a0 Uncategorised · 83 dossiers

[Stage 1 WATCH] RSI 75 with negative -95% Stocktwits velocity and no dossier; SHLS carries the industrial-power cluster cleaner today — consistent with three prior WATCH calls.

[Stage 1 DEFER] Theme ai-mag7 MATURING + edge +6.7pp barely passes 5pp floor + RSI 82.5 parabolic quarter-credit + $4T mega-cap dilutes alpha on $5k book

[Stage 1 WATCH] Cyber ACCEL theme but rule_3 fails (not within 10% 52w high) and retail velocity -4% — FROG cleaner expression but also untradeable, theme covered

[Stage 1 WATCH] AI-chip-infra-memory cohort duplicate of TSM but no dossier, RSI 75.9 extended, rule 3 fails — TSM wins the slot in this theme cluster.

[Stage 1 WATCH] small-cap-ai ACCEL but RSI 88.5 extreme (most parabolic), thin recent-IPO float, no dossier — chasing parabolic blind, deferred 4x; cleaner cluster names exist.

[Stage 1 WATCH] YieldMax AMD options-overlay ETF — covered-call structure caps upside on the exact narrative-momentum leg we want; AMD direct exposure preferred, not in candidate set today.

[Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] Outpacing SGMT in same biotech-precision theme (+57pp vs +51pp, momentum top 1%); fresh untested name — Stage 2 should decide whether to add or rotate from SGMT.

[Stage 1 WATCH] OSAT chip proxy, 5 rules, but rule 10=0 (not in any registry theme today), ~104% above 200-DMA, P/E 53, Nvidia-Halo trade gone mainstream — extended/late with no cluster confirm.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Korea-Asia semi-beta fresh theme conf 0.70; RSI 71.9 healthy + Stocktwits +100% but no dossier yet — wait for setup development and theme confirmation

[Stage 1 WATCH] industrial-power-AI tag but cheap commodity cyclical, sell-side Neutral, price above avg PT, historically ~15% wide spread — chasing a +11% spike is poor R/R.

[Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] NEW autonomous theme ACCEL conf 0.72 — McLane Berkshire-Hathaway driverless freight live in TX, Needham $13 PT, RSI 82 parabolic but fresh structural catalyst

Thesis remains intact — industrial-power-ai theme ACCELERATING (0.94 conf), Q4 beat + FY27 guide affirmed, dual PT raises to $152/$169, rules 1/3/5/6 firing with Stocktwits velocity flipping to +223% (vs -42% last week). BUT execution is…

[Stage 1 WATCH] Autonomous theme NEW but no dossier yet; AUR is cleaner thematic expression with concrete McLane catalyst today

[Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] small-cap-ai ACCEL, cleanest RSI in the cluster (52.8, fully reset), +78.6pp vs SPX, raised guide + Lake St $11; below 52w high (rule 3 fail) caps it to a LOW probe.

[Stage 1 DEFER] Biotech archetype-5 binary catalyst with 5/15 extended-FU Phase 3 conference call ~2 trading days out — hard earnings-blackout rule applies, no fresh entries within 3 TD of binary.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Chip cluster UBS $42 PT, RSI 75 extended, no dossier, negative velocity — cluster covered by stronger held names.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Thesis broken — Q1 EPS miss + Morgan Stanley PT cut to $12, rule 3 broken (50<200); theme tag by-association only — track for a genuine narrative re-fire, not a buy.

[Stage 1 WATCH] 5 rules + Stocktwits +149% but RSI 77.5 extended, no theme membership, no dossier — single-name chase without cluster edge.

[Stage 1 DEFER] Health-managed-care MATURING, velocity-only setup (Stocktwits +197% with rule_10 attention flat), no cluster confirm — defensive late-cycle rotation

[Stage 1 DEFER] Health-managed-care theme conf 0.48 (weakest in set), velocity-only confirm, no dossier — defensive late-cycle rotation, weakest expression of the cluster

[Stage 1 WATCH] Laggard rare-earth name vs MP ([trade redacted] and theme leader); rule_2 edge fails (-1.31pp), no dossier — MP carries the commodity-materials-rare-earths exposure already

[Stage 1 WATCH] Solar-energy-transition new probe theme conf only 0.55 + RSI 76.9 extended + rule 10 fails (attention flat) — first sighting, no comparative edge, wait for theme conviction lift.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Resurrected 3D-printing retail narrative, no registry theme, no dossier, RSI 68; no comparative edge vs accelerating clusters — deferred prior, consistent.

[Stage 1 WATCH] RSI 88.6 extreme parabolic with no narrative confirm — rule 5 didn''t fire, late-cycle blowoff in cooling cohort

[Stage 1 WATCH] 5 rules + Stocktwits +196% but no theme membership, first sighting (no dossier), no cluster confirm — single-name retail signal, no edge today.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Fresh biotech-precision seed today: RSI 70, Stocktwits +367%, top 1.3% momentum — compelling early narrative but theme MATURING + no dossier; track for theme re-acceleration.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Space-satellite private-exposure SPAC, no dossier body, Stocktwits +164% — RKLB is the cleaner cluster expression with actual dossier and post-Q1 binary cleared.

[Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] Critical-minerals cluster confirm with held MP: Canadian C$145M govt convertible + IRR raise, theme ACCEL 0.88, Stocktwits +172%, RSI 63.5 healthy, no dossier yet — clean LOW-probe candidate.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Industrial-power-AI cluster duplicate of SHLS but RSI 77 parabolic and theme attention flat — SHLS is the cleaner expression today, consistent with three prior WATCH calls.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Stocktwits +335% but vol ratio 0.25x (extreme contraction), no dossier, biotech-precision MATURING — single-day flash with no follow-through

[Stage 1 WATCH] small-cap-ai ACCEL but post +85% AH blowoff, rule 3 broken, -94% velocity, no dossier; cluster covered by the cleaner BLZE probe.

[Stage 1 WATCH] space-satellite ACCEL but RSI 81 parabolic, 4 rules, no real dossier; weaker expression than PL — cluster already covered by the PL probe.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Networking-optical post-Q3 record but ''don''t thank Nvidia'' (telecom-driven), edge fails rule_2, negative velocity — COHR/GLW are the held cluster expression.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Industrial-power new seed, Stocktwits +367% but rule_3 compute failed, options history 1d, no dossier — premature; STRL carries cluster.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Cyber-security-software ACCEL but flagged 15% bid/ask spread + RSI 77 parabolic on 0.76x volume — structurally untradeable today

[Stage 1 WATCH] AI mag7 MATURING, no dossier, edge +9.3pp barely above floor — mega-cap dilutes alpha on $5k book

[Stage 1 WATCH] AI-chip missed runner consistent with prior 4 WATCH calls: cluster already covered via TSM/ARM, no 52w-high break, theme MATURING — correlated duplicate, no incremental edge.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Oil-energy-geopolitical ACCEL but correlated duplicate of WTI with weaker structure (50<200-EMA fails); WTI is the cleaner expression of the same fresh catalyst.

[Stage 1 WATCH] M&A activism theme MATURING (conf 0.62); Q1 FFO beat + FY26 guide raise but theme rolled over with no cluster confirmation — single-name special-sit not narrative-momentum.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Space basket beta with no dossier and SpaceX-IPO halo only — RKLB stop-out frees no slot, no comparative edge

[Stage 1 WATCH] RSI 88.7 extreme, no theme, no dossier, +107pp vs SPX on first sighting — no cluster context, no fundamental tether; classic late-stage blowoff trap.

[Stage 1 DEFER] Earnings tonight 4/29 AMC — inside earnings blackout; theme MATURING (AI Mag-7 platforms); RSI 74 extended on momentum-only setup with empty dossier.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Stocktwits +367% spike but no registry theme membership, no dossier, no comparative edge vs cluster-confirmed names — pure retail-velocity signal.

[Stage 1 WATCH] 2x leveraged NVDA — correlated duplicate; if the synthesis approves NVDA exposure, take it via NVDA/TSM not levered ETF in NEUTRAL regime.

[Stage 1 DEFER] Health-managed-care MATURING; Q1 cleared with only Equal-Weight/Neutral PT bumps (Barclays $21, Baird $19, Wolfe PP) — defensive rotation not narrative momentum

[Stage 1 WATCH] small-cap-ai ACCEL but rule 3 broken (50<200), RSI 78 parabolic, negative velocity, no dossier; correlated chase-dup of held WEST — deferred 4x.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Merger-arb (SWKS buying $32.50 + 0.96sh), upside capped at deal value, downside binary on deal-break; the 52w-high/RSI signals are SWKS artifacts — outside the momentum edge.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Q1 miss + $350M dilutive offering announced 5/6 broke the thesis; sliding tape since, no dossier — narrative-broken, track for new setup not entry.

[Stage 1 WATCH] EMS chip-adjacent post-Q2 beat, RSI 83 parabolic, no dossier — cluster covered by larger names

[Stage 1 WATCH] Space-satellite ACCEL but no dossier, $12M Greek contract isolated headline — RKLB carries the cluster

[Stage 1 WATCH] fintech, rule 3 broken (below 52w high), crypto-financials theme MATURING, no current theme membership/dossier — no cluster confirm, retail-velocity only.

[Stage 1 WATCH] biotech-precision MATURING (rule 10 fails), RSI 73 + retail-distribution blowoff pattern, no named clinical catalyst — deferred 3x consistently; track for a milestone or theme re-accel.

[Stage 1 DEFER] CFO exit + 16% layoffs + analyst PT dispersion $5.25-$15 = restructuring story, not narrative-momentum; theme MATURING — off-playbook regardless of momentum rank

[Stage 1 WATCH] 3x leveraged semi ETF, decay risk on parabolic leg, chip exposure already covered via held NVDA/TSM — redundant beta.

[Stage 1 WATCH] space-satellite ACCEL but only 4 rules, no dossier, weakest space expression; PL carries the cluster probe.

[Stage 1 WATCH] RSI 77 parabolic chip cluster name, no synthesis, negative velocity — correlated dup of cluster picks already prioritized.

[Stage 1 WATCH] 3x leveraged Nasdaq ETF; rule 10 fails on attention flat + chip cluster covered by direct names; decay risk

[Stage 1 WATCH] industrial-power-AI fundamentals accelerate (backlog $301M) but pivot-top sell signal 5/11 + 192 insider sells / 0 buys; broken price structure — track for a $300 reclaim, don''t catch the knife.

[Stage 1 WATCH] Industrial-power-AI #2 — secondary to VRT in same theme; RSI 74.9 extended, vol only 0.60x, no built dossier; only relevant on relative-strength signal vs VRT.

[Stage 1 PRIORITIZE] analog-components 3rd cluster confirmer, 5 rules, +102.5pp vs SPX; RSI 84.7 parabolic + no dossier ranks it behind QCOM/SIMO — LOW probe, not benched (accelerating cluster name).

[Stage 1 WATCH] small-cap-ai ACCEL but RSI 83 parabolic (most extended in cluster), no dossier, correlated dup; consistent with 4 prior WATCH calls.