective 2026-07-27) lands right after ~$158.5M of dilution. Round-tripped from…

Space-launch-satellite theme re-accelerated into July (07-06), yet Spire trades as its smallest, highest-beta laggard. Live legs: a European defense pivot (Diehl Defence MoU 06-10, Munich 100-sat/yr line) and residual SpaceX-IPO proxy flow…

The June AI-data-center re-rating has failed its retest: $62.06 on 2026-07-17 is -22% from the 2026-06-22 high of $79.82 and back under the early-June breakout base, with a $1.5B convertible overhang and a 7% selloff that ignored a BofA…

Cyclical modular-space leasing recovery with a small data-center kicker and an activist/M&A floor, but range-bound and digesting: shares drifted to ~$26 under the $31.88 high after the 2026-06-27 Russell growth-index removal. The confirmed…

Roll-up execution leg is spent: ALL.SPACE ($300M, closed 2026-07-08) and Solestial (~$67M) both closed on schedule, yet YSS made fresh lows near $17.93 — the tape is pricing Wolfpack's unrefuted claim that the Pentagon killed the SDA…