Filtered library · Archetype
a2 Cyclical recovery · 69 dossiers
Dossiers classified as a2 Cyclical recovery — 69 names, each with its thesis, invalidation trigger and catalyst calendar.
All dossiersAEHR
freshAMD
freshASML
freshAVGO
freshQ2 FY26 (2026-06-03) printed a monster — $30B AI-semi bookings vs $10.8B shipped (2.8x book-to-bill) + $100B FY27 AI guide — but the stock SOLD THE NEWS on a beat-and-reiterate. Fundamentals ACCELERATING, tape now MATURING. The binary we…
AXTI
freshInP-substrate pick-and-shovel for the AI optical-interconnect boom. Q1 (4/30) inflected: InP >50% of rev, record $100M backlog, Q2 guided to first profitability in years. Theme ACCELERATING (NVIDIA $4B optics bet, photonics ETF). Stock…
EWY
freshMemory super-cycle PROVEN and still tightening (DRAM Q2 +58–63% QoQ, sold out through 2026). Our 5/23 "saturated" SKIP at [entry redacted] [trade redacted] as EWY ripped to $214.53 (6/3), ~1.5% under the 52-wk high. Theme ACCELERATING +…
LITE
freshPost-print -8.45% sell-the-news fully reversed: LITE flashed a "key trading signal" at $866.97 on 2026-06-01 and ripped +7%, reclaiming the pre-print high (dossier setup-b trigger) on Nasdaq-100 inclusion + Tiger Global buying. But a REX…
MU
freshTSEM
freshQ1 print (2026-05-13) confirmed the bull case — operating profit ~doubled on AI tailwinds, GM expanded, Q2 guide raised, stock +17%. Theme ACCELERATING, but sell-side caught up (PTs $300–335, 2026-05-14) and the catalyst is spent; next…
AAOI
freshOptical/photonics-transceiver leader survived its ~2026-05-08 Q1 print and ran to 400%+ YTD, but the theme has flipped ACCELERATING→SATURATED: dedicated photonics ETF launched (2026-05-13), MEME/leveraged-ETF retail flows, record $1.3T…
AMSC
freshData-center grid-power pick-and-shovel; backlog +40% YoY to ~$280M, Q4 orders ~$100M. But 2026-05-28 beat sold off on soft Q1 margin guide ($0.17 adj vs $0.24 est) — gapped ~9%, then -8.8% on Jun 3 to $46.67. Narrative accelerating, price…
NVDA
freshQ1 FY27 binary cleared (~5/28); April''s custom-silicon scare never broke the stock and the AI-capex tape is RE-ACCELERATING — TSMC flags multi-year capacity shortage + price hikes (6/04), semi mania resuming, AMD/STM cluster ripping.…
VRT
freshLiquid-cooling sub-narrative re-accelerating inside a now-mature AI-power theme: Goldman blessed it "the next AI trade" (5/24), NVIDIA SmartRun digital-twin deepened the moat (6/1), TD Cowen took street-high PT to $387 (5/20). Pullback…
COHR
freshGLW
freshAI-optical/glass picks-and-shovels narrative has gone fully public — Mizuho PT $220 (5/12), photonics ETF launch (5/13), Cathie Wood "blasts from the past" (5/11) = saturation tell, not an entry. [trade redacted] on the 5/19 buy-the-news…
QCOM
fresh[trade redacted] a week ago (entry [entry redacted] → [entry redacted]) on an exhaustion breakout. Broad AI-chip theme still ACCELERATING (fresh records 6/02), but QCOM''s own leg is MATURING/late: now spiking up retail most-searched…
COHU
freshCOHU re-rated from cyclical handset/auto-test laggard into AI-compute test play: Q1 orders +57% YoY, FY26 guide raised to +20-25%, sell-side upgrading $33→$54+ in the past month. Eclipse xPU handler + Neon HBM inspection are the…
CRDO
AI-interconnect royalty narrative re-accelerating: DustPhotonics $750M buy on 2026-04-13 pivots CRDO from copper AEC to optical/CPO just as 3 sell-side inits/upgrades land in 7 days (Jefferies $175, Needham $220, GS $170). Fresh breakout…
IESC
freshData-center electrical-infrastructure "shovels" play; Q2 FY26 (rpt 2026-05-01) backlog +62% to record $3.9B, Communications +35% on AI buildout. Narrative accelerating fundamentally, but stock +180% YoY near $737 ATH with no catalyst until…
MDB
freshAtlas re-accelerated to +29.4% YoY (record $117M sequential add) at the 2026-05-28 Q1 print, refuting the 2025 'consumption maturing' bear case; beat-and-raise triggered 15+ PT hikes and an +18.5% gap. AI-database narrative ACCELERATING…
MRVL
Google-Marvell TPU/AI-chip partnership talks (2026-04-20) just added a third hyperscaler ASIC customer on top of AWS Trainium + MSFT MAIA — narrative velocity stepped up overnight, and Q1 FY27 print ~2026-05-28 is the binary that either…
MTSI
freshAI optical-interconnect picks-and-shovels narrative accelerating: MACOM raised FY26 data-center growth from 35-40% to >60% on the Q2 call (reported ~late Apr) and guided Q3 rev +~15% QoQ to $331-339M. Strength is the setup — but it''s…
ONTO
HBM/advanced-packaging metrology narrative accelerating: 2026-04-16 dual pre-announce (Q1 raised to $292M, Q2 guide $320-330M vs $303M Street) triggered 6 sell-side upgrades in 14d (highest PT $350). Q1 print ~2026-05-07 is the binary —…
TTMI
freshAI+defense PCB picks-and-shovels accelerating: Q1 (4/29) beat-and-raise, rev +30%, book-to-bill 1.41, backlog $1.6B; sell-side cluster-upgraded 5/28 (PTs $205-215) with price ~$189.60 still below every target. Strength IS the setup — no…
ACLS
freshMemory-capex pick-and-shovel re-rating + pending all-stock Veeco merger have driven ACLS +83% in 3mo to $158.78 (golden cross, B.Riley PT $180). But FY26 revenue is FLAT and DCF fair value ~$92 — the entire move is forward narrative, gated…
AEIS
freshPicks-and-shovels AI-datacenter power re-rating: DC Computing revenue doubled to $194.2M in Q1 (5/4) and the 6/3 ADH 800V DC-DC converter launch plugs AEIS into NVIDIA Rubin-era 800V HVDC racks. But tradable leg is MATURING — $312 still…
AGX
Pure-play EPC for hyperscaler gas-fired data-center power; narrative ACCELERATING but crowded. Near-term binary is hyperscaler FY26 capex commentary in late-April prints (MSFT/GOOGL/META/AMZN). Q1 FY27 print ~2026-06-04 is the next…
ALGM
freshSleepy auto/industrial sensor maker re-rating into an AI-data-center-power content story; DC hit a record 14% of Q4 sales (2026-05-07) and grows >20% in FY27, with Jefferies bumping PT $45→$62. Narrative accelerating, but ~$50 sits above…
AMBA
freshEdge-AI/physical-AI silicon re-rating. 2026-05-28 Q1 FY27 print was modest, but same-day $800M+/10yr Hanwha co-development deal flipped the narrative to a physical-AI arms dealer. Stock at ~$73 vs fresh analyst PTs $96-$120, RSI ~51 —…
ARM
freshBHE
freshEMS arms-dealer to the AI buildout: AC&C +41% YoY (liquid-cooling for AI data centers) + semi-cap recovery drove a FY26 guide raise to 9–10% on the 2026-04-29 print. Narrative real and accelerating, but the stock already 2.4x''d off lows…
CIEN
Optical picks-and-shovels on AI DCI / WaveLogic-7 1.6T cycle. Triple PT re-rate in 4 days (JPM/BofA $550 on 2026-04-16, MS $405 on 2026-04-20) = sell-side chasing; real binary is LITE/COHR prints ~2026-05-07/08, then CIEN Q2 ~2026-06-05.
CLS
AI-hyperscaler networking picks-and-shovels narrative re-accelerating as sell-side chases higher (BofA $430, JPM $410, Cowen $350 all raised in last 4 sessions), but Q1 2026 print inside 7 trading days = binary gate. Defer aggressive…
CYRX
freshCGT cold-chain picks-and-shovels re-rating on biotech funding recovery + FDA manufacturing-flexibility tailwind; commercial CGT revenue +26% YoY, FY guide raised at the May 4 print, Craig-Hallum street-high $20 PT (6/3). But +148% off…
DELL
freshINOD
freshAI training-data pure-play; Q1 (2026-05-07) blew out — rev $90.1M +54% YoY, beat by 18%, FY guide raised to ~40%+, other Big Tech customers +453%. Theme ACCELERATING but stock is at a fresh $119 ATH, +92% off the print and now meeting…
KEYS
Picks-and-shovels AI-infra validation play. Spirent integration + 1.6T optical / custom-silicon test cycle just had Goldman PT raised to $384 (2026-04-14) — first top-5 desk catching the narrative we want to be already long into. Q2 FY26…
LGN
Post-secondary clearing trade on Blackstone-backed HVAC/mechanical roll-up re-badged as AI data-center power/cooling pick-and-shovel. 2026-04-08 block at $54 cleared the overhang; GS $72 / Tigress $85 PT bumps on 2026-04-16 re-rated the…
MPWR
freshAI data-center power narrative ACCELERATING — Enterprise Data nearly doubled YoY to $262.8M in Q1 (rpt 4/30), Q2 guide $890-910M implies more ramp. But $1,625 (6/2) sits above EVERY sell-side PT, 54% over GF Value, with a 2X leveraged ETF…
MRX
Commodity-broker roll-up compounder: $500M notes (2026-04-17) reloads M&A war chest, KBW reinstated Outperform $60 PT (2026-04-08) sets sell-side re-rating frame. Binary is Q1 2026 print (~mid-May). Special-sits/compounder, not…
MYRG
freshAI/datacenter power-buildout lifting grid electrical contractors; MYRG printed record Q1 (rev $1.0B +20%, EPS $2.99 beat ~45%, backlog $2.84B) on 2026-04-29 and is rolling up capacity (Valley ~$328M, 05-27). Theme ACCELERATING +…
NET
freshCyber + agentic-AI pick-and-shovel narrative accelerating: Anthropic partnership (5-19), record cyber-ETF melt-up (HACK/BUG ATHs), and Voidzero/Vite acquisition (6-04) deepening the dev-platform moat. But the May move is a post-earnings…
OUST
freshLidar-for-Physical-AI narrative accelerating: defense counter-drone (Argus, May 26) + robotics perception (FieldAI, Jun 2) + analyst hikes (Rosenblatt $53, May 27) drove daily 52-wk highs. But +281% in 12mo, RSI 71, price 45-80% above MAs…
PI
freshRAIN RFID recovery accelerating: Q1 (2026-04-29) endpoint-IC bookings hit an all-time record on a custom-ASIC ramp + retailer rebuys, and Q2 guide steps revenue ~40% sequentially to $103-106M (EPS $0.14→~$0.80). Post-inventory-correction…
RMBS
freshAI-memory-interface royalty (DDR5 RCD + HBM4E IP) re-rating hard: Q1 product rev +15% YoY, Q2 guide +11% seq, ATH $174.10 on 2026-06-03. ACCELERATING + cluster-confirmed, but price now sits ~25–50% above every sell-side target —…
SMTC
AI-connectivity pick-and-shovel: CopperEdge ACC attaches to every GB200/GB300 rack. Two PT hikes in 72h (B. Riley $122, Benchmark $120) + spotlight-list mention signal pre-print re-rate; 2026-06-04 FQ1 FY27 print is the binary, with…
SNDK
freshSPXC
freshVCYT
freshProfitable precision-oncology dx compounder: practice-changing ASCO data (OPTIMA breast + ENZAMET prostate, 2026-05-30) on top of a Q1 beat-and-raise (EPS $0.52 vs ~$0.31, 2026-05-05) drove +40% in a month to 52-wk highs. But both binaries…
YSS
freshSpace-defense vertical-integration roll-up accelerating: York beat Q1 (rev $116M vs $110M est, 2026-05-14), affirmed FY26 $545-595M guide, won defense IDIQs (2026-05-06), and bolted on ALL.SPACE satcom + Solestial space-solar (May 18-19).…
AIP
[Stage 1 WATCH] Arteris royalty re-accel, rule 4 fires (1.58x vol), RSI 66 healthy, small-float — valid but correlated into the AI-chip cluster already anchored by held TSM/NVDA.
ALRIB
ALRIB = Riber S.A. (EPA:ALRIB), French MBE tool maker. ROSIE silicon-photonics/BTO platform narrative accelerating (+270% 6mo, US + Japan orders Sep-25/Jan-26), BUT no US ADR/OTC → untradable on Alpaca. Use as theme card for US cousins…
AMKR
Picks-and-shovels AI-packaging play (#2 global OSAT, Arizona CHIPS-Act fab + Apple multi-year deal) but narrative is MATURING not accelerating, OSAT margin structure caps re-rating, and Q1 '26 earnings are inside the 3–10 trading-day…
AOSL
Power-discrete AI-content second-derivative play; B. Riley PT raise to $25 (2026-04-13) + two-session momentum tape (2026-04-14, 2026-04-20) = narrative discovery phase into FY26 Q3 print (~2026-05-06). Binary on earnings; no confirmed AI…
ATI
freshAerospace/defense materials supercycle picks-and-shovels — ATI titanium/superalloys into the jet-engine + airframe build. Stock ripped +11% to a new ATH ($183.30) post Q1 beat-and-raise, but now trades AT consensus PT (~$179.56) with no…
AVGX
2x daily-leveraged ETF on Broadcom (AVGO), not a stock. Custom-silicon hyperscaler-ASIC narrative is MATURING (AVGX +195% TTM). Only a tactical tool for short-window catalyst trades into AVGO Q2 FY26 print (~2026-06-05 est.). Leveraged-ETF…
CDNL
Dormant micro-cap civil contractor just printed a $24M data-center contract (2026-04-09) and got tagged into the M&A/activism/special-sits basket — potential picks-and-shovels + special-sits double-catalyst, but ticker-to-entity mapping,…
FORM
HBM probe-card picks-and-shovels play into ~2026-05-06 Q1 print. Street PTs raised to $125/$130 (Cantor/B. Riley Apr 2026) but B. Riley simultaneously downgraded to Neutral — re-rate done, guide is the binary. Dormant, no entry without…
ICHR
Semicap subsystem proxy on 2026 WFE re-acceleration; B. Riley PT $75 (2026-04-13) flags sell-side building conviction, but LRCX print 2026-04-24 is the read-through bomb and ICHR's own Q1 (~2026-05-07) is a hard binary. DORMANT until one…
INDI
freshAutomotive ADAS-silicon design-win story improving — $7.4B backlog, $25M 77GHz radar order, NIO vision ramp (Q1 print 2026-05-07). But Q1 rev only +3% YoY, deep $38.9M GAAP op loss, Q2 growth partly Wuxi-consolidation, and next catalyst…
SITM
[Stage 1 WATCH] MEMS-timing picks-and-shovels Stifel $500 PT; RSI 76.6 extended, top 0.3% momentum but cluster covered by GFS/ARM PRIORITIZE picks
SMCI
freshMay margin-recovery rip (+68%) off the Q3 FY26 beat is rolling over — two distribution days, price back at the 50-DMA (~$47.5), Mizuho PT $44 below spot, first leveraged SMCI ETF launched 6/1 = late-stage retail saturation. Faded…
STX
[Stage 1 DEFER] Q3 FY26 earnings ~4/29 (1 trading day), RSI 78.2 extreme, sell-side now chasing ($582→$595→$605 in 14d) = late-cycle distribution setup; dossier mandates DEFER through print.
TER
Semicap-test pure-play with clustered analyst PT raises ($400–$415) into a binary Q1 print window ~2026-04-22 to 2026-04-24. DORMANT in the 72h earnings blackout; post-print reaction bar decides if this goes ACTIVE long or gets skipped on…
UCTT
Second-order semicap play on LRCX/AMAT WFE spend (~70% customer concentration). Thesis is structurally intact (HBM capex, Products GM recovery) but tactically locked out — LRCX prints 2026-04-23 AMC and UCTT prints ~2026-04-29, both inside…
USD
fresh2x-leveraged semis basket on the AI-chip buildout: fundamentals ripping (WW semi rev +79% YoY, AVGO AI +143% in the June-3 print) but the tape is digesting AVGO''s "beat-but-no-FY27-guide-raise" sell-the-news while SOXX sits overbought.…
VECO
freshPicks-and-shovels semicap into AI capex: Q1 (2026-05-05) double-missed but stock gapped +21% on a >$250M multi-customer order book + affirmed FY26 sales guide above consensus. Recovery-not-acceleration story; the +21% pop is ~a month stale…
WDC
Pure-play HDD picks-and-shovels leg of AI data-infra; sell-side drift up (Citi $405, MS $380) into fiscal Q3 print ~2026-04-29/05-01. Stock is in the Hormuz-rally cohort so materially extended — the print + MSFT/META/AMZN capex guides in…
XSD
freshMemory super-cycle + rally broadening beyond mega-caps is XSD''s leg: modified-equal-weight tilts to MaxLinear/Astera/Navitas/Marvell, not NVDA. But fresh entry at the 52-wk high ([entry redacted]) into SMH weekly RSI>80 (all-time, 5th…